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𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠

Base rate investing is an approach to making investment decisions that rely on statistical data to assess the probability of an investment's success.

This method is based on the concept of the base rate fallacy, which is a tendency in decision-making to ignore base rate information (general information) and focus on specific information (information only about the case at hand).

In investing, this fallacy can lead people to overestimate the significance of recent events or specific news about a company, while underestimating the importance of long-term, general trends. By focusing on base rates, investors aim to correct this bias. They look at how similar investments have performed under similar conditions.

For example, if considering investing in a tech startup, an investor might look at the historical success rate of similar startups in the same industry, at the same stage of development, and possibly in the same geographical area. This base rate then serves as a benchmark to evaluate the expected success of the current investment opportunity.

Base rate investing encourages a more disciplined, data-driven approach, reducing the impact of emotional reactions to market news or events. It aligns with principles found in behavioral finance, which studies how psychological influences and biases affect the financial behaviors of investors.

By considering the base rates, investors can make better decisions, taking into account the broader statistical realities of investment outcomes. This doesn't mean ignoring specific information about the investment opportunity; rather, it means integrating this specific information with the base rates to form a more balanced and comprehensive view of potential risks and returns.

𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐯𝐬. 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐰
Imagine you're trying to guess how many candies are in a big jar. There are two ways you could make your guess:

*𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐰: This is like looking at the jar and thinking only about what you see right before you. For example, you might think, "This jar is huge, and candies are small, so there must be many candies in there!" This view focuses on the specific situation and details you're directly observing or know about.

*𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐰: This is like stepping back and thinking about how many candies were in other jars you've seen before that were about the same size. Instead of just thinking about this one jar, you remember, "Last time I saw a jar this big, it had about 100 candies." This view doesn't focus on the jar's details in front of you but on what happened in similar situations in the past.

𝐈𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐤 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮'𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭. 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐚 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐚 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐦𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐚𝐰𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬.

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐲, 𝐢𝐧 𝐬𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐮𝐜𝐤 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭, 𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐥𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞, 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠.

How does this framework work in practice when analyzing stocks? Well, it’s quite simple. You can apply this framework to almost every metric/ratio when forecasting a company’s future.

*You've discovered a young company with a net profit margin of 30%, while the average for its industry hovers around 10%. It's reasonable to anticipate that, over time, this company's net profit margin will move closer to the industry average, unless the company proves to be an exceptional outlier.

*A company is currently trading at 50x Sales. Historically, how frequently have stocks maintained such high trading multiples? And how often did their valuation reverse to the mean?

*A CEO declares an ambitious target to increase sales by 30% annually over the next decade. A standard approach by a Wall Street analyst would involve a detailed bottom-up analysis, examining the company's product lineup, potential market size, and achievable market share. However, a reader of this writing would take a different approach, questioning the feasibility of such growth by comparing it with similar cases in an appropriate reference class, considering factors like the company's current market capitalization, its industry, and the distinctiveness of its product.

*A company is experiencing consistent growth in Free Cash Flow (FCF) year over year, yet its stock price remains stagnant. Typically, since a stock price often aligns with FCF trends, this scenario could present an attractive buying opportunity.

*A company sells exciting software and Wall Street is in love with it and sends the stock higher and higher, but the debt is getting out of control? Guess how this will end? The same way it has ended for all companies that were Wall Street darlings but couldn’t produce any internal fuel (Free Cash Flow) to keep the business running.

Not only can you apply the base rate to an external reference class, but you can also use it within the company itself. This method has been a part of my toolkit, especially when a company announces initiatives like a "restructuring plan" or a "5-year innovation plan."

We can evaluate their history with similar strategic plans, and check their execution success and forecast accuracy. This approach helps me form a clearer expectation for their current plans. Here, the reference class is the company's management and their track record in similar past situations.

Investing requires a holistic approach. Unfortunately, many investors concentrate too much on the detailed, inside view and overlook the broader, outside view. Blending these perspectives yields the most effective insights because it offers a comprehensive view of a company. This underscores the importance of understanding stock market history for investment success.

New investors often seek quick results, not recognizing that building knowledge and experience takes time. It's after several years that you'll become adept at forecasting a stock's movement, thanks to your accumulated experiences (your reference group).

$TOTL $CASS $SMSM

“𝐀 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐤𝐲 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰 𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐬. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞.”

