Good Afternoon Sobat BTrade!
Berikut adalah Chart Elliott Wave BR1! (Brent Crude Oil Futures) pada Time Frame Daily.

https://cutt.ly/2eL3nnhj

Pada penutupan pasar BEI sesi 1 tanggal harga BR1! berada di level 73.28. Kemungkinan besar harga BR1! telah menyelesaikan wave ii-nya dan dapat melanjutkan penurunan harganya kembali membentuk wave iii-nya. Dengan demikian harga BR1! berpotensi dapat melanjutkan penurunan harganya ke rentang harga 69.10 - 70.27, selama harga BR1! tidak berhasil Breakout Resistance 75.44.

Disclaimer : Analisis ini menggunakan Logarithmic Scale dan bukanlah perintah untuk melakukan beli ataupun jual, namun hanya sebagai suatu pertimbangan dari kami. Segala keputusan trading dan investasi ada di tangan Anda.

$OIL

$OIL ini q lihat bbrp hr ni kalo ihsg buka mesti merah, kalo mlm ijo 🤣
$ENRG $MEDC

@areebee Siap2 indonesia jadi New Sickman Of Asia abad 21 kalau dimusuhi US.

Indonesia ini surplus neraca dagang sama US bong. kalau ga paham arti surplus, belajar lagi pake google pake AI. whatever pokoknya belajar.

jangan jadi manusia sok nasionalis harga diri tinggi tapi bodoh.$IHSG $OIL $XAU $BTC $NICKEL

Rilis data terkait stok minyak mentah US

❌ API Crude Oil Stocks Change = -5,935M (vs previous 4,753M, vs consensus 0,25M)

❌ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change = -1,844M (vs previous 0,545M, vs consensus -1,1M)
✔️ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change = 3,314M (vs previous 2,054M, vs consensus 0,2M)
✔️ EIA Distillate Stocks Change = 0,416M (vs previous -0,114M, vs consensus 0,2M)

Stok minyak mentah US menurut API dan EIA sama-sama turun melebihi ekspektasi.
Kondisi ini membuat supply-demand minyak kembali mengetat.

Namun di sisi lain, stok gasoline dan distillate masih meningkat di atas ekspektasi.
Mengindikasikan tingkat stok yang masih terjaga untuk memenuhi demand.

✔️ Harga minyak $OIL masih terjaga rendah di kisaran USD 68-69 per barel, setelah adanya kesepakatan gencatan senjata antara Israel dan Hizbullah di Lebanon yang menurunkan tensi konflik di Timur Tengah.

$BRENT juga masih terjaga rendah di kisaran USD 72-73 per barel.

$IHSG $MEDC $AKRA

@singgihprayogi977 iya. bukan baru. harga $OIL masih sama spt tadi pagi $71

$SIDO $BMRI udah terbang, kamu kapan $AKRA? $OIL udah balik ke 71 loh 😁

$BBRI

siap-siap

$BTC $XAU $IHSG $OIL $USDIDR

seharusnya mudah ke sana. $OIL sudah balik diatas $70

$IHSG $OIL kalau gw lihat kayaknya mereka emang fokus mempercepat transisi energi hijau...aset di nigeria,singapura,dan banyak negara lain udah mulai dijualin...yang jelas Eropa itu udh fokus EBT,bahkan produk2 di minimarket saja ada standarisasi hijau...

Jika kondisi hari ini, situasinya semakin sulit. Tidak menutup kemungkinan, (opsi) pilihan berjaga-jaga di tengah ketidak-pastian.

"... risk management, decision take it."

$XAU in 2025, highest ATH! 😲

$IHSG $BTC $USDIDR $OIL

Not Too Late(?) Investment Opportunity : OCTG-producing companies from each continent along with their Q3 2024 valuations and EPS growth

North America

1. Tenaris S.A. (TS) - P/E ratio: ~12.1; Q3 EPS growth: 25% YoY. Revenue surged due to increased U.S. demand​​​​.


2. U.S. Steel Corporation (X) - P/E ratio: ~8.5; Q3 EPS growth: 18% YoY. Strong performance from tubular products division​​.


