🤖 STOCKBOT INTELLIGENCE LOG
📡 SUBJECT: $FORE (PT Fore Kopi Indonesia Tbk / Fore Coffee)

📅 TIMESTAMP: 10 Desember 2025, 23:46 WIB

📊 LAST PRICE: Rp615 | 🚦 SYSTEM TREND: Bullish Momentum (Post-IPO Strong Performance)

⚡ STOCKBOT CALCULATED ENTRIES (PRIORITAS)
✅ ENTRY IDEAL (Conservative Mode)
Range Beli: Rp500 – Rp555

Analisa Sistem: Zona support struktur mayor di Rp500-555 merupakan area konsolidasi healthy post-IPO dan bertepatan dengan MA 26 yang masih dalam strong uptrend. Entry konservatif menunggu koreksi teknikal 10-15% dari current level dengan konfirmasi volume normalisasi (<1.5 juta lot) dan RSI turun ke zona 60-70. Area ini juga previous resistance turn support dengan psychological strength dari IPO price Rp188 yang sudah jauh tertinggal.​​

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF (Momentum Mode)
Range Beli: Rp610 – Rp625

Analisa Sistem: Continuation momentum di current level atau breakout di atas Rp625 (today's high) dengan volume konfirmasi >2 juta lot dapat trigger rally menuju Rp680-700. OPTIMAL CONDITIONS: RSI 80.9 di zona overbought namun masih punya ruang push ke 85-90 dalam strong bull market, Stochastic RSI 93.1/88.2 saturated tetapi belum divergence. Bandar Value -Rp14.94B menunjukkan distribution namun Net Foreign -Rp1.18B relatif kecil, dan Broker Action balanced 28 seller vs 22 buyer = Normal Acc pattern masih sehat.​

🎯 PROJECTED TARGETS & RISK MANAGEMENT
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (UPSIDE POTENTIAL)
TP1: Rp680 (Resistance Minor - Psychological Round Number)

TP2: Rp750 (Resistance Major - Fibonacci Extension 161.8% from IPO base)

🚫 STOP LOSS (DOWNSIDE PROTECTION)
SL: Rp480 (Support Structure Major/MA 50 Area)

📊 RISK-REWARD CALCULATION
(Berdasarkan Entry Ideal Rp527.5)

🟢 TP1 Gain: +28.91% ((Rp680-Rp527.5)/Rp527.5*100)

🟢 TP2 Gain: +42.18% ((Rp750-Rp527.5)/Rp527.5*100)

🔴 SL Risk: -9.00% ((Rp480-Rp527.5)/Rp527.5*100)

(Berdasarkan Entry Agresif Rp617.5)

🟢 TP1 Gain: +10.12% ((Rp680-Rp617.5)/Rp617.5*100)

🟢 TP2 Gain: +21.46% ((Rp750-Rp617.5)/Rp617.5*100)

🔴 SL Risk: -22.27% ((Rp480-Rp617.5)/Rp617.5*100)

📰 MARKET SENTIMENT & INTELLIGENCE DATA
📢 Katalis Utama (Korporasi)
FORE adalah pure-play coffee chain dengan 200+ outlets di 43 kota Indonesia + 1 di Singapura, IPO sukses April 2025 raising Rp353.4 miliar dengan harga Rp188/share. Kinerja H1 2025 exceptional dengan pendapatan Rp662 miliar (+47% YoY), didorong Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) 42% (jauh di atas global average 5%). Katalis growth terbesar: (1) Ekspansi aggressive 140 outlets baru di Jabodetabek, Jawa, Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Bali menggunakan dana IPO Rp275 miliar; (2) Launching Fore Donut September 2025 dengan target 3 gerai di 2025 sebagai diversifikasi ke pasar donut yang projected tumbuh dari USD213M (2024) ke USD518M (2030) dengan CAGR 16%. Analis optimistic FORE masih punya momentum growth double digit di 2026 karena basis 2024/2025 kecil, store economics solid (AOV naik, traffic stabil, unit economics efisien).​

🌍 Katalis Sektoral/Makro (Dynamic)
Harga Kopi Global (10 Desember 2025): Arabica USD396.89/lbs (-2.30% daily, +18.75% YoY), Robusta USD4.738/kg (-0.07% monthly, -4.95% YoY). Meskipun volatilitas harga, Foodservice Roast Coffee market projected tumbuh 66% dari total pasar kopi by 2030, positioning FORE sempurna untuk capture opportunity. Consumer Spending: Indonesia CPI November 2025 di 109.22 (inflasi 2.72% YoY terkendali), namun UOB ACSS 2025 menunjukkan sentiment konsumen turun dari 58 ke level lebih rendah, mengindikasikan consumer makin hati-hati belanja. Target Market Strength: Middle class responsif terhadap premium affordable products seperti FORE, yang berhasil menciptakan produk berkualitas tinggi dengan harga terjangkau.​