The philosophy that investors can extract from the sentences is that long-term, sustainable, and high-level success requires a foundation of patience, discipline, and strong fundamentals. For an investor, this means that rapid, speculative gains are unsustainable if not supported by solid research and a resilient strategy.

𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩 𝐑𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐬
*Fundamental Analysis: Just as roots provide nutrients, you must deeply understand what you are investing in before expecting growth. A solid foundation is built on analyzing balance sheets, competitive advantages (moats), and management quality, rather than chasing hype.

*Patience and Time: Strong roots do not grow overnight. Similarly, compound interest requires a long-term perspective (time in the market) rather than quick trading.

*Intrinsic Value: Investing in companies with real value allows the portfolio to "grow" rather than just jump in price.

𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝
*Managing Volatility: Being "grounded" means remaining steady when the market "winds" blow. It implies having a risk management strategy (diversification) that prevents a market downturn from destroying your portfolio.

*Emotional Discipline: It refers to staying humble and not letting greed or ego dictate investments. A grounded investor does not chase the latest, overvalued trend but stays within their circle of competence.

𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐤𝐲
*Sustainable Wealth: The goal is not just a quick profit, but a portfolio that can grow high and withstand storms (recessions or crashes).

*Compounding: The ultimate "rise" in investment is the compounding of returns over decades, which is only possible if the initial "roots" (capital) are not destroyed by reckless risk.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐮𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬.

$TOTL $SMSM $CASS

Bacaan teman ngopi Anda sore ini. Semoga bermanfaat!

Asymmetry is the holy grail in finance. The initial return profile of buying a stock is symmetrical. If a stock goes up 25%, you make 25%, and vice versa, if a stock goes down 25%, you lose 25%.

Yet over the long term, it is certainly not symmetrical. The risk-reward asymmetry becomes compelling. When buying a stock, the downside is capped at 100%, but the upside is theoretically unlimited, with potential returns of 10x, 20x, or 50x. Each long stock position functions like a long call option, and a portfolio of stocks effectively resembles a giant long call option payoff.

Asymmetry is the holy grail in investing, where over a long time, in heads, you don’t lose a lot, and in tails, you win increasingly more.

Let’s start with 100 equally invested in Stock A and B. The price of Stock A keeps rising 25% every year, and Stock B keeps declining 25% every year. (shown in picture 1 below)

In the first year, the value of Stock A rises 25% to 125, and Stock B declines 25% to 75. The portfolio value remains unchanged at 200 with 0% returns (not good).

At the end of year 5, Stock A rose ~3X to 305, and Stock B has declined by 76% to 24. The portfolio value is 329, with a cumulative return of 64% and an annualized return of 10.5% p.a. (good).

At the end of year 10, Stock A rose ~9.3X to 931, and Stock B has declined 94% to 6. The portfolio value is 937, with a cumulative return of 368% and an annualized return of 16.7% p.a. (strong).

At the end of year 20, Stock A is an 86-bagger to 8674, and Stock B has declined 99.7% to 0.30. The portfolio value is 8,674, with a cumulative return of 4237% and an annualized return of 20.7% p.a. (very strong).

While we acknowledge that the assumptions are highly simplistic:
(1) a constant 50% batting average
(2) an equal-weighted two-stock portfolio
(3) both stocks rising and declining at the same rate,

the following lessons are instructive.

*𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫, 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭. If you have a winner, a little is all you need, and even if you do have a loser, it doesn’t matter. Asymmetry does not exist in discrete time periods, but shows up over time. (as illustrated in picture 2)

*𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞. Returns take time to show up, only if the winners are held. Being able to hold on to winners and not trim them allows one to keep growing cumulative returns exponentially and annualized returns towards steady-state rates of 20%-22%+ p.a. after 10-20 years. (as illustrated in picture 3)

*𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐬 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐡𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐭 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐤, 𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞. The gains from the multi bagger winners will keep growing, increasingly offsetting the losers’ combined losses many times over. The losers don’t matter. The winners do. (as illustrated in picture 4)

*𝐒𝐮𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 (<𝟏𝟎 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬) 𝐨𝐫 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐝 (>𝟑𝟎 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬). If one is overly concentrated, and if a winner becomes overly large or runs into single-position limits, one eventually has to trim the winner. Constantly trimming your flowers, not allowing your winners to run, and watering your weeds are among the worst things one can do. Sufficient diversification by owning more stocks allows one to have a better risk appetite and more patience to hold on to winners, especially when they experience inevitable large price declines along the way.