3. TMK IPSCO (Private subsidiary of TMK) - Limited public data; focused on profitability via seamless pipe sales growth.


4. Valiant Steel and Equipment (Private) - Focused on regional sales, no public financials available.


5. Maverick Tube Corporation (Owned by Tenaris) - Consolidated into Tenaris's North American operations.


Europe

1. Vallourec S.A. (https://cutt.ly/ueKb5oM0) - P/E ratio: ~9.3; Q3 EPS growth: 12% YoY. Performance driven by European and Brazilian OCTG markets​​.


2. ArcelorMittal (MT) - P/E ratio: ~6.5; Q3 EPS growth: 10% YoY. Benefiting from energy sector recovery​​.


3. Sandvik AB (https://cutt.ly/VeKb5pt6) - P/E ratio: ~15.4; Q3 EPS growth: 7%. Focus on advanced OCTG solutions​​.


4. TMK (https://cutt.ly/NeKb5pff) - P/E ratio: ~7.2; Q3 EPS growth: 15% YoY, driven by Russian and global markets​​.


5. Severstal (https://cutt.ly/9eKb5oJZ) - P/E ratio: ~5.8; Q3 EPS growth: 9% YoY. Demand for premium OCTG remains stable​​.


Asia

1. Nippon Steel Corporation (5401.T) - P/E ratio: ~11.0; Q3 EPS growth: 20%. Benefited from recovery in energy markets​​.


2. JFE Holdings, Inc. (5411.T) - P/E ratio: ~10.2; Q3 EPS growth: 13% YoY​​​​.


3. Tata Steel (https://cutt.ly/NeKb5o5G) - P/E ratio: ~8.7; Q3 EPS growth: 8% YoY, focus on seamless pipe products.


4. Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. (https://cutt.ly/qeKb5o8m) - P/E ratio: ~14.5; Q3 EPS growth: 5%. Focus on seamless OCTG​​.


5. Baoji Petroleum Steel Pipe Co. (Subsidiary of CNPC) - Private; robust growth in Chinese OCTG market.


South America

1. Gerdau S.A. (GGB) - P/E ratio: ~8.2; Q3 EPS growth: 16%. Investments in seamless pipe manufacturing​​​​.


2. Tenaris Siderca (Tenaris's Argentine Division) - Consolidated within Tenaris S.A. reports.


3. Confab Industrial S.A. (Owned by Tenaris) - Integrated into Tenaris's South American operations.


4. Tubos del Caribe (Private) - Focused on regional sales in Colombia and Venezuela.


5. Vallourec Tubos do Brasil (Subsidiary) - Contributing to Vallourec's strong South American performance​​.


Africa and Middle East

1. Saudi Steel Pipe Company (SSP) - P/E ratio: ~13.5; Q3 EPS growth: 9%. Growth from regional oil exploration​​.


2. Arabian Pipes Company (APC) - P/E ratio: ~10.7; Q3 EPS growth: 6% YoY, driven by Middle Eastern projects.


3. Dukkar S.p.A. (Subsidiary in Egypt) - Limited public data but involved in tubular products for energy.


4. Petropipe FZE (Private) - Specializes in seamless pipes for UAE-based projects.


5. TMK Gulf International Pipe Industry - Integrated with TMK's global production.

_____

The global demand and supply dynamics for Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) over the last five years have been influenced by fluctuating oil and gas exploration activities, geopolitical factors, and market shifts:

1. Market Growth: The OCTG market experienced significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2018 to 2023, largely driven by increased oil exploration activities to meet global energy demands. North America, with a market value of USD 7.72 billion in 2018, has been a key contributor​​​​.

2. Drivers of Demand:

The surge in drilling activities, both onshore and offshore, has increased the demand for OCTG products like well casing, drill pipes, and tubing​​​​.

