oke lanjut part 38 : beberapa perusahaan sudah mulai publikasi FY-2025 nya. Sekarang kita cek status dan siklus 2-5 tahunannya. 3 emiten dulu (TOBA, PANR, KMTR)
$TOBA , PT TBS Energi Utama Tbk
Segmen usaha utama:
- Coal mining : tambang batubara (ABN, TMU dll)
- Waste management : pengolahan sampah & circular economy
- Renewable energy : mini hydro, solar, rencana wind
- EV ecosystem : motor listrik, battery swapping, charging
Strategi utama TBS2030 – exit coal menuju sustainability company
Capex Strategy Per Tahun
2021 coal optimization, high cash flow
2022 EV ecosystem start, strategic
2023 waste management acquisition, good
2024 renewable pipeline, moderate
2025 divest coal plants, transformation
Observasi penting: Capex tidak diarahkan ke coal lagi. Prioritas:
1️⃣ Waste management
2️⃣ Renewable power
3️⃣ EV ecosystem
Fase Emiten
2021 Coal Cash Cow, supercycle
2022 Coal Peak, peak earnings
2023 Transition, earnings drop
2024 Investment Phase, growth capex
2025 Post-Coal Strategy, sustainability focus
Market Segment Outlook (Non Coal)
- Waste management : VERY HIGH, early mover
- Renewables : HIGH, early stage
- EV ecosystem : HIGH, niche ecosystem
- Coal : DECLINING, gradually exit
Kesimpulan penting:
TOBA bukan lagi coal stock.
Dia sedang berubah menjadi energy transition holding company.
Short term ➡ earnings rendah
Medium term ➡ renewable + waste compounder
Jika strategi berhasil: earnings bisa 3–4x dalam 5–7 tahun
Fair Value 720–840 per share
Status : Transition Growth
Investment Type : Long-term energy transition
lanjut $PANR , holding tourism ecosystem yang bergerak di 3 Segmen utama:
- Inbound tourism : handling turis asing ke Indonesia, tour operator Asia Tenggara
- Outbound / travel leisure : travel agent, corporate travel, tour packages
- Travel-related services : MICE, transport, logistics wisata
Struktur bisnisnya membentuk integrated tourism ecosystem (tour operator → transport → destination management).
Artinya modelnya high operating leverage: kalau volume turis naik → profit naik cepat.
PANR sekarang late recovery → normal phase = 7–9x TE
Fair Value Estimation
TEPS = 94
Intrinsic range: 600 – 850 per share
Capex PANR tidak seperti industri berat.
Mayoritas dipakai untuk:
1. Transportation fleet : bus wisata, shuttle, logistic tourism
2. Destination infrastructure : tourism hubs, experiential tourism
3. Digital platform : booking system, travel ecosystem
Pattern Capex
2021 survival mode
2022 fleet recovery
2023 tourism network rebuild
2024 digital + expansion
2025 scaling tourism ecosystem
Artinya capex lebih ke asset-light growth.
Fase Emiten PANR
2021 Distress recovery, survival, pandemi
2022 Early recovery, restructuring, turis mulai kembali
2023 Turnaround, profit kembali, tourism rebound
2024 Stabilization, cashflow mulai kuat, demand stabil
2025 Expansion, growth phase, tourism boom
Indonesia tourism:
trend:
- inbound tourism growth
- ASEAN tourism rebound
- experiential tourism naik
PANR posisi kuat karena:
- regional network
- MICE
- integrated ecosystem
True earning mulai stabil sejak 2023 dan 2025 sudah masuk fase normal profit.
PANR bukan pure tourism stock, tapi tourism ecosystem group.
Ini membuat revenue besar, margin kecil, reinvestment tinggi
Artinya dividend story biasanya lambat muncul.
lanjut $KMTR , PT Kirana Megatara Tbk adalah processor karet alam (natural rubber processing).
Model bisnisnya:
- Membeli lateks / cup lump dari petani
- Diproses menjadi TSR (Technically Specified Rubber) / crumb rubber
- Dijual ke pabrik ban global.
Customer utama biasanya:
- Michelin
- Bridgestone
- Goodyear
- Continental
Karakter bisnis:
- margin tipis
- volume driven
- sangat tergantung harga karet dunia
Public expose menunjukkan KMTR adalah processor terbesar dunia dengan sekitar 21-22% market share global.
Kalau kita average cycle rubber industry:
Normalized earning: ± Rp150B / tahun
EPS normal: Rp18 / share
Karakter bisnis KMTR:
- commodity processor
- margin rendah
- earnings sangat cyclic
Biasanya market kasih 6x – 8x PE
Fair value wajar Rp110 – Rp145
Kalau market lagi euforia karet Rp170 masih masuk
Dari laporan keuangan terlihat capex fokus pada:
1️⃣ Expansion processing capacity
pembangunan: pabrik crumb rubber baru, upgrade line processing
2️⃣ Plantation integration
aset: tanaman karet menghasilkan, tanaman belum menghasilkan
Tujuannya: stabil supply bahan baku, kontrol kualitas
3️⃣ Logistic & storage : gudang, conveyor, dryer
tidak ekspansi agresif → lebih maintenance capex
Fase Bisnis KMTR
Industry cycle : Early recovery
Rubber price : naik tipis
Demand tyre : stabil
Company phase : turnaround
Market Segment
tyre demand : stabil
EV tyre demand : naik
rubber supply : tightening
China demand : naik
Ini supportive untuk processor.
Outlook KMTR 2026
Q1 2026 Kemungkinan: revenue stabil, margin naik sedikit, karena harga rubber masih kuat.
Q2 2026 driver utama:
1️⃣ China tyre demand
2️⃣ rubber supply Indonesia
3️⃣ freight cost
Potensi earnings: Q1 + Q2 bisa 80-110B