Saham: FPNI - PT. Lotte Chemical Titan Tbk.

$FPNI

Berikut penjelasan kenapa status PSN (Proyek Strategis Nasional) pada proyek LCI bisa sangat menguntungkan FPNI dan mem-’membutuhkan’ atau menjadikan FPNI sebagai pihak yang ikut terangkat valuasinya:

1. LCI Adalah Proyek Kunci yang Terhubung Langsung ke FPNI

LCI (Lotte Chemical Indonesia) adalah pabrik ethylene–naphtha cracker raksasa yang menjadi bagian dari ekosistem petrokimia Indonesia.
FPNI memiliki hubungan langsung melalui:

Direksi yang sama / overlap struktur manajemen,

Kedekatan rantai pasok,

Kemungkinan menjadi pemasok (supplier) atau distributor,

Potensi penggabungan usaha, integrasi vertikal, atau penguasaan aset di kemudian hari.

Artinya, ketika LCI masuk PSN, maka seluruh entitas yang berada di sekitar rantai nilai—termasuk FPNI—ikut memperoleh “multiplier effect”.

2. Status PSN Mengubah Profil Risiko & Prospek Industri Petrokimia

Ketika proyek besar seperti LCI ditetapkan sebagai PSN, dampaknya:

✔ Pemerintah memberi prioritas percepatan

perizinan lebih cepat

dukungan infrastruktur

fasilitas fiskal

Ini mengurangi risiko keterlambatan dan memastikan proyek berjalan, sehingga pemain petrokimia nasional—termasuk FPNI—ikut menikmati peningkatan kepastian permintaan dan volume bisnis.

3. Pabrik LCI yang Mulai Beroperasi = Demand Baru yang Sangat Besar

LCI adalah pabrik naphtha cracker terbesar di Indonesia. Ketika operasi penuh:

Permintaan resin, polyethylene, polypropylene, bahan kimia antara akan melonjak.

FPNI sebagai produsen/ distributor di segmen kegiatan hilir akan diuntungkan.

Kapasitas FPNI akan dipakai secara lebih optimal → laba naik.

➡ Ini salah satu alasan kenapa FPNI tiba-tiba untung di Q3, karena mulai mendapat efek awal aktivitas LCI.

4. Efek PSN: Valuasi Emiten Rantai Industri Naik

Biasanya ketika satu proyek raksasa menjadi PSN, pasar melihat:

ada integrasi bisnis,

ada kepastian demand,

ada “story besar” jangka panjang.

Contoh historis:
BREN — semua entitas yang berada dalam rantai renewable energy ikut dihargai premium.
CUAN — karena proyek smelter, saham-saham terkait ikut terangkat secara naratif.

➡ FPNI bisa mendapatkan re-rating valuasi karena “dikaitkan” dengan PSN LCI.

5. Kemungkinan Integrasi atau Merger ke Depan

Karena:

direksi mirip

lokasi bisnis terhubung

rantai pasok saling melengkapi

FPNI punya aset & izin industri

Pasar mulai melihat kemungkinan:

→ FPNI menjadi entitas publik yang “membungkus” ekspansi LCI

atau

→ Potensi merger/akuisisi kecil-besar untuk konsolidasi bisnis petrokimia

Status PSN memperbesar peluang karena investor dan pemerintah menyukai konsolidasi yang meningkatkan efisiensi.

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Institutional Research Note
Indonesia’s Polyethylene Deficit & Why $FPNI–LCI Integration Is Structurally Transformative

Indonesia faces a long-standing structural deficit in Polyethylene (PE), with annual domestic demand far exceeding local production. The entry of Lotte Chemical Indonesia (LCI) and its strategic integration with Lotte Chemical Titan Nusantara (FPNI) represents one of the most material industrial shifts in Indonesia’s petrochemical landscape over the past two decades.

We view this integration as a high-conviction structural theme that may re-rate FPNI’s long-term earnings power and positioning within the sector.

1.Indonesia’s PE Deficit: A Structural Issue, Not Cyclical

PE demand (Indonesia):
2.0–2.2 million tons per year

Effective domestic supply:
Only 800–900 thousand tons, primarily from TPIA and FPNI.

Import dependency:
Indonesia imports 1.1–1.3 million tons annually ,one of the highest import gaps in ASEAN.

Drivers of demand:
Food & beverage packaging
Consumer goods
Ecommerce logistics
EV Automotive plastic components

Demand is growing 5–7% annually; without domestic expansion, the deficit will widen further.

Conclusion: Indonesia fundamentally requires additional domestic PE supply.

2.LCI–FPNI Integration: A New Domestic Value Chain Anchor

LCI (Upstream):
New ethylene cracker
1 million tons/year capacity
Advanced energy-efficient technologies
Designed for 90–100% utilisation
2023–2025 commissioning

FPNI (Downstream):
PE manufacturer
450–500k tons/year PE/LLDPE capacity
Previously constrained by ethylene shortages
Operating utilisation historically 50–65%

Strategic integration impact:

Before LCI After LCI
Ethylene supply uncertain Dedicated supply 10 years
High feedstock cost More stable & efficient feedstock
Volatile utilisation Utilisation 85–95% achievable
Limited earnings visibility Structural EPS expansion

This integration mirrors the early phase of what Catapulted TPIA into a multi-decade growth trajectory.

3.Quantifying FPNI’s Role in Reducing Imports

When LCI operates fully and FPNI utilisation reaches 85–95%:
Incremental PE availability:
+300,000 to 350,000 tons annually
This alone covers 25–30% of Indonesia’s PE import gap.

Strategic implication:
FPNI becomes a nationally important PE supplier, materially reducing import reliance and stabilizing domestic supply for fast-growing industries.

4.Earnings Re-Rating Story for FPNI

LCI’s feedstock integration directly enhances profitability:

Lower feedstock cost
Ethylene purchased from LCI is more stable and operationally efficient compared to imported feedstock.

Higher utilisation = higher operating leverage
Petrochemical plants have strong fixed-cost leverage.
A utilisation increase from 65% → 90% can lift net earnings disproportionately (30%+ impact).

Resulting 2026 forecasts (institutional fair-case):
Revenue: Rp 8.18 – 8.42 trillion
EBITDA: Rp 3.0 – 3.12 trillion
Net profit: Rp 1.71 – 1.94 trillion
EPS: 421 – 427
Free float remains low (~7.5%), magnifying potential re-pricing if earnings materialize.

5.Positioning vs. $TPIA

TPIA remains the sector leader, but FPNI begins a new structural phase
FPNI is not competing head-to-head with $TPIA, it is entering a similar integration path from a lower base, which historically creates disproportionate re-rating potential.

5 Investment View

Why FPNI is relevant for institutional portfolios:
1.Structural earnings inflection post-integration
2.Domestic substitution theme replacing imports
3.Low capex requirement strong free cash flow trajectory
4.Favorable industry structure (duopoly: TPIA + FPNI)
5.Supportive macro narrative: Indonesia’s growing packaging & consumer sector
6.Potential policy tailwind for reducing chemical imports
7.Attractive forward valuation (PER 4–5x vs sector 15–30x)

With the commissioning of LCI and rising utilisation at FPNI, Indonesia gains one of the most efficient new PE production chains in ASEAN.
FPNI becomes a crucial domestic supplier capable of reducing national import dependency, while simultaneously entering a multi-year structural earnings expansion cycle.

This puts FPNI in a rare position:
a duopoly market, rising utilisation, asset-light model, and an inflection in earnings visibility ,a combination the market often prices aggressively once confirmed.

FPNI

Lotte Chemical Titan Tbk.

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34.79 M

Company Background