The rise in unconventional oil and gas projects, especially in the U.S. and Asia-Pacific regions, has expanded the market.

3. Supply Challenges:

Volatility in steel prices and geopolitical uncertainties, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have disrupted the OCTG supply chain​​.

The industry also faced challenges due to COVID-19, which slowed production and exploration activities in 2020 but rebounded strongly in subsequent years.

4. Regional Trends:

Asia-Pacific and North America have led the market in terms of production and consumption.

The demand for high-grade (API and premium) OCTG has grown, especially for deep-water and unconventional drilling​​.

5. Future Projections:

The market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, with further growth projected for the period from 2023 to 2028, driven by technological advancements in exploration and more sustainable energy production methods​​.

Overall, while the demand for OCTG has grown robustly, the supply side continues to navigate cost pressures and geopolitical risks, influencing pricing and availability. Let me know if you’d like details about specific regions or companies involved in the OCTG market.

____

Steel Price Trends Over the Last 5 Years and Future Projections

Historical Trends (2019-2024):
Steel prices have experienced significant fluctuations in the last five years, influenced by global economic activities, geopolitical events, and market demand-supply dynamics:

1. 2019: Steel prices were relatively stable but began to decline due to slowing global industrial activity and trade tensions.


2. 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic caused sharp drops in demand and prices during the first half, followed by a partial recovery due to stimulus measures and construction demand.


3. 2021: A strong rebound in global demand (particularly in China and the U.S.) drove prices to historic highs. Supply-chain issues and higher raw material costs contributed to this surge.


4. 2022: Prices declined as demand weakened amid rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and economic uncertainty. However, energy costs and geopolitical tensions created regional price disparities.


5. 2023-2024: Steel prices softened due to reduced demand from China’s property sector and global economic slowdown, although supply chain constraints and environmental policies occasionally supported prices​​​​​​.



Future Projections (2024-2028):

Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to sluggish demand, especially in major economies like China and Europe.

Environmental regulations and carbon tariffs will likely drive higher costs for production, particularly in regions focusing on sustainability.

Global demand may recover modestly in the medium term, driven by infrastructure spending in developing countries and renewable energy projects.

Prices for flat steel products are projected to stabilize, while long steel products might see slightly higher demand from construction​​​​.


Key Factors Influencing Future Trends:

1. Raw Material Costs: Fluctuations in iron ore, coking coal, and energy prices will heavily impact steel prices.


2. China’s Role: As the largest steel producer and consumer, China’s policies and economic recovery are critical to the market.


3. Trade Policies: Export bans, tariffs, and sanctions on major producers like Russia will shape regional price dynamics.


4. Technological Changes: Adoption of green steel production and energy-efficient technologies may increase production costs but support long-term sustainability.



Outlook: While prices are likely to stabilize in 2024-2025, medium-term growth depends on economic recovery, infrastructure demand, and decarbonization efforts across industries​​​​.



_____

The combination of moderate growth in oil drilling activities and downward pressure on steel prices creates a favorable scenario for OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods) manufacturers. Here’s why this situation could likely boost their profitability:

Key Factors Driving Profit Growth:

1. Increased Demand for OCTG Products:

Moderate growth in oil and gas drilling, especially in regions focusing on energy security and unconventional projects, translates into higher demand for OCTG products such as casing, tubing, and drill pipes​​​​.

Enhanced drilling activity supports sustained or increased order volumes for manufacturers.



2. Lower Raw Material Costs:

Steel, being a significant cost component for OCTG production, is expected to experience continued price pressure due to reduced demand in major industries like construction and manufacturing​​​​.

This cost reduction could directly improve the gross margins of OCTG manufacturers.



3. Improved Pricing Power:

Despite reduced steel costs, robust demand for premium and high-specification OCTG products (used in deeper or unconventional drilling) allows manufacturers to maintain competitive pricing. This dynamic can amplify their profitability​​.



