🔬 STOCKBOT QUANTUM ANALYTICS
║ Institutional Grade Market Insight ║
🔥 MARKET PULSE: $BRPT
📅 Data per: 12 Februari 2026 | 🚦 Status: BEARISH-STABILIZING ⚠️📉🛡️ (Post-Crash with Buyback Floor)
📰 INTELEJEN BERITA (Radar 1 Bulan Terakhir - 2026)
🗞️ Headline Kunci:
"BUYBACK RAKSASA Rp1 TRILIUN (4 Feb - 3 Mei 2026) untuk Stabilisasi Harga" - 3 Februari 2026
"CRASH BRUTAL: -25% dalam 10 Hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb), Tertinggal Saham Grup Barito" - 8 Februari 2026
"Insider Buying: Prajogo Pangestu Borong 3M Saham @ Rp2.830 + 442K @ Rp2.560" - 15-23 Januari 2026
"IHSG Trading Halt -8% (28 Jan), MSCI Freeze FIF/NOS Indonesia" - 27-28 Januari 2026
"JP Morgan Upgrade to Neutral, Target Price Rp870" - Desember 2025
💡 Dampak Fundamental:
Sentimen MIXED LEANING CAUTIOUS—ini adalah classic panic sell dengan buyback lifeline. BRPT crash -25% dalam 10 hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb) bersama grup Barito (BREN -28%) akibat IHSG trading halt + MSCI freeze. TAPI management + insider response AGRESIF: buyback Rp1T (4 Feb - 3 Mei) + Prajogo accumulate 3,44M shares @ avg Rp2.788.
Harga Rp2.200 saat ini = -22,3% from Prajogo's last buy Rp2.830—ini adalah DISCOUNT to insider price.
MEGA RED FLAG #1 - Crash Brutal -25% dalam 10 Hari:
BRPT ambles >25% dari 27 Januari hingga 6 Februari 2026 —ini adalah WORST performer bahkan vs BREN yang turun -28%. Crash ini triggered by:
IHSG trading halt -8% pada 28 Januari (first halt in years)
MSCI freeze FIF/NOS untuk Indonesia di February 2026 review —NO passive inflows from ETFs
Global risk-off sentiment + local panic selling
Grup Barito menjadi sasaran utama profit-taking karena valuasi tinggi + foreign ownership heavy.
MEGA CATALYST #1 - Buyback Rp1 Triliun (ACTIVE NOW):
BRPT announce buyback Rp1 triliun pada 3 Februari, mulai 4 Februari - 3 Mei 2026 (3 bulan).
Detail Buyback:
Dana: Rp1 triliun max (bertahap)
Sumber: Excess cash internal, NOT mengganggu operasional
Durasi: 4 Feb - 3 Mei 2026 (3 bulan, masih ongoing 1 minggu++)
Broker: PT Sucor Sekuritas
Tujuan: Stabilisasi harga + optimalisasi struktur modal
Buyback Rp1T dengan saham @ Rp2.200 = potential buyback ~454 juta saham (0,48% dari 93,75 miliar shares outstanding) —ini adalah STRONG demand floor Rp2.000-2.300.
CATALYST #2 - Insider Buying MASSIVE (Prajogo Pangestu):
Prajogo Pangestu (Komisaris, pemilik 71,36%) AGRESIF accumulate di tengah volatility:
15 Jan 2026: 3 juta saham @ Rp2.830 = Rp8,49 miliar
23 Jan 2026: 442.600 saham @ Rp2.560 = Rp1,13 miliar
Total: 3,44 juta saham, avg price ~Rp2.788
Kepemilikan naik dari 66,898 miliar → 66,901 miliar saham (71,36% → 71,363%) —ini adalah STRONGEST insider buying signal: owner dengan 71%+ masih accumulate aggressively.
Harga current Rp2.200 = -21,1% DISCOUNT vs Prajogo's last buy Rp2.788—ini adalah CHEAPER than insider price.
Minor Positive #1 - JP Morgan Upgrade (Dec 2025):
JP Morgan upgrade BRPT dari Underweight → Neutral dengan target price Rp870 hingga Des 2025 —target 1-year old tapi masih +39,5% from current Rp2.200.
Rationale:
Ekspansi ke kawasan industri via anak usaha Griya Idola
Pefindo rating idA+ (Single A Plus) dengan outlook Stable
Diversifikasi portofolio beyond petrochemical
Minor Positive #2 - Fundamentals Solid 2024:
FY2024 Performance:
Revenue: Rp2,387 miliar (vs Rp2,760M di 2023 = -13,5% YoY decline)
Laba bersih: Rp56,48 miliar (vs Rp26,12M di 2023 = +116% YoY growth)
Gross margin improvement despite revenue decline
H1/2025 (latest available):
Total revenue: Rp40,47 triliun (Q2/25 data)—WAIT, ini suspicious, kemungkinan typo atau rupiah → dollar confusion
Net income Q2/25: Rp8,63 triliun—data inconsistency, need clarification
Red Flag #2 - Revenue Decline 2024:
Revenue drop -13,5% YoY (Rp2,387M vs Rp2,760M) di 2024 —ini adalah headwind dari petrochemical cycle weakness.
