Educational only

📌 Understanding Long Wicks and the Probability of Price Filling
A long wick on a candlestick indicates that price moved aggressively to an extreme level but was rejected by the market before the candle closed. This wick area represents a temporary imbalance between buyers and sellers.
In technical analysis, price often shows a tendency to revisit the wick area, either partially (around 50%) or fully, in order to:
retest supply and demand strength
absorb remaining liquidity
confirm the next directional move
However, this tendency is probabilistic, not a certainty.

🔍 Scenarios of Wick Filling
1️⃣ Partial Fill (≈38,2% - 50%)
This is more likely when:
the market is in a clear trend
the wick represents a minor rejection
price only needs a healthy pullback before continuing the trend
The 38.2% - 50% wick level often acts as:
a pullback zone
a trend re-entry area
a short-term equilibrium level

2️⃣ Full Fill (100%)
A full wick fill is more likely when:
the market is sideways or consolidating
the wick forms without strong volume
there is no impulsive follow-through after the wick appears
In this case, the wick area often behaves as:
a price magnet
a liquidity zone
a structure validation area

⚠️ When a Wick Does Not Need to Be Filled

A long wick does not always need to be filled, especially when it:
appears during a strong breakout
is accompanied by high volume
forms on a higher timeframe (Daily / Weekly)
Under these conditions, the wick is better interpreted as a final rejection, not a retracement target.

🧠 Conclusion
A long wick marks an important reaction zone, not a guaranteed retrace
Price often fills the wick partially or fully, depending on:
market structure
trend strength
volume and timeframe
The best approach is to treat the wick as a reaction zone, not an obligation for price to return

Currently, it applies to stocks with large wicks, like $CTRA and $ACES, but not to ones like $BBCA.