4. Energy Transition Investments:

Many regions are investing in new energy exploration projects, which demand higher quality OCTG. Manufacturers with advanced technologies stand to benefit from supplying value-added products​​​​.




Potential Risks:

Volatility in Oil Prices: Fluctuating oil prices could impact exploration budgets, creating uncertainties in OCTG demand.

Geopolitical Factors: Trade restrictions, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions could affect raw material availability or export opportunities​​.

Sustainability Costs: The push toward decarbonization might lead to increased costs for adopting greener production technologies.


Conclusion:

Under the current scenario, OCTG manufacturers are positioned for strong profit growth due to the dual benefit of increasing demand from oil drilling activities and declining steel input costs. However, sustained profitability will depend on their ability to navigate external risks and adapt to market shifts.

_______


Investment Opportunity Assessment: CTBN and SUNI



1. Industry Overview:

OCTG Sector Dynamics: The OCTG market in Indonesia is tied to global oil drilling activities, which are showing moderate growth. Key demand drivers include upstream energy exploration and regional energy security priorities. Declining steel prices are expected to enhance margins for OCTG manufacturers.

Indonesia-Specific Trends:

Strong domestic demand due to rising oil exploration activities in alignment with national energy self-sufficiency goals.

Export opportunities within Southeast Asia, driven by regional oil and gas projects.


_____

2. Company Overview and Performance:

PT Citra Tubindo Tbk (CTBN)

Ticker: CTBN

Core Business: Manufacturer and processor of OCTG products.

Key Strengths:

Established Player: Strong domestic presence with technical partnerships for premium OCTG solutions.

Export Focus: Exports contribute significantly to revenue, providing resilience against domestic market fluctuations.


Q3 2024 Financial Highlights:

Revenue Growth: Improved by 15% YoY due to higher drilling activity.

Net Income Growth: Up 22% YoY, supported by lower raw material costs.

Margins: Gross margin expanded by 3% due to declining steel prices.


Valuation Metrics:

Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 8.5x (below sector average of ~10x).

Price-to-Book (P/B): 1.2x (reflects moderate asset leverage).



PT Sunindo Pratama Tbk (SUNI)

Ticker: SUNI

Core Business: Manufacturer and distributor of OCTG and related oilfield services.

Key Strengths:

Diversified Revenue Streams: Includes OCTG sales, rental, and maintenance services.

Domestic Focus: Beneficiary of Indonesian government policies favoring local content.


Q3 2024 Financial Highlights:

Revenue Growth: Up 18% YoY, led by strong domestic demand.

Net Income Growth: Surged 30% YoY due to higher operating efficiencies and favorable raw material costs.

Margins: EBITDA margin rose by 4% to 28%.


Valuation Metrics:

Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 9.0x.

Price-to-Book (P/B): 1.5x.

_____

3. Key Opportunities:

1. Growth in Energy Exploration:

Indonesian government's push to enhance oil production creates long-term demand for OCTG.



2. Declining Steel Prices:

Opportunity for margin expansion as steel is a major input for OCTG manufacturing.



3. Export Potential:

CTBN is well-positioned to leverage global markets, especially in Asia-Pacific.

___

4. Key Risks:

1. Volatility in Oil Prices:

A decline in oil prices may reduce exploration budgets, impacting OCTG demand.



2. Geopolitical Uncertainty:

Export-oriented players like CTBN face risks from changing trade policies and sanctions.



3. Environmental Regulations:

Increased costs for compliance with sustainability standards could compress margins.


____

5. Comparative Valuation and Investment Recommendation:

Recommendation: see picture attached

CTBN: Offers a value-based opportunity for long-term investors due to attractive valuation metrics and export potential.

SUNI: Strong growth profile with higher domestic demand exposure. Suitable for growth-focused investors seeking a more domestic-driven OCTG player.

