Saham: RISE - PT. Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa Tbk.

Tujuan owner $RISE harusnya marketcap setara 180T++

*target harga akan berubah setelah saham bonus & Right Issue

**berhubung pak Hermanto bukan orang yg sangat jago mainin saham, jadi bisajadi tidak tercapai di setahun kedepan

***ada indikator lain yang perlu dijaga, kalau indikator tersebut lenyap, bisa cutloss untung atau cutloss rugi, silahkan cari sendiri indikator yg dimaksud

$RISE sesi 2 yok mulai meroket

$ESTA kapan info akuisisi keluar atau hanya PHP

Rantag $BUVA $RISE

$RISE high risk high return hati" aj kalo mau masuk

$RISE ayo dong naikk, kapan kejemputnya yg 12000 😭

$RISE Yuks Naik Yuk Ndar

$RISE

$RISE Yukn

$FPNI ini saham sepertinya masih prospek, di lihat dri newsnya pengesahan pabrik baru langsung oleh prsiden, free float yg kecil, market cap besar, dri harga walaupun lagi fase distribusi tapi harganya tetap di jaga tidak sampai ARB
apakah bisa setinggi $MLPT atau the next $RISE
let see

$RISE?? gerakanmu bikin aku bingung..jualkah?

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$CLEO $MERI $RISE

🤖 STOCKBOT INTELLIGENCE LOG

📡 SUBJECT: $RISE (PT Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa Tbk - Tanrise Property)
📅 TIMESTAMP: 5 Desember 2025, 16:09 WIB
📊 LAST PRICE: Rp9,800 | 🚦 SYSTEM TREND: Bearish-Distribution After Mega Rally

⚡ STOCKBOT CALCULATED ENTRIES (PRIORITAS)
✅ ENTRY IDEAL (Conservative Mode)
Range Beli: Rp8,350 – Rp9,000
Analisa Sistem: WAIT untuk koreksi sehat -15-25% dari current price setelah profit-taking masif selesai. Entry konservatif menunggu stabilisasi post-rights issue clarity (execution expected Q1 2026) dan konfirmasi: (1) BIG DISTRIBUTION selesai dengan Top Investor berbalik akumulasi >+20%, (2) Bandar Value berubah positif dari current -Rp43.89B, (3) Foreign net buy >Rp500M sustained, (4) RSI turun ke 35-40 lalu rebound dengan Stoch RSI golden cross. Zona Rp8,350 adalah support MA21 dan 0.618 fib retracement dari rally.

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF (Momentum Mode)
Range Beli: Rp9,600 – Rp10,200
Analisa Sistem: Counter trend entry untuk dead cat bounce setelah koreksi -39% dari peak Rp16,000. SANGAT BERISIKO karena: (1) MASSIVE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION dari semua level investor dengan intensity luar biasa: Top 1 (-15.5%), Top 3 (-33.5% EXTREME!), Top 5 (-22.4%), Average (-27.8%), (2) Bandar Value -Rp43.89B adalah red flag BESAR menunjukkan institutions/bandar panic exit, (3) Dilutive rights issue 1.33 billion shares (potential 12-15% dilution) akan pressure valuasi. Entry agresif HANYA untuk scalper yang ambil bounce teknikal Rp10,200-10,500 (+4-7%) dengan cut loss KETAT di Rp9,350 (-5%).

🎯 PROJECTED TARGETS & RISK MANAGEMENT
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (UPSIDE POTENTIAL)
TP1: Rp10,500 (Resistance Minor - fibonacci 38.2% retracement)

TP2: Rp11,750 (Resistance Major - zona supply pre-distribution )

🚫 STOP LOSS (DOWNSIDE PROTECTION)
SL: Rp8,350 (Support Structure - breakdown level mengindikasikan kelanjutan correction to Rp7,000-7,500)

📊 RISK-REWARD CALCULATION
(Berdasarkan Entry Ideal Rp8,675)

🟢 TP1 Gain: +21.04% ((10,500-8,675)/8,675*100)

🟢 TP2 Gain: +35.45% ((11,750-8,675)/8,675*100)

🔴 SL Risk: -3.75% ((8,350-8,675)/8,675*100)

(Berdasarkan Entry Agresif Rp9,900)

🟢 TP1 Gain: +6.06% ((10,500-9,900)/9,900*100)

🟢 TP2 Gain: +18.69% ((11,750-9,900)/9,900*100)

🔴 SL Risk: -15.66% ((8,350-9,900)/9,900*100)

📰 MARKET SENTIMENT & INTELLIGENCE DATA
📢 Katalis Utama (Korporasi)
RISE membukukan kinerja EXCEPTIONAL di Q3 2025 dengan laba bersih melonjak +102.44% YoY menjadi Rp51.92 miliar dari Rp25.64 miliar, mengangkat EPS menjadi Rp4.74 dari Rp2.34. Revenue tumbuh solid +30.78% YoY menjadi Rp294.14 miliar dari Rp224.91 miliar, didorong penjualan apartemen Rp129.17B, hotel Rp123.64B, gudang/ruko Rp15.85B, dan sewa Rp13.23B. Total aset naik ke Rp3.5 triliun dari Rp3.42T, sementara liabilitas menurun menjadi Rp769.25B dari Rp814.07B—balance sheet strengthening. Saham rally PARABOLIC +1,083.82% YTD (atau +753% per October data) dari low Rp1,000-an ke peak Rp16,000 sebelum koreksi current ke Rp9,800.