Compounding increases at an increasing rate on the upside and decreases at a decreasing rate on the downside. That makes it the eighth wonder of the world. Gains grow faster, and losses shrink slower. Those who understand this asymmetry earn it. Those who don’t, pay it. Find winners, hold them, and let time bend the curve in your favor.

$CASS $ADES $TOTL

If a business does not generate attractive returns on the capital it already employs, adding more capital rarely fixes the problem. Most growth narratives fail this test surprisingly quickly.

Of course, there is an exception. Some businesses deliberately operate with depressed returns in the early stages of their expansion in order to build scale, density or infrastructure that will support structurally higher margins in the future.

This is common in platform models, logistics-heavy networks and certain consumer ecosystems. In these cases, short-term ROIC can look unattractive while long-term economics may still be compelling.

The problem is that this narrative is extremely easy to sell. Almost every low-return growth story claims that operating leverage, scale and future efficiency will eventually transform the business into a high-return compounder. But very few actually do.

The distinction between genuine scale-driven economics and permanent structural inefficiency is one of the hardest and most important judgments an investor has to make.

Investors should be especially skeptical when the improvement in returns depends primarily on optimistic assumptions about future margins, rather than on visible changes in cost structure, asset intensity or pricing power.

Growth is not the objective. Value creation is. When a business already earns high returns on capital, growth amplifies a good spread. It turns competitive advantage into compounding.

When a business earns poor returns on capital, growth only amplifies a bad spread. It scales inefficiency, not value. This is why the most dangerous words in investing are, “Returns will improve later.” Sometimes they do. Most of the time, they don’t.

And while growth stories may look impressive in earnings calls and investor decks, only one thing compounds your wealth over time. Reinvesting capital at returns meaningfully above its cost.

Everything else is just a bigger business. Not a more valuable one.

$TOTL $NAIK $BLOG

$TOTL

Kemaren ada pembuat konten yang bikin konten tentang, "kalau semua orang jadi long term investor dan nggak ada yang scalper/BSJP/BPJS, nanti long term investors mau beli nggak ada yang mau jual karena semua hold."

Bro lupa kalau market itu bukan cuma lapak jualan 1001 saham, tapi tempat bertemunya jutaan orang dengan latar belakang berbeda, status sosieokonomi berbeda, sejarah personal finance yang berbeda, dan pastinya... tujuan keuangan yang berbeda

Misalnya disaat saya baru mulai nabung dana pensiun sejak setahun terakhir, ada ratusan ribu pensiunan yang udah nabung dana pensiun mereka sejak 2 dekade lebih yang lalu, dan sekarang lah saat mereka withdraw berkala dan sudah tidak lagi menambah kontribusi baru ataupun reinvestasi

Atau di saat saya baru mulai nabung buat tabungan liburan ke Pyongyang 5 tahun lagi, ada yang udah nabung buat tabungan liburan ke Cambodia sejak 5 tahun yang lalu, dan sekarang waktunya mereka take profit buat pesan tiket di $BAYU atau $GIAA

Selang sehari, bro langsung ditampar realita dengan pelemahan IHSG hari ini. Apakah koreksi karena MSCI? Saya rasa MSCI udah priced-in dari kemarin-kemarin, begitu juga Moody's, FTSE, dll.

Fakta yang paling certain adalah long weekend. Orang-orang kaya yang merencanakan liburan dengan passive income, pasti ada yang memutuskan bahwa inilah waktu yang tepat untuk take profit. Atau bisa juga hari ini 'gesek' kartu kredit, baru cicilannya ditutup dari profit

Alasan yang sama saya sangat respek sama pakde saya, Pakde Jajang walaupun beliau bentar beli $TOTL bentar jual. Sultan mah bebas masbro. Saya yang masih dalam wealth accumulation phase, pastinya buy, buy, and buy. Naik buy, turun buy, sideways buy. Tapi Pakde Jajang sudah tidak lagi di wealth accumulation phase. Maka dengan latar belakang yang berbeda, pasti beliau punya tujuan keuangan yang berbeda dengan saya. Tapi kami tetap punya kesamaan visi: sama-sama memiliki wonderful business yang dijalankan oleh manajemen dengan GCG yang super

Jadi, pembeda antara terjun ke market demi tujuan keuangan vs hanya menjadi pelumas market dan exit liquidity, bukan ditentukan oleh keputusan buy, hold, dan sell. Semua orang bisa memutuskan yang mana saja, saya pun sepekan atau sebulan sekali pasti ada sell, bukan buy terus apalagi hold doang

Yang membedakan antara memanfaatkan market demi tujuan keuangan vs dimanfaatkan kepentingan untuk menjadi pelumas market adalah:

1. Apakah kita memiliki bisnis yang kita pahami, atau angka digital yang tidak kita ketahui underlying instrumennya, atau hanya merasa tahu karena influencers bilang narasi-narasi tertentu?

