Perbanyak Membaca dan Berpikir

Selama 6 tahun terakhir perjalanan investasi saham, saya telah mempelajari tentang beberapa investor hebat di dunia dan membongkar karakteristik yang membuat mereka sukses berinvestasi saham. Mereka lebih banyak mengandalkan kreativitas dan intuisi serta menghabiakan waktu untuk membaca dan mempelajari banyak hal dari orang-orang hebat.

Sementara sekolah bisnis di seluruh dunia memfokuskan banyak waktu untuk mengajar siswa cara menghitung rumus, metode valuasi yang banyak jenisnya, menghitung DCF, membuat proyeksi, menyusun spreadsheet, dan saya belum menemukan Master Investasi yang terkenal dengan terlalu mengandalkan rumus-rumus keuangan yang ribet.

Coba simak beberapa statement berikut:

"I don't use a computer or a calculator. If you need to use a computer or calculator to make the calculation, you shouldn't buy it...It should scream at you...we do not sit down with spreadsheets and do all that sort of thing. We just see something that obviously is better than anything else around that we understand — and then we act." Warren Buffett

"In general, I haven't run spreadsheets and I find that, if there is a need to run a spreadsheet, that is a red flag to take a pass." Mohnish Pabrai

“Everybody wants a formal model. And it’s encouraged by computers. Berkshire Hathaway has gotten to its present place with zero in the way of formal models. Or have you been hiding them from me [Warren]?” Charlie Munger

Saya tidak mengatakan bahwa memahami neraca keuangan, laporan arus kas, dan laporan laba rugi itu tidak penting. Analisis kuantitatif berdasarkan Laporan Keuangan juga diperlukan tetapi investor-investor hebat juga menghabiskan waktu mereka untuk membaca, berpikir, berfokus pada analisis kualitatif dan menguji ide mereka. Saya belum pernah mendengar mereka berkata, "Yang saya lakukan hanyalah duduk, membuka laporan keuangan, menyusun spreadsheet dan menghitung rumus sepanjang hari."

Jadi mengapa mereka yang sukses berinvestasi saham tidak menghabiskan waktu mereka untuk menyusun rumus-rumus ribet ke dalam spreadsheet seperti yang dilakukan kebanyakan analis Wall Street atau analis pasar? Karena mereka menganggap analisis kuantitatif berdasarkan angka dan rumus memiliki keterbatasan. Diantaranya:


1. Berpotensi menjebak kita dalam ‘rear-view mirror’

Jika kita berkendara terutama di medan yang menanjak dan berbelok, tentu kita harus memfokuskan pandangan kita ke depan, dan jangan sering-sering melihat kaca spion karena itu dapat membahayakan. Ini analogi bahwa terlalu mengandalkan laporan keuangan dalam menganalisis suatu saham juga berbahaya.

Biasanya seorang analis akan membangun model spreadsheet dengan memasukkan data keuangan lima tahun terakhir kemudian membuat proyeksi kinerja keuangan di tahun-tahun mendatang. Masalahnya adalah data yang ditampilkan adalah data masa lampau. Yang menentukan keberhasilan suatu perusahaan untuk meningkatkan nilainya adalah apa yang akan terjadi di masa depan, bukan yang sudah ditorehkan di tahun-tahun sebelumnya.

Oke, data historis dapat memberikan wawasan yang berguna tentang tren pendapatan perusahaan, kualitas neraca dan seberapa menarik margin keuntungannya, serta memberikan dasar untuk membandingkan perusahaan dengan pesaingnya. Tetapi masa depan mungkin terlihat sangat berbeda dengan masa lalu. Rasio keuangan dapat berguna untuk ekstrapolasi, tetapi tidak bisa diandalkan dalam hal memprediksi perubahan keadaan. Ini sama relevannya dengan hari ini mengingat terjadinya pandemi covid-19 yang mengganggu kinerja perusahaan hebat sekalipun.