Red Flag #3 - Negative Cash Flow from Operations:
Cash from operations: -Rp110,18 miliar (2024) —ini adalah concerning, meski buyback didanai dari excess cash.
Red Flag #4 - Market-Wide Panic:
IHSG trading halt -8% (28 Jan)
MSCI freeze FIF/NOS = NO passive inflows
Grup Barito jadi target selling (BREN -28%, BRPT -25%)
🔗 Korelasi Makro:
Petrochemical Cycle: Weak demand, oversupply concerns
MSCI Downgrade Risk: Freeze FIF/NOS = foreign selling pressure
IHSG Volatility: Trading halt trauma, risk-off sentiment
Lotte Chemical Indonesia: Rp59,37T project start production Mar 2025 = competition
Government Support: Petrochemical as National Strategic Project (under review)
📈 BEDAH TEKNIKAL (Chart & Price Action)
📊 Tren Utama:
SEVERE DOWNTREND Post-Crash. Harga crash dari Rp2.000 base (Sep 2025) → Rp2.340 peak (late Jan 2026) = +17% → COLLAPSE to Rp2.000 low (early Feb) = -14,5% → bounce weak ke Rp2.200 saat ini.
🧱 Key Levels:
Support Kuat (Lantai):
Rp2.000-2.100 (Support Immediate - CRITICAL FLOOR, buyback zone, recent low, psychological level)
Rp1.870-1.970 (Support Major - pre-rally base, jika tembus = panic extreme)
Rp1.700-1.800 (Support Critical - mid-2025 consolidation, last stand)
Resistance (Atap):
Rp2.200-2.280 (Resistance Immediate - CURRENT PRICE, bekas support broken, mini supply)
Rp2.340-2.366 (Resistance Medium-Term - recent peak, heavy selling wall)
Rp2.500-2.830 (Resistance Major - Prajogo buy zone, strong psychological + insider cost basis)
🕯️ Pola Candlestick & Volume:
RSI 14: Di level 40.4 - approaching oversold (sub-40), masih ada room turun tapi nearing bottom
MACD: Deep negative (-259.90, massive divergence), histogram merah panjang—momentum bearish EXTREME tapi potentially exhausted
Volume: 160.49M hari ini, elevated—panic volume masih tinggi
Accumulation/Distribution: Net selling -966.04M—ini DISTRIBUTION CLIMAX, strongest selling pressure
Price Action: Red candle -3,51% dengan volume 160M + net sell -966M = capitulation ongoing tapi approaching exhaustion
Pattern: "Right Shoulder", "Triangle" annotated—Head & Shoulders completion + descending triangle = double bearish pattern
⚡ STRATEGI STOCKBOT (Keputusan Final)
REKOMENDASI: WAIT & SEE / CONTRARIAN BUY (SMALL SIZE) ⏸️💎 (Knife Still Falling, But Floor Visible) | Risk Profile: HIGH-SPECULATIVE
🚨 PERINGATAN KERAS - CATCHING FALLING KNIFE WITH GLOVES:
DO NOT buy big size sampai capitulation complete. BRPT adalah post-crash stabilization dengan conflicting signals:
BEARISH FACTORS (60% weight):
Crash brutal -25% dalam 10 hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb)
Net selling -966M hari ini = DISTRIBUTION CLIMAX ongoing
MACD -259.90 = momentum bearish extreme
Head & Shoulders pattern complete
Revenue decline -13,5% YoY 2024
Cash flow operations negative -Rp110M
MSCI freeze FIF/NOS = NO passive inflows
Petrochemical cycle weak (oversupply concerns)
BULLISH FACTORS (40% weight):
Buyback Rp1T active (4 Feb - 3 Mei) = floor support Rp2.000-2.300
Insider buying: Prajogo accumulate 3,44M shares @ avg Rp2.788 = current -21% DISCOUNT
RSI 40.4 = approaching oversold <40
Laba bersih +116% YoY 2024 (Rp56,48M vs Rp26,12M)
JP Morgan target Rp870 (+39,5% from current)
Pefindo rating idA+ Stable
Net Assessment: 60% bearish vs 40% bullish = CAUTIOUS WAIT, tapi setup contrarian emerging IF support holds.