2. Apakah kita buy karena tujuan keuangan, hold karena tujuan keuangan, dan sell karena tujuan keuangan, atau buy karena influencers bilang entry di sekian, hold karena influencers bilang story growth-nya masih panjang, dan sell karena influencers bilang TP/SL di sekian?

$TOTL

$TOTL GR akun terus, siapa ya?

$TOTL pak jajang minta ampau nya

Investasi pada dasarnya adalah tindakan menunda/mengurangi konsumsi aset saat ini demi mendapatkan lebih banyak benefit di masa depan. Kesalahan manusia pada umumnya adalah membatasi definisi aset ini hanya pada aset uang saja. Padahal, semestinya juga mencakup juga aset-aset lain seperti waktu, human capital (knowledge,energy,health) dan social capital (networks, relationships).

Seorang yang hiperaktif di bursa saham, meskipun memperoleh keuntungan besar dalam aset uang, mungkin tidak menyadari bahwa terdapat banyak cost lain yang terjadi padanya akibat aktivitas tersebut. Ini disebut dengan hidden costs. By definition, ini berarti orang tersebut melakukan hal yang sebaliknya dari investasi, yaitu mengekstrak future value of life demi keuntungan dan kesenangan hari ini.

Contohnya:
*Aset waktu yang terpakai saat ini akibat terlalu sibuk di depan monitor, mungkin termasuk misallocated time, yang akan merusak aset relationships dengan anggota keluarga, teman, rekan kerja, dll. Ketika aset ini deteriorating, maka nilai hidup kita di masa depan akan menurun.
*Aset energi yang terkuras, menyebabkan penurunan kesehatan, baik fisik maupun mental. Implikasinya, kualitas nilai hidup di masa depan akan menurun kalau badan dan jiwa sakit-sakitan, apalagi kalau amit-amit malah memperpendek umur.
*Waktu dan energi yang seharusnya dipakai untuk menambah pengetahuan, malah digunakan untuk menatap grafik dengan intens. Akibatnya, nilai aset pengetahuan kita tidak bertumbuh dengan semestinya.

Semua yang sifatnya “yang penting cepat” akan selalu punya extra costs, hidden or not, yang tidak tertulis di laporan P&L. What appears today as money gain, might actually be loss in aggregate when combined with other assets.

Sebaliknya, investasi yang rasional dengan kecepatan yang normal, punya little to no hidden costs. Ia tidak mengekstrasi future value dari aset masa depannya untuk kemenangan hari ini. Ia tidak pula overspend waktu dan energi dalam aktivitasnya. Investasi rasional juga tidak merusak hubungan dengan anggota keluarga, teman, dll. In fact, investasi rasional ini menanamkan bibit-bibit berbobot hari ini agar buahnya yang bernilai lebih dapat dinikmati di masa depan. Tidak hanya sekedar uang, tapi juga aset penting lainnya.

Tetapi manusia, sebagai hewan yang dilengkapi dengan akal dan budi, seringkali tak bertindak semestinya. Kemilau hari ini selalu diutamakan daripada terang di hari esok, tak peduli ia hanyalah pinjaman berbunga mahal dari masa depan. They are proud and justifying wrongs at all cost, and intend to shape many generations ahead toward the same path.

Hope that you are not one of those.

$TOTL $MSTI $IPCC

$TOTL 10 Feb 26
Investor: DJADJANG TANUWIDJAJA
Action: BUY
Shares Traded: +122,300 (+0.0036%)
Current: 374,678,940 (10.9877%)
Previous: 374,556,640 (10.9841%)
Broker: TP
Investor Type: Domestic
Source: KSEI

$TOTL kurang menarik, tapi ada kemungkinan naik untuk jualan

$TOTL siapa sih yg refill mulu.. udah d haka banyak padahal

$TOTL jajang, kemarin crash ikutan...sekarang naik tinggi gak ikutan??? benalu ente

$TOTL izin nanya, kira kira lapkeu q4 keluar kapan ya? 🙏

$TOTL ada 3 tembok hari ni🤨

$TOTL optimis ke 1200 saat jelang cum date.