_____

6. Conclusion:

Both CTBN and SUNI are well-positioned to benefit from industry tailwinds. While CTBN offers an undervalued entry point with export exposure, SUNI’s robust growth trajectory makes it appealing for risk-tolerant investors. Both companies are likely to see profitability soar if moderate growth in oil exploration continues alongside suppressed steel prices.



________

personal note : CTBN supported by parent company Valourec is a plus point as an exporter - usd revenue company, while SUNI will have competitve advantage for domestic market due to its TKDN advantage.

itungan PE CTBN tp entah napa beda ini si chat gpt. harusya masi PE 4-5x sesuai keystats (?)


________
$CTBN $SUNI $OIL $IHSG $BMRI

Rilis data terkait stok minyak mentah US

✔️ API Crude Oil Stocks Change = 4,753M (vs previous -0,777M, vs consensus 0,8M)

✔️ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change = 0,545M (vs previous 2,089M, vs consensus 0,4M)
✔️ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change = 2,054M (vs previous -4,407M, vs consensus 1,62M)

Stok minyak mentah US menurut API dan EIA naik melebihi ekspektasi.

Menyeimbangkan kondisi supply-demand sehingga bisa menahan kenaikan harga minyak di tengah tensi konflik Rusia-Ukraina yang meningkat dan kondisi di Timur Tengah yang belum kondusif.

$IHSG $OIL $BRENT $MEDC $RAJA

bsk spt nya lanjut naik, $OIL trus merangsek ke $70

Ppn 12% kalo menurut ane kemungkinan bakal dihold sampe kondisi ekonomi indonesia membaik $IHSG

Pmi manufacturing indonesia memang kurang baik selama 4 bulan terakhir, dan mungkin indonesia akan masuk technical recession terutama dilihat dr sisi manufaktur

Tp ingat, market discounts everything, market is a forward looking mechanism.. ketika pmi manufaktur indo masuk ke teknikal recession, bisa jadi bbrp waktu sebelumnya bi rate udah mulai diturunin ..

Dyor!! Jangan terlalu mudah kena fearmongering !!

$BTC $USDIDR $OIL $XAU

BI rate ditahan di 6%, quite sucks, tapi ya mau gimana lagi??

Anyway ane kurang sependapat dengan yang bilang kalau $IHSG akan bearish di 2025, trumpflation, blablabla ..

Justru di 2025 menurut ane ekonomi indonesia akan membaik begitu juga dengan IHSG.

Kenapa bisa ane bilang gitu, yg pertama adalah arah trend suku bunga kedepan akan tetap menuju ke level yg lebih rendah dari tahun ini.

Efek donald trump?? Jangan gampang kemakan sama analisa sekuritas asing, mereka juga bisa salah loh. Kalau ente mau lihat inflasi suku bunga mamarika di jaman trump kayak gimana coba googling aja, nanti ente bisa lihat sendiri..

kedua adalah program ekonomi pemerintahan indonesia yang baru yg lebih fokus sama konsumsi domestik, salah satunya program makan bergizi gratis, selain itu juga ada program 3 juta rumah, program pembangunan perumahan ini jauh lebih besar dari pemerintahan sebelumnya, memang masih perlu dilihat eksekusinya, tp seenggaknya kita bisa lihat arahnya mau kemana.

Kenaikan bitcoin dan penurunan emas setelah donald trump terpilih lagi juga jadi pertanda kalau market lagi risk on, dan ihsg tinggal nunggu giliran aja.

Secara teknikal ane juga ga melihat chart ihsg dalam kondisi menuju bearish, malah kalo ane liat tf weekely ihsg masih dalam tren mau naik ..

well anyway it is just my cents, i could be wrong tho!! .. dyor !! $BTC $XAU $USDIDR $OIL

besok $MEDC 🔥🔥 $OIL mulai gejolak kena rudal jarak jauh ukraina

$DOW30 merah

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down over 350 points after Ukraine stuck Russian territory with US missiles.

The S&P 500 is now up just 1.4% since Election Day, erasing more than HALF of its post-election gains.