"The qualitative analysis is even more important than the quantitative analysis because quantitative is always a lagging indicator. By the time you see it in the numbers, it's often too late." C.T Fitzpatrick

"One cannot analyse events until they have already happened. Numbers, the 'oxygen' of analysis, lag behind reality. Analytic methodology is ineffective in identifying change in the early stages and thus contributes to what Marshall McLuhan refers to as man's tendency to walk into the future looking in the rear-view mirror." Bennett Goodspeed

"Data is backward looking and it is the future that will determine our returns." Jake Rosser

"Avoid over-relying on numbers and models. Investors often feel comfortable with numbers and models because they appear definitive. However, they can be misleading because they often are based on historical data that may not be repeatable or are based on assumptions that may not prove valid." Ed Wachenheim

"Typically, analysts evaluating the future prospects of a company look at its past. Where else can they look, after all? And yet, even if they had a perfect snapshot of the past, they would be mistaken to assume that the conditions that held in the past will hold in the present or future" Leon Levy

Sebagi contoh, dulu ada perusahaan sektor ritel yang rasio keuangannya sangat mantap. ROE konsisten di atas 70% dan margin profit juga tebal dibandingkan emiten ritel lainnya. Namun, ketika terjadi krisis ekonomi, terjadi pandemi, diberlakukannya PSBB, maka perusahaan ini pun mengalami pukulan telak. Dan rasanya sulit untuk mencoba bangkit dan mengulangi kinerja manis yang mereka torehlan dulu.

Ada juga perusahaan produsen minuman alkohol yang memilili rasio keuangan yang sangat mantap di masa lalu, ketika terjadi perlambatan ekonomi seperti yang masih kita alami hingga saat ini, kinerja perusahaan ini pun ikut terpuruk. Mau contoh lainnya? Banyak kita temukan di emiten energy, konstruksi, bahkan produsen rokok. Dahulu mereka menghasilkan kinerja yang baik berdasarkan angka keuangan, namun ketika terjadi dinamika atau perubahan, mereka pun turut melemah.


2. Menjadikan terlalu percaya diri

Studi menunjukkan bahwa semakin banyak informasi yang dimiliki seseorang, semakin besar kemungkinan mereka menjadi terlalu percaya diri. Dan lebih banyak informasi tidak selalu berarti lebih menguntungkan. Ingat, kerendahan hati adalah unsur utama keberhasilan investasi.

Seorang analis atau investor yang suka berhitung atau mengandalkan rumus rasio-rasio yang ribet biasanya berisiko menjadi terlalu berkomitmen pada idenya: "Saya telah membuat spreadsheet 5.000 baris, saya pasti benar!"; atau menjadi terpaku pada hasil spreadsheet: "berdasarkan rumus si ‘anu formula’ mengatakan saham ini valuasinya $ x, ini pasti benar."

"I’m reminded of a study which showed that as the number of variables requiring analysis increase, the odds of success decline, yet the confidence of participants soar due to extensive time and energy invested." Allan Mecham

"The harder you work, the more confidence you get. But you may be working on something that is false" Charlie Munger

"[Computer] models can lull decision makers into a false sense of security and thereby increase their chances of making a really huge mistake" Warren Buffett

"Far too many people treat numbers like sacred totems offering divine insight. The truly numerate know that numbers are tools, nothing more, and their quality can range from wretched to superb" Philip Tetlock

"When forecasters have too much information, they often become even more inaccurate than when there is too little. Research on horse handicappers and other studies indicate that only early information affects one's decisions. Once the decision is made, additional information, even when contradictory, will not cause the person to change his mind. In fact, as more and more information becomes available, it only reinforces his belief. Additional information does not increase the quality of decision making, only the certainty of conviction. It only adds a false sense of security.” Bennett Goodspeed


3. Bias dan informasi yang tidak lengkap

Einstein pernah berlata "Not everything that counts can be counted." Ini adalah salah satu kutipan yang tepat untuk berinvestasi. Ada banyak faktor penting yang tidak dapat dihitung, tidak tertera dalam laporan keuangan, ataupun book value perusahaan. Faktor-faktor ini malah lebih sering memberikan hasil yang baik dalam berinvestasi saham. Charlie Munger pernah berbicara tentang efek 'Lollapalooza' di mana sejumlah keunggulan dan kekuatan (yang tidak bisa dihitung) bersama-sama memperkuat hasil positif.

Ada banyak faktor kualitatif yang merupakan pendorong penting keberhasilan perusahaan, antara lain: business model, kualitas intangible-assets, budaya dan nilai perusahaan, kualitas manajemen, kemampuan alokasi modal oleh manajemen, inovasi, network effect, skalabilitas, perkembangan industri, persaingan dan lain-lain yang ke semuanya itu tidak bisa dihitung. Sayangnya, kebanyakan investor terlalu hobi menghitung dan mengandalkan rumus sehingga mereka mengabaikan faktor-faktor kualitatif tersebut.

"When we analyze a business, we pay close attention to the qualitative and intangible variables –such factors are often difficult to ‘model’. We are uneasy with fancy numerical models .. which have almost ubiquitous acceptance by the high priests of modern finance. We believe one is susceptible to gaining a false sense of security, which can result in mental slothfulness and neglect. In the case of models, analysts tend to overweight what can be measured in numerical form, even when the key variable(s) cannot easily be expressed in neat, crisp numbers. The ‘model’ behind our largest investment required nothing more than sixth grade math, and a napkin – not a sophisticated spreadsheet capable of more numbers than I’m capable of counting." Allan Mecham

"You’ve got a complex system and it spews out a lot of wonderful numbers that enable you to measure some factors. But there are other factors that are terribly important and there’s no precise numbering you can put to these factors. You know they’re important, but you don’t have the numbers. Well practically everybody overweighs the stuff that can be numbered, because it yields to the statistical techniques they’re taught in academia, and doesn’t mix in the hard-to-measure stuff that may be more important.” Charlie Munger

"In our evolution as investors, one of the things we have discovered is that it is often the things that don’t get measured that have a greater magnitude on investment returns than what is measured. That is to say, the numbers don’t provide all the clues. It is often qualitative factors such as company culture, management’s approach toward capital allocation, or customer service, that can yield critical insights into a company’s sources of competitive advantage. In fact, an advantage premised upon qualitative factors can often be more enduring." Jake Rosser

“Much of what investing is has an important qualitative element to it as well. It’s about using your judgment when evaluating leadership and managerial skills—something you can do only by synthesizing information in a way that often does not lend itself to computation. It’s about the judgment needed to reconcile data points that support diametrically opposed conclusions.” Paul Hilal

“Every company has 100 things about them you could study and learn. But you have to understand the differences between data and knowledge, and between knowledge and wisdom. Warren Buffett is remarkable in his ability to cut right through. He sees very clearly the three or four or five critical factors that determine whether a company succeeds or fails. It’s not about encyclopedic knowledge, it’s about zeroing in on what truly matters and assessing that. There’s no substitute for that in this business." Howard Marks

"Our approach stresses the importance of wisdom by subtraction. We endeavour to look past the non-essential details and tune out the often deafening noise. We want to identify the “essence” of each business. So, for instance, what is it about MasterCard that enables them to generate after-tax margins approaching forty percent? Why have the Rales brothers, first with Danaher and second with Colfax, been so successful buying and fixing businesses? How has Markel managed to compound book value per share at fifteen percent for the past twenty years despite falling interest rates and a competitive underwriting environment?" Chris Cerrone

“No matter how many decimal places you go out to in excel, you're not going to find critical judgement in a spreadsheet. So a clear understanding of a compounders sources of competitive advantage is critical for owning one for long periods of time.” Jeff Mueller

“I think if somebody is terribly interested in the details, they really are missing the whole picture. Because you could have known every detail of our textile business in 1965, and we could give you the information as to how much we made from linings and how much we made from handkerchiefs, and you’d be in a different world. I mean, the important thing was how we looked at running money and what we would do about things over time… But going into a whole lot of detail that might be very interesting to an analyst, but really for the shareholder, they’ve got to make a decision as to who’s running their money, and how they’re running it, and what they’ve done over time, and what they hope to do in the future, and how to measure that.” Warren Buffett

"I have seen so many cases where there is a complex model that is exactly wrong. This focus on a model may cause you to move away from thinking about the competitive advantages of the business. Then you are making decisions based on all these numbers rather than thinking about whether this is one of the ten businesses that you would like to own." Glenn Greenberg

"Models are supposed to simplify things, which is why even the best models are flawed.” Philip Tetlock

“Nobody’s got a lock on what’s right, a model is only a model and it’s not fixed in stone.” Bill Stewart

“Just like the map is not the terrain, the spreadsheet is not the business.” Ben Horowitz

"This is the virtue of models: They exclude information not directly relevant to the question under consideration, allowing us to focus on the significance of particular variables. This is also the vice of models: If the discarded information proves decisive to the issue being analyzed, the model will fail." Andy Redleaf


Saudara-saudara, jelas sudah investor yang sukses di seluruh dunia lebih mengandalkan analisis kualitatif dibandingkan kuantitatif. Alih-alih menghabiskan hari-hari mereka menghitung rumus keuangan, para Master Investasi lebih senang membaca, berpikir, fokus pada data kualitatif dan menguji ide mereka. Pun dalam hal melakukan valuasi saham, mereka menjadikannya tetap sederhana. Analisis kuantitatif mereka gunakan lebih untuk mengonfirmasi analisis kualitatif yang sebelumnya mereka lakukan.