Sehari-harinya, saya masih di kuadran kiri atas. Tapi kalau di bursa, saya maunya di kanan bawah donk.

Rusak donk kualitas hidup kalau jadi double kuli... 🤣

$TOTL $BRIS $SMSM

$TOTL

@Aboenchannel gini ya, insider itu kalo jual saham alasan nya bisa macem2. blm tentu karena gk yakin sm perusahaan nya. tp kalo insider itu beli, alesan nya cuma 1: dia mikir saham nya bakalan naik. paham kau? ngga usah ngmg 2-3 bulan dah. bos Djajang itu hold $TOTL mungkin udah dari jaman lu masih di dalem biji bapa lo kali. ngga usah sok2an ngajarin ikan berenang dah 🤣

@Aditya0624 yaelah cm jual segitu doang mah turun 1 tik jg ngga $TOTL

@Aditya0624 cuma 500 lot itu pak djadjang jual $TOTL cuma buat duit sehari2 aja, bukan buat guyur wlwkwkkw

Waktu kita mencari perusahaan yang bagus buat berinvestasi, kita maunya ROIC di atas cost of capital dan ROE nya di atas cost of equity, beserta valuasinya menarik, agar tercipta value lebih.

Nah, sama juga kalau portofolio kita diibaratkan sebagai sebuah perusahaan keuangan, kita maunya portofolio kita ROE nya juga di atas cost of equity, supaya dari waktu ke waktu ada peningkatan value dan grow.

Jadi kalau ada investor yang puas di ROE 8% setahun, sementara opportunity cost of equity ada di 12%, maka sebenarnya portofolio dia kalau di go-public kan, PBV di marketnya akan jadi nol koma alias terdiskon.

Makin dia top-up, makin rusak value portofolionya. Tapi kalimat pembelaannya biasanya gini:

"Yang penting cuan itu bukan persen, tapi rupiahnya."

Benarkah demikian?

$TOTL $SMSM $CITA

kalo pak djadjang punya stockbit. pasti beliau senyum senyum lihat postingan kalian $TOTL

$TOTL 06 Feb 26
Investor: DJADJANG TANUWIDJAJA
Action: SELL
Shares Traded: -50,000 (-0.0014%)
Current: 374,556,640 (10.9841%)
Previous: 374,606,640 (10.9855%)
Broker: TP
Investor Type: Domestic
Source: KSEI

FIXED CLOSING
-------------------------------------
[WATCHLIST ONLY : 143 EMITEN]

Senin, 09 February 2026 16:00
Saham potensial gap-up/down di CLOSING market, diurut berdasarkan nilai persentase:
(cukup pantau baris paling atas dan paling bawah untuk cek gap terbesar):

GAP UP:
🔼 $PWON gap up ke 366 (+8 / +2.23%) dari 358
🔼 $WIIM gap up ke 2030 (+30 / +1.5%) dari 2000
🔼 $TOTL gap up ke 1060 (+15 / +1.44%) dari 1045
🔼 SMDR gap up ke 374 (+4 / +1.08%) dari 370
🔼 DRMA gap up ke 1020 (+10 / +0.99%) dari 1010
🔼 UNVR gap up ke 2300 (+20 / +0.88%) dari 2280
🔼 PRDA gap up ke 2390 (+20 / +0.84%) dari 2370
🔼 BMRI gap up ke 5000 (+40 / +0.81%) dari 4960
🔼 BBRI gap up ke 3770 (+30 / +0.8%) dari 3740
🔼 CPIN gap up ke 4530 (+30 / +0.67%) dari 4500
🔼 ANJT gap up ke 1670 (+10 / +0.6%) dari 1660
🔼 INKP gap up ke 9175 (+50 / +0.55%) dari 9125
🔼 BYAN gap up ke 14325 (+75 / +0.53%) dari 14250
🔼 BBNI gap up ke 4520 (+20 / +0.44%) dari 4500