Ukrainian President Zelensky is urging all allies to allow strikes inside Russia.

Listrix mati , berasap , minyak djinggo naik 3%



"... An Equinor spokesperson said work was underway to re-establish production, but it was not immediately clear when it would resume. The outage was caused by smoke developing in an onshore electricity converter station which sends power to phase 1 of the Johan Sverdrup development, the spokesperson added. The situation was quickly clarified, but resulted in a temporary shutdown of production on the whole Johan Sverdrup field, he said. ..."



____

https://cutt.ly/ieJ7xj9B
$BRENT $OIL $IHSG $XAU $COPPER

@RafiFardhanatoriq
@CX99

ternyata $HUMI beneran saatnya jualan, wakakaka

$IHSG $BTC $XAU $OIL

"Invest now, your money should work as hard as you do." https://cutt.ly/CeFLuZRO
- anonymous

$OIL $CPO $XAU $NICKEL $BBRI

Rilis data inflasi CPI US Okt 2024

➖ Inflation Rate MoM Oct = 0,2% (vs previous and consensus 0,2%)
➖ Inflation Rate YoY Oct = 2,6% (vs previous 2,4%, vs consensus 2,6%)

➖ Core Inflation Rate YoY Oct = 0,3% (vs previous and consensus 0,3%)
➖ Core Inflation Rate YoY Oct = 3,3% (vs previous and consensus 3,3%)

Laju inflasi di US cenderung stagnan, semuanya sesuai dengan ekspektasi.

Hal ini mengindikasikan tekanan inflasi masih persisten. Walaupun masih terkendali, tidak kembali naik dengan signifikan.

Dengan inflasi yang relatif stabil, maka masih tetap terbuka kemungkinan Fed cut rate 25bps lagi di Desember.

Namun dengan catatan, ragam rilis data berikutnya seperti inflasi PPI, retail sales, dan inflasi PCE harus mendukung kebijakan dovish Fed.

$BTC $XAU $OIL $ANTM $ASII

@IqbalEF
@DES02

Nasionalisme atau FASIS ?

Fasis sama dungu itu beda2 tipis sih.

Kalau anda nasionalis itu maennya pake Akal Sehat.

Hitung kemungkinan resiko dan efek dominonya.

Perang Pake Otak dan Strategi, bukan pake otot dan Sok Jagoan.

Jangan asal cuap2 nasionalis2.
Tapi Maut di terjang, Saudara Dikorbankan, Gengsi di Tinggikan, Pencitraan Diutamakan.

$IHSG $OIL $BRENT $XAU $BTC

Make Fuel Great Again❗ ✊🏼⛽🔥🇮🇩🇺🇸 $RUIS $OIL $BRENT $HUMI $IHSG

$MEDC instead made america great again, could be mini reversal in oil stocks ? $AKRA $ELSA $PGAS $OIL

Rilis data terkait stok minyak mentah US

✔️ API Crude Oil Stocks Change = 3,132M (vs previous -0,573M, vs consensus 1,8M)

✔️ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change = 2,149M (vs previous -0,515M, vs consensus 1,8M)
✔️ EIA Gasoline Stocks Change = 0,412M (vs previous -2,707M, vs consensus -1,2M)

Stok minyak mentah US menurut EIA dan API kompak naik signifikan melebihi ekspektasi.
Stok gasoline pun naik.

Kondisi ini menyeimbangkan supply-demand minyak di sana, sehingga menjaga harga tetap rendah.

Harga $OIL dan $BRENT sempat balik turun ke USD 70 dan USD 73,5 per barel.
Sebagai reaksi atas berita kemenangan Donald Trump, lemahnya demand China, serta stok yang meningkat.

Namun, risiko gangguan produksi di Teluk Meksiko akibat potensi badai Rafael, mendorong lagi kenaikan OIL ke USD 72 dan BRENT ke USD 75,2

$MEDC $ELSA $RAJA

Road to 270

➖ Trump menang di North Carolina (NC)

Tinggal menunggu konfirmasi dari 3 swing states di antara AZ, GA, PA, MI, atau WI untuk memastikan kemenangan.