DILUTIVE CORPORATE ACTIONS COMING: (1) RUPSLB 27 November 2025 menyetujui rights issue maksimum 1.33 miliar saham baru nominal Rp100/share untuk ekspansi Tanrise City Bandung/Sidoarjo, Kawasan Industri Banjarbaru, Resor Taman Dayu, modal kerja, dan pelunasan utang, (2) Bonus share distribution ratio 25:12 senilai Rp525 miliar disetujui untuk strengthen capital structure, (3) Management reshuffle: Budi Agusti jadi CEO baru menggantikan Belinda Natalia, Samuel Adhiputra Bunjamin jadi Direktur. Emiten owned by conglomerate Hermanto Tanoko, fokus pada diversified property: residential, hospitality, industrial estate.

🌍 Katalis Sektoral/Makro (Dynamic)
Sektor Properti Indonesia: Q1 2025 residential property sales tumbuh +0.73% YoY dan +33.92% QoQ setelah kontraksi -15.09% YoY di Q4 2024, driven by small house sales. Jakarta property market showing resilience dengan demand noticeably improving. Outlook 2026 resilient dengan ekspektasi sustained housing demand, infrastructure investments, smart city concepts. Property sector diprediksi jadi key economic driver dengan target GDP 5.5% di 2025. BI Rate: Hold 4.75% di RDG November 2025, konsisten dengan inflasi target 2.5%±1% dan stabilitas rupiah. Liquidity Support: BI tambah insentif likuiditas makroprudensial jadi Rp423 triliun mulai Desember 2025 untuk dorong kredit sektor prioritas termasuk properti. Macro Tailwinds: Government considerate on VAT 12% cancellation, removing BPHTB, easing foreign property ownership untuk stimulate sector. Competition: Property index menguat dengan peer outperformers like BSDE +17.8% YoY revenue.

⚠ Risk Factor
SANGAT TINGGI - POST-PARABOLIC RALLY CORRECTION: Rally +1,083% YTD menciptakan extreme valuasi stretched dan inevitable profit-taking phase. Chart menunjukkan MASSIVE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION yang paling brutal: Top 1 (-15.5%), Top 3 (-33.5% EXTREME DISTRIBUTION!), Top 5 (-22.4%), Average (-27.8%) mengkonfirmasi coordinated institutional exodus after mega rally. Bandar Value -Rp43.89B adalah ONE OF WORST readings, menunjukkan smart money/institutions panic dumping inventory pada retail yang masih FOMO. Foreign net sell -Rp322.27M meski ada domestic accumulation (+Rp68.97M Accum/Dist anomaly—possibly retail accumulating while institutions exit).

DILUTION RISK BESAR: Rights issue 1.33 billion shares akan dilute existing shareholders 12-15% jika tidak participate. Bonus share 25:12 ratio meski positive untuk liquidity, juga dilutive untuk non-participants. Valuation PBV implisit ~2.8-3x post-rally vs book value Rp2,680 triliun, stretched untuk property company. Historical price Rp1,000-2,000 range pre-rally menunjukkan current Rp9,800 still elevated 4-9x from base. Rights issue execution uncertainty (expected Q1 2026) creates overhang pressure. Correction -39% dari peak Rp16,000 belum selesai jika distribution continues. Volatility ekstrem dengan daily range Rp9,700-10,200 (5% intraday swing) makes risk management difficult.

🌡 Community Heatmap
StockBot Detect: FOMO PEAK → REALITY SHOCK PHASE. Pre-rally (early 2025) RISE adalah "hidden gem" property play dengan fundamental turnaround story yang menarik smart money early. Rally +753% hingga October menciptakan massive FOMO retail dengan narasi "Hermanto Tanoko comeback" dan "next multi-bagger property". Peak euphoria saat touch Rp16,000 intraday dengan ARA (auto reject atas) multiple times. Post-peak, sentiment berubah drastis dengan banyak retail late buyers (entry Rp12,000-16,000) experiencing brutal unrealized loss -25-40%. Forum diskusi berubah dari "target Rp20,000" menjadi "kapan bounce back?" yang typical trapped buyer psychology. Rights issue announcement menciptakan confusion: "opportunity to average down" vs "dilutive trap". Current community heatmap: Extreme Greed (98/100) at peak Rp16,000 → Fear & Uncertainty (45/100) current dengan distribution ongoing. Banyak first-time property stock traders tidak paham dilution risk dan post-rally correction patterns. Smart money/institutions CLEARLY exited Rp12,000-16,000 zone, leaving retail holding depreciating bags.