Saya menyarankan Anda, sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi pada saham, jawablah pertanyaan ini: Apakah keunggulan saya? Sektor apa yang saya pahami sesuai dengan lingkaran kompetensi saya? Apakah ini bisnis yang bagus? Apakah saya mengerti bisnisnya? Bagaimana produk atau jasa yang ditawarkan perusahaan? Apakah produk perusahaan diregulasi secara ketat? Apakah produknya bersifat consumable atau durable? Apa keunggulan kompetitif bisnis ini? Siapa supplier mereka? Bagaimana jaringan distribusinya? Apakah bisnis akan terus berkembang? Apa saja hal yang bisa membunuh bisnis? Akankah teknologi meningkatkan atau menghancurkan bisnis? Apakah perusahaan bisa bertahan di masa sulit? Siapa manajemennya? Apakah manajemen menghargai stakeholdernya? Apakah manajemen turut memiliki saham perusahaan? Bagaimana track record capital allocation mereka? Berapa harga yang tepat untuk bisnis ini? Apakah ini kesempatan yang baik untuk membeli? Apa yang tidak saya ketahui tentang bisnis ini? dll.

“I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking." Warren Buffett

"I just spend all my time thinking, reading, and adapting as best as I can." Thomas Gayner

“We read and think.” Ed Wachenheim

“Warren and I do more reading and thinking and less doing than most people in business.” Charlie Munger

"Most individuals, including securities analysts, feel more comfortable projecting current fundamentals into the future than projecting changes what will occur in the future. Current fundamentals are based on known information. Future fundamentals are based on unknowns. Predicting the future from unknowns requires the efforts of thinking, assigning probabilities, and sticking one's neck out - all efforts that human beings too often prefer to avoid." Ed Wachenheim

Jika analisis kualitatif lebih banyak membantu, lalu bagaimana melakukannya dengan baik? Anda bisa membacanya di sini: https://stockbit.com/post/3579709

Dulunya, mereka lebih mengandalkan analisis kuantitatif, namun seiring berjalannya waktu, mereka merubah gaya analisis mereka dan lebih menekankan pada analisis kualitatif.

"Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.” Peter Thiel

“Interesting enough, although I consider myself to be primarily in the quantitative school, the really sensational ideas I have had over the years have been heavily weighted toward the qualitative side where I have had a 'high probability insight'. This is what causes the cash register to really sing. So the really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions, at least in my opinion.” Warren Buffett

"The quantitative side of what we do is easy, to be honest with you. You don't have to have much more than a sixth-grade mathematics education to spot a potentially interesting investment proposition.... I would say the qualitative side of what we do consumes 95% of our time because that's the hard part." John Harris

"[My] only evolution .. in my own framework of looking at businesses, is that I pay more attention to the qualitative factors around a business than the quantitative. In the past I used to be much more focused on the quantitative." Mohnish Pabrai

"While we can run spreadsheets with the best of them, we really emphasize understanding the qualitative factors that drive the numbers. Market shares. Competitive advantages. The secular and cyclical impacts on the industry. Management’s skill in allocating capital. The goal is to identify companies in which we have a great deal of confidence that their values are going to continue to compound as we own them." C.T Fitzpatrick

"It's tempting when you start out to think your knowledge about finance and valuation will lead you to all the answers, but I now put more emphasis on qualitative than quantitative analysis" Jake Rosser

“We are qualitative. We’re qualitative because the determinants of value over time are qualitative.” Brian Bares

“Our process is very qualitative. What we’re trying to think about are what are the drivers? Where will the revenues of this company be 5 or 10 years from now? What are the competitive advantages which is really getting into questions about profitability and margins? But what is the corporate culture? What is it that makes this business special? Why can’t somebody else do it? And we think if we can answer some of these more causative questions, I think it gets you to broadly correct answers. The left of the decimal point, if you will. And I see much more value in this.” Tom Slater

“It’s not about the numbers. For most investments the factors that will drive long term success don’t have much to do with spreadsheets. They have to do with something other, either understanding human nature or understanding nuances about how certain aspects of how things work rather than running spreadsheet.” Mohnish Pabrai