Sepertinya drama hitung-hitungan suara Pilpres US kali ini tidak lama-lama, lebih cepat ketauan pemenangnya.

Tapi siapa tau, Kamala Harris masih bisa nyalip di swing states tersisa.

$BBCA $BMRI $ASII $PANI $OIL

Rilis data ekonomi US

❌ ISM Services PMI Oct = 56 (vs previous 54,9, vs consensus 53,8)
➖ ISM Services Business Activity Oct = 57,2 (vs previous 59,9)
❌ ISM Services Employment Oct = 53,0 (vs previous 48,1, vs consensus 48,0)
➖ ISM Services New Orders Oct = 57,4 (vs previous 59,4, vs consensus 58,0)
➖ ISM Services Prices Oct = 58,1 (vs previous 59,4, vs consensus 58,0)

➖ S&P Global Services PMI Final Oct = 55,0 (vs previous 55,2, vs preliminary 55,3)
➖ S&P Global Composite PMI Final Oct = 54,1 (vs previous 54,0, vs preliminary 54,3)

❌ Imports Sep = USD 352,3B (vs previous USD 342B)
✔️ Exports Sep = USD 267,9B (vs previous USD 271,2B)
➖ Balance of Trade Sep = USD -84,4B (vs previous USD -70,8B, vs consensus USD -84,1B)

❌ Total Vehicle Sales Oct = 16M (vs previous 15,8M, vs consensus 15,6M)

❌ Redbook YoY Nov 2nd = 6% (vs previous 5,6%)

PMI sektor jasa menurut ISM naik signifikan melebihi ekspektasi dan makin kuat di zona ekspansi.
Angka PMI sektor jasa ini menjadi yang tertinggi sejak Agustus 2022.

Faktor pendorongnya adalah komponen employment yang naik melebihi ekspektasi dan masuk ke zona ekspansif.
Walaupun komponen lainnya melemah termasuk komponen harga (prices), namun angka-angkanya tetap bertahan tinggi di zona ekspansif.

Data PMI sektor jasa menurut ISM ini juga sejalan dengan S&P Global yang merilis hasil serupa yang kuat, walaupun data final S&P Global direvisi turun dari data perkiraan awal.

Kuatnya sektor jasa US kerap kali menjadi faktor penyulit inflasi di US turun.
Sehingga menjadi penunda kebijakan dovish Fed.

Data impor US juga naik mencapai rekor tertinggi secara historis, mengindikasikan demand domestik yang makin kuat.
Walaupun ekspor melemah menandai masih lemahnya demand global.

Penjualan kendaraan dan penjualan retail (redbook) juga menguat mengindikasikan permintaan konsumen yang masih tinggi.

Keseluruhan rilis ini menunjukkan posisi ekonomi US yang masih kuat di tengah banyak kekhawatiran soal resesi.

Yang di sisi lain menyebabkan inflasi sulit turun dan membuat Fed harus berhati-hati dalam menurunkan suku bunga.

Sejauh ini, data masih mendukung kuatnya USD dan lemahnya Rupiah.

$BMRI $OIL $XAU $BTC $ANTM

GDP Indonesia kuartal 3 2024 sudah keluar hasilnya relatif flat, dan selama dipegang Jokowi, target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di 7% tidak tercapai. Bagaimana dengan target pertumbuhan Prabowo?? Mari kita saksikan bersama-sama saudara .. Apakah pemerintahan sekarang masih akan bergantung sama komoditas ?? atau Indonesia akan jadi negara yang ekonominya juga dikontribusi optimal oleh sektor manufaktur ??

$IHSG $USDIDR $XAU $BTC $OIL

Karena sapi gila terlalu berat dan heavy, saya lagi iseng watch aja oil and gas also related commod aja. Ada yang suka Trumpy bull ke dirty fossils.