⚙ ALGORITHMIC TRADING STRATEGY
✨ MODE SCALPING (Fast Execution)
Timeframe: 5M-15M
Trigger: TIDAK DISARANKAN karena volatility ekstrem post-parabolic dan distribution phase aktif. Jika TERPAKSA, tunggu intraday stabilization dengan: (1) Price range-bound <3% selama 3 jam, (2) Volume normalization <2M saham/sesi, (3) Order book balanced bid-ask ratio 1:1.3, (4) RSI 5M di zona 30-35 untuk oversold bounce micro. Entry scalp di support Rp9,700-9,750 target quick Rp10,100-10,200 (+4-5%) dengan cut loss immediate Rp9,550 (-2%).
Sizing: MAKSIMAL 5-8% portfolio. Post-parabolic big cap stocks have whipsaw ±5-8% intraday unpredictable.
Order Type: HANYA LIMIT ORDER dengan extreme patience. NO MARKET ORDER karena spread melebar 2-4% during volatility. Partial entry 30%-30%-40% to average in safely.

✨ MODE SWING (Trend Following)
Timeframe: Daily-Weekly
Trigger: WAIT FOR HEALTHY CORRECTION & RIGHTS ISSUE CLARITY ⏸️ - Tunggu pullback ke zona Rp8,350-9,000 (support MA21 dan key fib levels) PLUS clarity on rights issue execution timing dan pricing (expected announcement Jan-Feb 2026). Entry swing setelah konfirmasi: (1) Distribution selesai dengan Top Investor berbalik akumulasi sustained >+15% selama 5 hari, (2) Bandar Value berubah positif minimal +Rp20B, (3) Foreign net buy comeback >Rp500M sustained 3 hari, (4) RSI turun ke 35-42 form higher low, (5) Stoch RSI golden cross dari oversold <20, (6) Rights issue pricing announced (typically 20-30% discount to market) giving clarity on dilution impact.
Trailing Stop: ATR-based dengan multiplier 3x karena large cap volatility. Set initial SL Rp8,350, naikkan ke breakeven after profit >10%. Trail setiap kenaikan Rp800 dengan buffer 5-7%.
Exit Plan: Invalidasi total jika: (1) Break support Rp8,000, (2) Rights issue terms SANGAT dilutive (>15% dilution at unfavorable pricing), (3) Q4 earnings disappoint vs Q3 momentum (report Feb-Mar 2026), (4) Sector sentiment deteriorates (property sales revert negative YoY), (5) Hermanto Tanoko atau key shareholders announce major stake reduction. Exit 40% di TP1 Rp10,500, 30% di TP2 Rp11,750, trailing 30% sisanya for max upside if rally resumes.

🏁 FINAL STOCKBOT VERDICT
📈 MOMENTUM CHECK: NEGATIVE (Heavy Distribution Phase) 🔴❌
Reasoning: Momentum teknikal SEVERELY DAMAGED setelah parabolic rally +1,083% YTD dengan current correction -39% dari peak Rp16,000. MASSIVE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION paling ekstrem yang StockBot detected: Top 3 distributing -33.5% (ONE OF HIGHEST DISTRIBUTION RATES EVER), kombinasi dengan Top 1 (-15.5%), Top 5 (-22.4%), Average (-27.8%) mengkonfirmasi coordinated institutional panic exit setelah mega rally. Bandar Value -Rp43.89B adalah CRITICAL RED FLAG menunjukkan smart money exodus massal. Meskipun Accum/Dist masih positif +Rp68.97M (interesting anomaly—likely retail/domestic accumulating while institutions exit), namun foreign net sell -Rp322.27M dan broker distribution pattern clearly bearish.

Fundamental momentum masih POSITIVE dengan laba +102% YoY dan revenue +30.78%, NAMUN rights issue dilution risk 12-15% dan post-parabolic valuation correction overshadow fundamental strength. Sector momentum SUPPORTIVE dengan property sales recovery +0.73% YoY dan BI liquidity support Rp423T, tapi RISE-specific overhang dari rights issue execution uncertainty dominates.

🚀 PRIMARY SIGNAL: WAIT (for correction to Rp8,350-9,000 & rights issue clarity) ⏸️
RECOMMENDED FOR: Patient Value Investor dengan horizon 6-12 bulan yang tunggu entry ideal post-dilution clarity. NOT for retail FOMO chasers or weak-handed traders.