GAP DOWN:
🔽 GGRM gap down ke 16600 (-50 / -0.3%) dari 16650
🔽 ARTO gap down ke 1670 (-10 / -0.6%) dari 1680
🔽 ULTJ gap down ke 1520 (-10 / -0.65%) dari 1530
🔽 BDMN gap down ke 2600 (-20 / -0.76%) dari 2620
🔽 AKRA gap down ke 1265 (-10 / -0.78%) dari 1275
🔽 HRTA gap down ke 2250 (-20 / -0.88%) dari 2270
🔽 INDY gap down ke 3380 (-30 / -0.88%) dari 3410
🔽 WIFI gap down ke 2250 (-20 / -0.88%) dari 2270
🔽 AADI gap down ke 7975 (-75 / -0.93%) dari 8050
🔽 ISAT gap down ke 2110 (-20 / -0.94%) dari 2130
🔽 EMTK gap down ke 855 (-10 / -1.16%) dari 865
🔽 NRCA gap down ke 785 (-10 / -1.26%) dari 795
🔽 AALI gap down ke 7450 (-100 / -1.32%) dari 7550
🔽 MAPA gap down ke 685 (-10 / -1.44%) dari 695

Cek ulang semuanya dan IEP bisa berubah smp menit terakhir. Salam Cuan.

[WATCHLIST ONLY : 143 EMITEN]

Senin, 09 February 2026 15:56
Saham potensial gap-up/down di CLOSING market, diurut berdasarkan nilai persentase:
(cukup pantau baris paling atas dan paling bawah untuk cek gap terbesar):

GAP UP:
🔼 $PWON gap up ke 368 (+10 / +2.79%) dari 358
🔼 $TOTL gap up ke 1060 (+15 / +1.44%) dari 1045
🔼 BBRI gap up ke 3790 (+50 / +1.34%) dari 3740
🔼 BMRI gap up ke 5025 (+65 / +1.31%) dari 4960
🔼 SMDR gap up ke 374 (+4 / +1.08%) dari 370
🔼 DRMA gap up ke 1020 (+10 / +0.99%) dari 1010
🔼 CPIN gap up ke 4540 (+40 / +0.89%) dari 4500
🔼 UNVR gap up ke 2300 (+20 / +0.88%) dari 2280
🔼 PRDA gap up ke 2390 (+20 / +0.84%) dari 2370
🔼 JPFA gap up ke 2570 (+20 / +0.78%) dari 2550
🔼 BBNI gap up ke 4530 (+30 / +0.67%) dari 4500
🔼 ANJT gap up ke 1670 (+10 / +0.6%) dari 1660
🔼 TBIG gap up ke 1690 (+10 / +0.6%) dari 1680
🔼 INKP gap up ke 9175 (+50 / +0.55%) dari 9125
🔼 BYAN gap up ke 14325 (+75 / +0.53%) dari 14250

GAP DOWN:
🔽 GGRM gap down ke 16600 (-50 / -0.3%) dari 16650
🔽 ARTO gap down ke 1670 (-10 / -0.6%) dari 1680
🔽 SRTG gap down ke 1640 (-10 / -0.61%) dari 1650
🔽 ULTJ gap down ke 1520 (-10 / -0.65%) dari 1530
🔽 BDMN gap down ke 2600 (-20 / -0.76%) dari 2620
🔽 INTP gap down ke 6550 (-50 / -0.76%) dari 6600
🔽 WIFI gap down ke 2250 (-20 / -0.88%) dari 2270
🔽 HRTA gap down ke 2250 (-20 / -0.88%) dari 2270
🔽 AADI gap down ke 7975 (-75 / -0.93%) dari 8050
🔽 EMTK gap down ke 855 (-10 / -1.16%) dari 865
🔽 AKRA gap down ke 1260 (-15 / -1.18%) dari 1275
🔽 AALI gap down ke 7450 (-100 / -1.32%) dari 7550
🔽 ISAT gap down ke 2100 (-30 / -1.41%) dari 2130
🔽 MAPA gap down ke 685 (-10 / -1.44%) dari 695
🔽 $INDY gap down ke 3360 (-50 / -1.47%) dari 3410

Cek ulang semuanya dan IEP bisa berubah smp menit terakhir. Salam Cuan.

Kalimat yang sering saya dapat ketika menjelaskan rational investing adalah:

"Kalau bisa cepat, kenapa musti lama?"

Menurut keyakinan saya, pemikiran bahwa cepat adalah segalanya, adalah pemikiran yang angkuh. Bahwa seolah-olah segala sesuatu selalu berada dalam kendalinya.

