oke lanjut part 29 : beberapa perusahaan sudah mulai publikasi FY-2025 nya. Sekarang kita cek status dan siklus 5 tahunannya. 3 emiten dulu (GGRP, IFSH, LPKR)

PT Gunung Raja Paksi Tbk ( $GGRP ) adalah produsen baja terintegrasi (long steel & flat steel tertentu), bagian dari Gunung Steel Group.
Core business:
- Steel billet
- Steel plate
- Hot rolled coil tertentu
- Konstruksi baja
- Blast furnace–based integrated steel production
Karakter bisnis:
- Sangat cyclical
- Sensitif harga baja global & iron ore
- Margin sangat bergantung pada spread harga jual vs bahan baku
- Capex berat (blast furnace, rolling mill)

fase GGRP
2021 Peak supercycle, Strong, Harga baja global tinggi, Cash inflow kuat
2022 Downcycle awal, Margin compress, Oversupply global, Spread menyempit
2023 Bottoming, Stabil, Restruktur & divestasi, Core normalize
2024 Early recovery, Improving, Demand domestik naik, Margin membaik
2025 Mid-cycle soft, Cash focus, Tekanan harga baja, Defensive stance

Segmen utama: Infrastruktur, Properti industri, Manufaktur, Ekspor regional
Faktor kunci: Proyek pemerintah, Nilai tukar USD, Harga iron ore & scrap, Proteksi baja impor
2026 sangat tergantung:
- Stimulus infrastruktur
- Proteksi baja lokal
- Harga baja China

capex GGRP : Blast furnace project (sejak 2013) menjadi key asset.
Strategi capex:
- Integrasi hulu → kontrol bahan baku
- Efisiensi energi
- Product mix upgrade (value-added steel)
- Utilization improvement
Evaluasi efektivitas:
2021: Capex menghasilkan peak margin (supercycle support)
2022–2023: Return turun → menunjukkan leverage operasional tinggi
2024: Utilisasi membaik
2025: Working capital tightening (inventory turun signifikan)

Catatan 2025 inventory turun drastis → manajemen mengoptimalkan modal kerja.
Artinya Fokus shifting dari ekspansi → efisiensi & cash preservation.

GGRP adalah ⚙️ Cyclical steel producer dengan leverage operasional tinggi

Fair value GGRP di 6–7x normalized earning kira-kira: Rp300 – Rp400 per share.

lanjut $IFSH , perusahaan tambang nikel laterit yang memiliki:
- IUP Pertambangan Nikel
- IUP Silika (melalui anak usaha)

Fokus usaha:
- Penambangan bijih nikel (saprolite & limonite)
- Penjualan domestik ke smelter (HPAL & RKEF)
Model bisnis: mining → hauling → stockpile → shipment
Karakter bisnis:
- Sangat tergantung harga nikel global
- Cashflow dipengaruhi siklus harga komoditas
- Working capital heavy (piutang & persediaan tinggi saat harga naik)

fase IFSH
2021 Recovery, Undervalued cyclical, Nickel mulai naik, Low base earning
2022 Boom, Peak earning, Nickel supercycle, High margin
2023 Normalisasi, Stabil, Harga koreksi, Profit normalize
2024 Mid-cycle, Stabil, Supply global naik, Cash solid
2025 Moderasi, Defensive cyclical, Oversupply concern, Piutang naik

Karena IFSH = mining cyclical:
- Fair multiple konservatif: 4x–6x
- Mid-cycle fair multiple: 5x
Menggunakan TEPS 2024–2025 mid-cycle ~Rp50:
👉 Fair value = 5 × 50 = Rp250 per share
Range wajar = Rp200 – Rp300 per share
Kalau siklus bullish kuat bisa 6–7x → Rp300–Rp350 per share

Capex & Optimalisasi Manajemen
Dari arus kas investasi LK 2021–2025
2021–2022: Capex alat berat & infrastruktur tambang, Build-up kapasitas produksi
2023: Optimalisasi hauling & stockpile, Inventory efficiency
2024: Maintenance capex dominan, Tidak ekspansi agresif
2025: WC expansion (piutang naik signifikan), Indikasi peningkatan volume kontrak

🔎 Insight:
Manajemen cukup disiplin. Tidak agresif ekspansi saat harga turun. Lebih fokus sustain production & cashflow.

Berdasarkan Pubex 2026, Faktor kunci:
- Harga nikel global
- Kebijakan Indonesia (RKAB, kuota produksi)
- Permintaan China & EV chain

IFSH bukan compounder, tapi pure cyclical play.

lanjut $LPKR (Lippo Karawaci), integrated real estate & healthcare group
Segmen utama:
- Real Estate Development : Township (Lippo Village, Lippo Cikarang), Mid-high rise residential, Landed housing, Landbank & joint development
- Healthcare : Melalui kepemilikan di Siloam (RS swasta), Aset rumah sakit & recurring income
- Lifestyle & Commercial : Mal, hotel, properti investasi, Recurring income

Model bisnis:
- Development → cyclical
- Healthcare & mall → recurring
- Struktur masih leveraged (obligasi & lease cukup besar)

Karakter LPKR:
- Developer cyclic
- Leverage tinggi
- Turnaround phase
👉 Wajar multiple konservatif: 5x–8x true earning = 60-90 per share

fase LPKR
2021 Survival, Restrukturisasi, Lemah
2022 Stabilizing, Debt control, Normalisasi
2023 Recovery, Margin improve, Demand naik
2024 Expansion awal, Cash kuat, Siklus naik
2025 Recovery mature, Balance sheet membaik, Stabil

Capex Strategy per Tahun
2021–2022 : Capex minimal, Fokus penyelesaian proyek existing, Defensive mode
2023 : Mulai selective land development, Healthcare expansion moderat, Capex masih terkendali
2024 : Capex naik -> Construction progress township, Penguatan recurring assets, RS expansion
2025 : Capex lebih agresif -> Proyek high-rise, Mixed-use, Healthcare upgrade

👉 Manajemen memaksimalkan capex dengan:
- Asset recycling
- Joint development
- Pre-sales funding model
- Cash rotation dari inventory
- Strategi cukup disiplin dibanding era sebelum 2018.

LPKR sudah keluar dari fase survival.
Sekarang masuk fase Recovery with improving cash discipline
Namun tetap: High beta, Cyclical, Sensitif bunga