"It is easy to drown in the ocean of available facts while underestimating the few important qualitative aspects of a business that should enable it to do well going forward." Larry Pitkowski

“I think the most common tendency of young investment professionals is to rely almost entirely on quantitative skills and ignore qualitative positives or negatives of businesses and their managers. I was no exception. It is really just natural because fresh graduates have better quantitative skills than their bosses. And if you’ve got the biggest hammer, you want everything to look like a nail. But I can’t think of one investment we’ve made where we developed an advantage over other investors by ‘outmodeling’ them. With experience comes an appreciation for the qualitatives that are hard to incorporate in a model. Our most successful stocks typically include a differentiated point of view on the quality of management or the quality of the business.” Bill Nygren

"I started out very influenced by Graham, so I emphasized quantitative factors. Charlie came along and said I was all wrong, and that he’d learned more in law than I’d learned in financial studies and everything, and that I should think more about qualitative factors, and he was right. And Phil Fisher said the same thing.” Warren Buffett

Analisis kualitatif bergantung pada pengetahuan, yang dapat diperoleh dari membaca dan berpikir dan melalukan riset secara langsung ke lapangan dan kalau bisa kita memiliki akses ke stakeholder perusahaan seperti supllier, karyawan, mantan karyawan, pelanggan untuk menggali informasi yang lebih dalam dan kemudian menyatukan semua informasi itu menjadi sebuah ide yang berharga.

Faktor kualitatif inilah yang lebih membantu untuk memberikan gambaran yang lebih jelas terhadap apa yang akan terjadi pada perusahaan di masa yang akan datang, sehingga ini sangat berguna untuk long term investment. Perusahaan boleh saja memiliki rasio keuangan yang cantik dimasa lalu, tapi bisakah ia mempertahankan kinerja tersebut ke depan bahkan dalam kondisi ekonomi sedang gonjang-ganjing?

Ketergantungan yang berlebihan pada rumus dan angka-angka keuangan dapat membuat Anda buta terhadap risiko tertentu. Berapa sering kita temukan bahkan di forum ini, mereka yang kita kira hebat dan handal justru pernah terjebak membeli saham perusahaan buruk karena lebih mengandalkan faktor kuantitatif.

Apabila Anda mengikuti tulisan-tulisan saya berkaitan dengan analisis atau membedah potensi suatu emiten, maka Anda akan menemukan bahwa saya lebih menonjolkan faktor kualitatif. Contohnya:

$SMSM https://stockbit.com/post/3237515
$SIDO https://stockbit.com/post/3423410
$EKAD https://stockbit.com/post/3697735

Oh ya, ada hal menarik. Dalam kolom komentar di tulisan saya tentang SIDO, ada user yang mendebat saya mengenai alasan saya membeli SIDO di 2015 lalu. User ini heran, karena penjualan SIDO sejak 2012 mengalami kontraksi dan terus melambat hingga 2015. Lagi-lagi ini adalah bukti bahwa sangat banyak orang yang terlalu menekankan pada angka-angka masa lalu. Ingat ya, data masa lalu hanyalah history. Yang terpenting adalah bagaimana kita bisa yakin bahwa ke depan kinerja perusahaan akan terus membaik dan ini membutuhkan kreativitas.

Disitu saya menjawab, Penjualan SIDO yang lambat disebabkan oleh kapasitas produksi yang tidak dapat memenuhi permintaan yang besar, dan saya mengetahui bahwa ke depan manajemen berkomitmen dan berencana untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi dengan membangun pabrik baru. Dan terbukti pada akhir 2018 pabrik COD II sudah rampung sehingga kapasitas produksi meningkat dari 80juta sachet/bulan menjadi maksimal 180juta sachet/bulan. Alhasil sejak saat itu, penjualan SIDO mengalami peningkatan double digit di tahun-tahun selanjutnya.

Bagaimana saya bisa tahu bahwa ke depan SIDO akan meningkatkan kapasitas produksi dan berkontribusi pada peningkatan sales? Ya karena saya senang MEMBACA hehehe.

Last, jika Anda cukup mahir dalam menganalisa laporan keuangan, maka asah lagi kemampuan untuk memprediksi bagaimana kondisi perusahaan di masa depan. Itulah “edge” yang sesungguhnya yang harus kita miliki sebagai investor jangka panjang.

Happy investing!