Bahkan demi cepat ini, manusia tega dan rela melawan hukum/aturan. Keegoisannya bahkan merusak keseluruhan sistem, seperti gambar di bawah. Seperti inilah keadaan bursa kita saat ini.

Yang sering lewat palang kereta setiap hari seperti saya juga pasti ngerti nih perasaannya.

Orang yang jago cepat dengan 99% kemungkinan berhasil dan 1% saja kecelakaan fatal, dalam jangka waktu panjang akan memiliki probabilita 99% untuk celaka.

Speed will mean nothing if you don't arrive.

Tag saham pelan-pelan

$TOTL $IPCC $CASS

$TOTL 05 Feb 26
Investor: DJADJANG TANUWIDJAJA
Action: SELL
Shares Traded: -100,000 (-0.0030%)
Current: 374,606,640 (10.9855%)
Previous: 374,706,640 (10.9885%)
Broker: TP
Investor Type: Domestic
Source: KSEI

Waktu market lagi bubble, mitos yang paling sering dijadikan mantra adalah: saham fundamental, neraca sehat, harga wajar, terlalu muluk-muluk kalau berekspektasi return di atas obligasi. Sedangkan sekelompok saham afiliasi tertentu yang konsisten menukar utang dengan saham, dan arus kas bebas negatif, memiliki expected CAGR 60-400%

Lalu setelah bubble IHSG mulai menunjukkan keretakan, para centang hijau kicep selain bermantra, "cash is king," kemudian para pembuat konten fundamental, terutama dividend dan value investing mulai kebagian panggung, mitos lain mulai menjadi mantra: saham-saham fundamental dan value yang memiliki kebijakan dividen rutin, sekarang harganya sudah ketinggian

Faktanya? Yang waras aja... dari mana biasanya sumber dividen? Dari mana biasanya nilai intrinsik dihitung? Keduanya sama: arus kas. That simple

Jauh sebelum bubble IHSG serapuh sekarang, jauh sebelum saya suka journaling tentang 1001 jurus analisis, saya lebih suka journaling tentang dua topik:

1. Kalau modal masih kecil, solusinya BUKAN mengambil high beta dengan uncompensated risk, apapun narasinya. Modal masih kecil ya solusinya investasi leher ke atas dan fokus 'nguli' di dunia nyata. Hasilnya ditabung ke saham. Jangan dibalik, pertumbuhan dunia nyata stagnan, lalu menjadikan saham sebagai get rich quick scheme instan

2. Target pribadi saya BUKAN CAGR porto mengalahkan rate tertentu, melainkan pertumbuhan SAVING RATE saya harus mengalahkan CAGR porto saya sendiri. Kenapa? Ini indikator apakah saya lebih fokus bertumbuh di dunia nyata, atau lebih fokus di kinerja jangka pendek market

Jadi apa yang bikin saya survive saat bubble IHSG pecah, BUKAN karena porto saya isinya saham defensif berdividen jumbo semua, melainkan karena saving rate yang konsisten bertumbuh artinya saya SELALU punya dry powder. Persetan semesta mau bilang, "masih bisa turun lagi," karena saat itu tiba, saya sudah punya dry powder lagi

Influencers centang ijo yang sedang pivot dari konten-konten bertema stockpick dan pamer historical return, menjadi ke konten-konten bertema 'cash is king' mungkin lupa, atau pura-pura lupa, bahwa cash is king TIDAK hanya berlaku untuk RDN. Untuk perusahaan yang kita beli, cash is king juga berlaku

Masa iya mereka dan followers mereka pada berebut exit demi mengamankan cash, tapi nggak tahu arus kas bebas dan yield arus kas bebas dari saham-saham mereka sebelum membeli? Coba dipikirkan secara logika

Yang waras aja lah:
- saving rate lebih penting daripada return market
- cash is king TIDAK hanya berlaku untuk RDN, yield arus kas bebas yang cukup kompetitif di tiap-tiap saham yang kita miliki juga sama pentingnya

That simple

Contoh kasus perusahaan-perusahaan dengan yield arus kas bebas jumbo, yang membuahkan dividen rutin + capital gain yang sustainable + runway pertumbuhan yang masih panjang tanpa butuh narasi influencers bak mimpi atau target harga 80 ribu. Nggak menjanjikan CAGR 60-400% memang, tapi konsistensinya sudah battle proven $IPCC $TOTL $ASGR JTPE dll.