📊 SKENARIO PROBABILITAS:
SCENARIO A - Further Flush (50% Probability):
Target drop: Rp1.970-2.100 (retest absolute low, panic final wave)
Trigger: IHSG break 8.000, foreign selling continues, Q4 results disappoint
Action: This is BEST BUY zone IF buyback active + volume spike >250M
SCENARIO B - Sideways Grind (30% Probability):
Range: Rp2.000-2.280 selama 4-8 minggu
Buyback absorb selling, tapi momentum weak
Action: AVOID—dead money trap, volatility tinggi
SCENARIO C - V-Shape Recovery (20% Probability):
Catalyst: IHSG stabilize >8.500, buyback aggressive, insider add more
Target bounce: Rp2.500-2.830 (+14-29% from current)
Low probability tanpa catalyst major
❌ CONDITIONAL ENTRY (CONTRARIAN PLAY - HIGH RISK):
IF MUST SPECULATE (MAX 2-3% of portfolio):
Entry 1: Rp 2.000-2.100 (50% porsi) - ONLY IF daily volume >200M + net buying positive (capitulation reversal signal)
Entry 2: Rp 1.970-2.050 (30% porsi) - Absolute low retest dengan buyback confirmation
Entry 3: Rp 2.200-2.280 (20% porsi) - Breakout above current with volume >250M (reversal confirmation)
Target Profit (Speculative - 3-6 bulan):
TP1: Rp 2.500 (+13-27% from entry) - Prajogo cost basis, psychological resistance
TP2: Rp 2.830 (+28-43%) - Insider buy zone retest, IF buyback + fundamentals support
TP3: Rp 870 (JP Morgan target, +39,5%, 12-18 bulan) - VERY UNLIKELY tanpa fundamental catalyst strong
🛡️ Proteksi (Stop Loss STRICT):
WAJIB CUT LOSS jika:
Daily close di bawah Rp 1.970 (breakdown absolute support = flush to Rp1.700-1.800)
Buyback stop or suspend (management give up stabilizing)
Prajogo SELL any holdings (would be shock, very low probability)
Q4 2025/Q1 2026 results disaster (revenue decline accelerate >-20% or net loss)
IHSG break 7.500 (systemic risk, all stocks flush)
Net selling sustains >800M for 5 consecutive days (distribution not exhausted)
🎯 FOR CURRENT HOLDERS:
Action 1: IF avg cost >Rp2.500, cut loss 50% at Rp2.200-2.280 bounce (reduce risk)
Action 2: IF avg cost Rp2.000-2.200, HOLD with SL Rp1.970 strict (buyback support)
Action 3: Average down ONLY at Rp1.970-2.050 IF volume spike >250M + net buying positive (max 20% additional)
📝 INSTRUKSI CHIEF (KESIMPULAN):
"BRPT adalah textbook 'when elephants fight, the grass suffers'—crash -25% dalam 10 hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb) terseret IHSG trading halt -8% + MSCI freeze FIF/NOS + grup Barito panic selling (BREN -28%), TAPI management + insider response WARRIOR MODE: buyback Rp1T aktif (4 Feb - 3 Mei, baru 1 minggu jalan) + Prajogo Pangestu (71,36% owner) borong 3,44M saham @ avg Rp2.788 pada 15-23 Jan = current Rp2.200 adalah -21% DISCOUNT to insider price. Net sell -966M hari ini, RSI 40.4 approaching oversold, MACD -259.90 extreme bearish, volume 160M panic—ini adalah CAPITULATION zone tapi belum complete. Fundamentals mixed: laba +116% YoY 2024 (Rp56M vs Rp26M) tapi revenue -13,5%, cash flow operations negatif -Rp110M. JP Morgan target Rp870 (+39,5%). Strategy: DON'T catch knife NOW—WAIT for net buying positive + volume >250M + daily close >Rp2.100 (stabilization confirmation). CONTRARIAN entry Rp1.970-2.100 IF capitulation complete dengan stop loss STRICT Rp1.970. This is 50% probability further flush vs 20% V-recovery = ODDS NOT in your favor yet. Buyback Rp1T adalah lifeline tapi need 2-4 weeks absorb selling. When insider buys at -21% premium to you AND buyback active, it's NOT value trap—it's TIMING trap. Patience wins. BRPT at Rp2.200 with Rp1T buyback + Prajogo @Rp2.788 = asymmetric setup IF you can stomach -10% more downside to Rp1.970. Cash is king until dust settles." ⏸️💎⚠️
⚠️ Disclaimer: Riset ini disusun oleh Algoritma StockBot berbasis data real-time 12 Februari 2026. BRPT berada dalam fase post-crash capitulation dengan risk/reward UNFAVORABLE for aggressive entry (50% further flush risk vs 20% V-recovery). This is knife falling with buyback gloves—buyback Rp1T (4 Feb - 3 Mei) providing floor Rp2.000-2.300 BUT need time (2-4 weeks) to absorb -966M net sell per day. Insider buying Prajogo @ Rp2.788 (15-23 Jan) vs current Rp2.200 = -21,1% discount, strong signal BUT timing early (bought before -25% crash). MSCI freeze FIF/NOS + IHSG trauma + petrochemical cycle weak = macro headwinds persist. Revenue -13,5% YoY + cash flow ops negative = fundamental concerns despite laba +116%. 50% probability retest Rp1.970-2.100 before sustainable recovery. ONLY contrarian trade at Rp1.970-2.100 with capitulation signals (volume >250M + net buy positive) with MAX 2-3% portfolio + SL strict Rp1.970. Keputusan investasi tetap di tangan Anda. DYOR (Do Your Own Research). When panic selling is -966M/day and RSI only 40.4 (not <30), knife still falling. Wait for blood in streets to dry before buying.
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