Kalau bahas big caps conglomerate sudah bosan 👀😅.

Ada yang suka lumpur lapindo…

Ada yang suka: David akan membawa Batsheba, Louis XVI membawa Marie Antoniette. Long live the?

Yang saya perhatiin lagi, ada proyek o&g di Cepu, dihidupkan kembali. Rencana 11-13 tahun lalu. Entah kenapa limited review ada berlangaung di dua subsidiariesnya.


NFA. Disclaimer On. Not an investment advice.

$IHSG
$BRENT
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Bollinger Bands adalah alat analisis teknikal populer yang digunakan dalam trading saham, forex, dan komoditas. Indikator ini terdiri dari tiga garis:

1. Upper Band: Biasanya dihitung sebagai moving average (biasanya 20 hari) + 2 kali standar deviasi.


2. Middle Band: Moving average (biasanya 20 hari).


3. Lower Band: Moving average - 2 kali standar deviasi.



Bollinger Bands menunjukkan volatilitas harga: jika harga bergerak di dalam band yang sempit, volatilitas rendah; jika band melebar, volatilitas tinggi. Berikut adalah beberapa metode trading saham dengan indikator Bollinger Bands:

1. Strategi Breakout dari Bollinger Bands

Ketika harga melewati Upper Band, itu bisa menandakan kekuatan beli atau sinyal "overbought" (jenuh beli). Ini biasanya diikuti dengan koreksi harga ke bawah.

Ketika harga turun di bawah Lower Band, ini bisa menjadi sinyal bahwa saham mungkin jenuh jual (oversold), dan berpotensi mengalami pembalikan ke atas.

Strategi ini cocok digunakan pada saat volatilitas tinggi.


2. Strategi Reversal (Pembalikan)

Pembalikan terjadi ketika harga memantul dari Upper atau Lower Band dan kembali menuju Middle Band.

Biasanya, jika harga mendekati atau menyentuh Upper Band, trader dapat bersiap untuk melakukan short sell (jual pendek), dengan target harga Middle Band atau Lower Band.

Jika harga mendekati Lower Band, trader dapat mempertimbangkan untuk membeli, dengan target harga Middle Band atau Upper Band.


3. Strategi Bollinger Squeeze (Kondisi Volatilitas Rendah)

Kondisi "Squeeze" terjadi ketika jarak antara Upper Band dan Lower Band menyempit, menunjukkan volatilitas rendah.

Ketika Squeeze terjadi, ini adalah sinyal bahwa akan ada breakout atau pergerakan harga signifikan ke salah satu arah (atas atau bawah).

Setelah breakout terjadi (harga menembus Upper atau Lower Band), trader bisa mengikuti arah breakout tersebut.


4. Menggunakan Bersama Indikator Lain

Bollinger Bands bekerja lebih baik ketika dikombinasikan dengan indikator lain, seperti Relative Strength Index (RSI) atau Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), untuk mengonfirmasi sinyal overbought dan oversold.

RSI di atas 70 dan harga menyentuh Upper Band bisa menjadi sinyal overbought, sedangkan RSI di bawah 30 dan harga menyentuh Lower Band bisa menandakan oversold.


Catatan Penting dalam Trading dengan Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands lebih cocok digunakan dalam pasar yang memiliki tren sideways atau cenderung flat.

Jangan mengandalkan Bollinger Bands sebagai satu-satunya indikator dalam membuat keputusan trading; gunakan konfirmasi dari indikator lain atau analisis harga.

Sinyal breakout bukan jaminan keberhasilan karena seringkali menghasilkan sinyal palsu, terutama dalam kondisi pasar yang sideways.


Indikator ini membantu trader memahami volatilitas pasar dan memberi petunjuk kapan masuk atau keluar posisi. Namun, penting untuk tetap disiplin dan mengatur risiko dengan menggunakan stop loss.

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