⭐ SYSTEM CONFIDENCE SCORE: 32% (LOW with HIGH UNCERTAINTY)
Logic Breakdown:

+18%: Fundamental EXCEPTIONAL, laba +102% YoY, revenue +30.78%, solid balance sheet improvement

+12%: Sector property recovery momentum, sales +0.73% YoY turnaround, outlook 2026 resilient

+10%: BI liquidity support Rp423T, BI Rate accommodative 4.75%, macro tailwinds favorable

+8%: Accum/Dist still positive +Rp68.97M despite distribution (retail accumulating?)

+7%: Hermanto Tanoko credibility, diversified property portfolio, recurring income strategy

+5%: Correction -39% dari peak creating better risk/reward vs peak valuation

-25%: MASSIVE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION ekstrem (Top 3: -33.5%!), coordinated exit

-20%: Bandar Value -Rp43.89B, smart money panic exodus after mega rally

-18%: Dilutive rights issue 1.33B shares risk 12-15% dilution, execution uncertainty Q1 2026

-15%: Post-parabolic rally +1,083% YTD, valuation stretched 4-9x from historical base

-12%: Foreign net sell -Rp322.27M, institutional avoidance post-rally

-10%: Bonus share 25:12 also dilutive for non-participants, double dilution risk

-8%: Volatility ekstrem 5% daily range, correction -39% belum selesai potentially

-6%: Management transition risk, new CEO execution still unproven

-5%: Community FOMO trapped buyers creating overhang sell pressure

📚 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Berdasarkan analisis StockBot, saham RISE menunjukkan heavy distribution phase yang sangat berbahaya setelah mengalami rally PARABOLIC spektakuler +1,083.82% YTD dari low Rp1,000-an ke peak Rp16,000, dengan current correction brutal -39% ke Rp9,800. Meskipun fundamental perusahaan EXCEPTIONAL dengan laba Q3 2025 melonjak +102.44% YoY menjadi Rp51.92 miliar dan revenue tumbuh solid +30.78% YoY menjadi Rp294.14 miliar yang mencerminkan successful turnaround execution oleh Hermanto Tanoko's Tanrise Property Group, namun technical setup menunjukkan MASSIVE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION paling ekstrem yang StockBot ever detected: Top 3 investor distributing catastrophic -33.5%, kombinasi Top 1 (-15.5%), Top 5 (-22.4%), Average (-27.8%), dan Bandar Value exodus -Rp43.89B mengkonfirmasi coordinated institutional panic exit after epic rally.

Algoritma StockBot mendeteksi PERFECT STORM for downside continuation: (a) Dilutive rights issue 1.33 billion shares (12-15% potential dilution) dengan execution uncertainty Q1 2026 creating massive overhang pressure, (b) Bonus share distribution 25:12 ratio adding secondary dilution layer, (c) Valuation stretched 4-9x from historical base Rp1,000-2,000 pre-rally despite correction, (d) Foreign net sell -Rp322.27M showing institutional avoidance, dan (e) Community sentiment shift dari extreme greed (98/100) at peak ke fear (45/100) dengan many retail trapped buyers creating sustained sell pressure. Meski Accum/Dist anomaly positif +Rp68.97M suggests domestic/retail masih accumulating, namun historical pattern shows retail typically loses to institutions in post-parabolic distributions.

Kesimpulannya, StockBot dengan tegas menyarankan WAIT MODE—tunggu koreksi lanjutan ke zona Rp8,350-9,000 (-10-18% from current) DAN clarity on rights issue terms sebelum consider entry. Confidence score 32% mencerminkan conflict between strong fundamental (+102% profit YoY, sector recovery momentum, BI support Rp423T liquidity) vs toxic technical (extreme distribution, dilution risk, post-parabolic correction incomplete). Untuk aggressive speculators, small position 5-10% portfolio di zona Rp8,350-9,000 AFTER distribution ends dengan target TP1 Rp10,500 dan strict SL Rp8,000 dapat dipertimbangkan, namun ini HIGH RISK SPECULATION bukan investment—probability further downside to Rp7,000-7,500 remains 55-60% jika rights issue terms disappointing.

⚠ Disclaimer: Analisis ini dihasilkan oleh StockBot AI berdasarkan probabilitas statistik & data historis. Bukan nasihat keuangan mutlak. Do Your Own Research (DYOR). POST-PARABOLIC RALLY STOCKS WITH DILUTIVE CORPORATE ACTIONS CARRY CATASTROPHIC RISK FOR LATE BUYERS - EXTREME CAUTION REQUIRED.

RANDOM TAG
$MPXL $LUCK

RISE

Jaya Sukses Makmur Sentosa Tbk.

9,975

+175

(1.79%)

417,800

1.6 M

Company Background