$UNSP Walaupun masih di suspend, tapi masih tetap santai2 aja dengan posisi holding yg sdh lebih 350% unrealised profit. In the meantime, let's make a bit of sense to what is happening.

Let’s break it down cleanly and strategically.

1. What B35, B40, and B50 Actually Mean

These are biodiesel blending mandates issued by the Indonesian government.

B35
Fuel sold at the pump contains:
- 35% biodiesel (from palm oil / FAME)
- 65% fossil diesel

B40
Fuel contains:
- 40% biodiesel
- 60% fossil diesel

B50
Fuel contains:
- 50% biodiesel
- 50% fossil diesel

The higher the “B” number, the more palm oil Indonesia must use domestically.

2. What Regulation Triggers This?

Indonesia’s biodiesel policy is governed by:

Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No. 66/2018:
- Establishes the Mandatory Biodiesel Program
- Sets the framework for increasing blend levels over time.

Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (ESDM) Regulations:
- ESDM issues the technical implementation rules
- Determines when the blend increases (B30 → B35 → B40)

Key Milestones:
- B30 became mandatory in 2020.
- B35 became mandatory in February 2023.
- B40 is scheduled for rollout (ESDM has completed road tests and technical validation).
- B50 is under research and pilot testing.

The government’s long-term roadmap is B50 by 2027–2030.

3. Why Indonesia Pushes Higher Biodiesel Blends

Three strategic reasons:

A. Reduce reliance on imported diesel
Indonesia saves billions in foreign exchange.

B. Support palm oil prices
Domestic absorption stabilizes CPO prices during global downturns.

C. Support smallholder farmers
Higher demand → higher FFB prices → rural income support.

This is why biodiesel policy is politically important.

4. How Much Extra Palm Oil Does B40 or B50 Require?

Current B35 demand
Indonesia uses roughly 10.5–11 million kiloliters of biodiesel annually.

This requires:
- 9.5 million tons of CPO per year.

If Indonesia moves to B40
Demand increases by 1.5 million tons of CPO per year.

If Indonesia moves to B50
Demand increases by ~4–5 million tons of CPO per year.

This is *massive*.

To put it in perspective:
- Indonesia’s total CPO production is ~46–48 million tons.
- B50 alone would absorb 10% of national production.

This is why plantation stocks react strongly to biodiesel policy news.

5. What Does This Mean for UNSP?

UNSP (Bakrie Sumatera Plantations) benefits in three ways:

A. Higher Domestic CPO Demand
UNSP sells CPO and FFB.
When biodiesel demand rises:
- mills buy more
- CPO prices stabilize
- margins improve

Even weak companies benefit from sector-wide price support.

B. Higher FFB Prices for Smallholders
UNSP relies heavily on:
- plasma farmers
- smallholder supply

Higher biodiesel demand → higher FFB prices → better supply stability.

C. Speculative Rotation Into Plantation Stocks
IDX investors often buy:
- UNSP
- SSMS
- AALI
- LSIP

…whenever biodiesel policy is upgraded.

UNSP, being a low-base penny stock, reacts with the largest percentage moves.

This is likely part of the recent UNSP rally.

6. Balanced Analyst View

Short-term
UNSP benefits from:
- sector rotation
- biodiesel policy optimism
- rising CPO prices
- Bakrie group speculative flows

Medium-term
UNSP still has:
- weak fundamentals
- high debt
- inconsistent profitability

So the rally is sentiment-driven, not earnings-driven.

Long-term
If Indonesia reaches B40 → B50, the entire plantation sector gets:
- higher demand
- more stable pricing
- better margins

UNSP will benefit indirectly, even if it’s not the strongest operator.