$PAVREIT / 5212 (PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST)
Research by Kenanga
OUTPERFORM– TP RM1.59
“Unscathed in a Crowded Market”
PAVREIT’s 1QFY24 results met expectations. Its 1HFY24 core net profit soared 33% YoY driven largely by contribution from new asset Pavilion Bukit Jalil. Its core shopping malls in KL city centre held up relatively well despite competition from the new TRX mall. We keep our forecasts, TP of RM1.59 and OUTPERFORM call.
Analyst:
Clement Chua
clement.chua@kenanga.com.my
$PAVREIT / 5212 (PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST)
Research by RHB
Neutral – TP RM1.50
“Seasonally Slower Quarter”
Pavilion REIT’s 1H24 results were in line with expectations, recording higher occupancy rates across its portfolio. QoQ, earnings declined during the seasonally slower quarter, but we should see a pickup in 2H24 driven by the recovering tourism sector. With one year left to meet its NPI target, we think Pavilion Bukit Jalil (PBJ) might not meet its target and may be revalued lower than the initial MYR2.2bn price point.
Analyst:
Wan Muhammad Ammar Affan
ammaraffan@rhbgroup.com
Loong Kok Wen CFA
loong.kok.wen@rhbgroup.com
$PAVREIT / 5212 (PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST)
Research by HLIB
BUY – TP RM1.60
“Slight shortfall”
Pavilion REIT’s 2Q24 core net profit of RM67.1m (-19.3% QoQ, +6.7% YoY) brought 1H24 sum to RM150.3m (+13.1% YoY). The results came in below ours and street estimates at 41% and 44% respectively. The negative deviation was due to lower gross revenue than expected. Declared DPU of 4.53 sen/unit vs 4.41 sen/unit SPLY. In view of the results shortfall, we cut our FY24/25/26 forecasts by -7.4%/-7.0%/-6.5% respectively. Nonetheless, management remains positive for the remaining two quarters of the year due to (i) higher tourist arrivals and (ii) higher rental income contribution from PBJ. Maintain BUY with slightly lower TP of RM1.60.
Analyst:
Tan Je Jyne
JJTan@hlib.hongleong.com.my
$PAVREIT / 5212 (PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST)
Research by MIDF
BUY – TP RM1.60
"Solid Earnings"
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RM1.60. We maintain our TP for Pavilion REIT at RM1.60, based on Dividend Discount Model. We continue to like Pavilion REIT as earnings prospect remains solid with steady contribution from Pavilion KL Mall which is supported by higher tourist arrivals. Besides, the better performance of Pavilion Bukit Jalil should provide upside to the earnings growth. Hence, we maintain ourBUY call on Pavilion REIT. Meanwhile, net distribution yield is estimated
Analyst:
Jessica Low Jze Tieng
jessica.low@midf.com.my
$PAVREIT / 5212 (PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST)
Pavilion REIT’s 2Q NPI up 18.8%, distributes 4.53 sen per unit
Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust’s (KL:PAVREIT) net property income (NPI) increased 18.8% year-on-year in the second quarter ended June 30 (2QFY2024) to RM120.3 million against RM101 million a year ago.
https://cutt.ly/2ejaovPr
Recap of the Penang Global City Center Project Collapse
The Penang Global City Centre (PGCC) project, launched in 2007, was envisioned as a transformative development for Penang but ultimately failed due to its impractical scale.
Abad Naluri Sdn Bhd, an associate company of $GOB / 1147 (GLOBAL ORIENTAL BERHAD) (formerly Equine Capital Bhd), was set to undertake the RM25 billion project. Located on Penang Turf Club (PTC) land in Batu Gantong, the PGCC was conditional on Abad Naluri constructing a new turf club in Batu Kawan as a replacement. Below is a timeline of key events:
2002:
- Abad Naluri Sdn Bhd submits its tender to build a new race course for the Penang Turf Club (PTC) at a 250-acre site in Batu Kawan.
- Penang Development Corp (PDC) agrees to sell 750 acres in Batu Kawan to Abad Naluri for RM3 per square foot, with 300 acres earmarked for the new turf club.
2003:
- A preliminary agreement is signed between PTC and Abad Naluri. Abad Naluri advances RM10 million to PTC to acquire the PTC land in Batu Gantong for around RM488 million.
- Abad Naluri agrees to build the Batu Kawan race course for RM375 million, with a completion target of 2007.
2004:
- PDC enters a master agreement to sell eight parcels of land in Batu Kawan, totaling over 1,000 acres, to Abad Naluri. The 300-acre parcel for the new race course is priced at RM46 million.
2005:
- Layout plans for the Batu Kawan race course are approved.
2006:
- Abad Naluri submits applications for planning permission for PGCC on the PTC land.
2007:
- In October, then Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi launches the PGCC project. However, the acquisition of the PTC land is not completed, and work on the Batu Kawan race course has not started.
2008:
- The PGCC project fails to take off after the new state government takes over following the March 8 general election.
- Global Oriental Bhd sells its stake in Abad Naluri to Kiara Ikhtisas for RM2 million in October.
- Datuk Patrick Lim Soo Kit steps down as chairman and executive director of Global Oriental Bhd in October.
2009:
- In July, PTC terminates its agreements with Abad Naluri due to the latter's failure to pay liquidated damages for delays in building the new turf club in Batu Kawan.
2011:
- A 'compromise' is reached between Abad Naluri and PDC.
- Abad Naluri enters a supplemental agreement with PDC to acquire 145 acres in Batu Kawan upon fulfilment of certain conditions.
- Equine Capital (formerly Global Oriental) acquires the rights to develop 126.04 acres in Batu Kawan from Abad Naluri for RM16.7 million, earmarked for mixed development.
As Barisan Nasional is now part of the unity government with Pakatan Harapan and the project is set to be revived, there are questions about whether $GOB / 1147 (GLOBAL ORIENTAL BERHAD) will still be contesting? Speculation suggests that Tan Sri Desmond Lim controls GOB, which is plausible given that the company has developed projects under the "Pavilion" brand, such as Pavilion Genting Highlands and Pavilion Embassy. Additionally, GOB previously developed and owned Da Men Mall, a poorly performing mall later sold to $PAVREIT / 5212 (PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST).
Read more: https://cutt.ly/uegddhEQ
OTHERSTARGETED DATE OF RELEASE OF UNAUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE SECOND QUARTER ENDED 30 JUNE 2024 ("QUARTERLY RESULTS") OF PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST