Rilis data ekonomi US

✅ Non Farm Payrolls Feb = -92K (vs previous 126K, vs consensus 59K)
✅ Unemployment Rate Feb = 4,4% (vs previous and consensus 4,3%)
➖ U-6 Unemployment Rate Feb = 7,9% (vs previous 8,1%)

❌ Average Hourly Earnings MoM Feb = 0,4% (vs previous 0,4%, vs consensus 0,3%)
❌ Average Hourly Earnings YoY Feb = 3,8% (vs previous and consensus 3,7%)

✅ Retail Sales MoM Jan = -0,2% (vs previous 0%, vs consensus -0,3%)
❌ Retail Sales Control Group MoM Jan = 0,3% (vs previous 0%, vs consensus 0,2%)
✅ Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM Jan = 0% (vs previous and consensus 0%)
❌ Retail Sales Ex Gas Autos MoM Jan = 0,3% (vs previous 0,1%, vs consensus 0%)
❌ Retail Sales YoY Jan = 3,2% (vs previous 2,4%)

❌ Used Car Prices MoM Feb = 0,8% (vs previous 2,4%)
❌ Used Car Prices YoY Feb = 4% (vs previous 2,4%)

Labor market US menunjukkan tanda pelemahan.
Namun di sisi lain, pendapatan pekerja masih cukup kuat pertumbuhannya.

Performa penjualan eceran juga tidak menunjukkan pelemahan yang solid.

Harga kendaraan bekas pun masih meningkat signifikan.

Perkembangan demikian justru meningkatkan risiko stagflasi.
Kalaupun Fed harus cut rate, itu hanya untuk mencegah merosotnya ekonomi US, bukan karena inflasi yang turun.

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