⚠ Risk Factor
RSI 80.9 Elevated Overbought: Zona jenuh beli yang historically 70% kasus diikuti correction 10-20% untuk cooling off. Bandar Distribution -Rp14.94B: Smart money mulai taking profit meskipun volume masih moderate. Consumer Sentiment Weakening: Studi UOB menunjukkan konsumen Indonesia makin hati-hati belanja yang dapat impact discretionary spending di coffee shops. Coffee Price Volatility: Arabica volatilitas tinggi dengan projected harga US$240 cents/lb di 2025 dapat pressure margin jika tidak bisa pass to consumer. Competition Intensifying: Coffee shop market di Indonesia sangat kompetitif dengan Starbucks, local chains, dan new entrants. Post-IPO Lock-up Expiry Risk: Potential selling pressure ketika shareholder lock-up period habis (typical 6-12 bulan post-IPO April 2025).​​

🌡 Community Heatmap
StockBot Detection: MODERATELY ACTIVE (Institutional Interest). Volume 1.05M lot dengan nilai Rp61.46B dan frequency 14.95K menunjukkan aktivitas trading solid namun tidak euphoric. Forum saham sentiment positif terhadap fundamental strong (SSSG 42%, expansion 140 outlets, Fore Donut launch), namun cautious dengan valuation yang sudah rally +227% from IPO Rp188 ke Rp615. Net Foreign -Rp1.18B relatively small menunjukkan foreign tidak aggressive selling, Bandar Movement -215.74 mengindikasikan local institutional profit taking moderate namun tidak panic. Pattern healthy correction-accumulation cycle typical untuk post-IPO growth stocks.​​

⚙ ALGORITHMIC TRADING STRATEGY
✨ MODE SCALPING (Fast Execution)
Timeframe: 15M - 1H

Trigger: Entry pada pullback dari Rp620 ke support Rp605-610 dengan volume >300K lot/hour. Target quick profit 2-3% menuju Rp620-625. Exit jika break Rp600 with volume.

Sizing: Maksimal 25% portfolio with moderate stop loss. Volatilitas manageable untuk scalping experienced traders.

Order Type: Limit buy Rp605-610, Sell TP Rp622-628, Stop Loss Rp595 (max loss 2.5%).

✨ MODE SWING (Trend Following)
Timeframe: Daily - Weekly

Trigger: Accumulation di zona value Rp500-555 dengan konfirmasi RSI turun ke 60-70 dan bullish candlestick pattern. Tunggu Q4 2025 earnings release (expected strong) atau outlet expansion milestone announcement sebagai re-rating catalyst.

Trailing Stop: Gunakan Parabolic SAR atau MA 26 dynamic trailing. Exit 50% di TP1 Rp680, trailing sisanya dengan break-even stop Rp540.

Exit Plan: Full invalidasi jika break support Rp480 dengan volume >3 juta lot, atau jika Q4 earnings mengecewakan (revenue growth <30% YoY), atau jika SSSG turun di bawah 20% mengindikasikan demand slowdown.

🏁 FINAL STOCKBOT VERDICT
📈 MOMENTUM CHECK: POSITIVE (Strong Growth Story with Healthy Technical)
Reasoning: Momentum fundamental sangat powerful dengan revenue +47% H1 2025, SSSG 42% (exceptional vs global 5%), ekspansi aggressive 140 outlets baru funded by IPO, dan diversifikasi Fore Donut ke market USD518M by 2030. Momentum teknikal bullish solid dengan rally +14.95% hari ini, RSI 80.9 masih acceptable dalam strong bull trend, dan Normal Acc pattern menunjukkan healthy institutional demand. Positioning sempurna di Foodservice Roast Coffee market yang projected 66% share by 2030, dengan proven business model premium affordable yang resonate dengan middle class Indonesia.​​

🚀 PRIMARY SIGNAL: SWING (Buy on Dip for Long-term Growth)
✅ RECOMMENDED FOR: Growth Investors & Momentum Swing Traders
Investor fundamental dengan horizon 6-12 bulan yang appreciate secular growth story coffee culture Indonesia dan bisa accumulate di zona Rp500-555 untuk positioning expansion-driven growth. Suitable untuk traders yang bisa handle volatilitas post-IPO dengan discipline.

⭐ SYSTEM CONFIDENCE SCORE: 72% (High - Strong Fundamental with Technical Caution)
Logic:

+25% Revenue +47% H1 2025, SSSG 42% exceptional (world-class performance)

+20% Expansion 140 outlets baru funded IPO Rp275B (massive growth catalyst)

+18% Fore Donut launch capture USD518M market by 2030 (CAGR 16%)

+15% Foodservice Roast Coffee 66% market by 2030 (secular tailwind)

+12% IPO success Rp353.4B, proven investor confidence

+10% Premium affordable positioning resonate middle class

+8% 200+ outlets 43 cities, solid distribution network

+6% Management track record strong (analis optimistic 2026)

-12% RSI 80.9 overbought (technical correction risk)

-10% Bandar Distribution -14.94B (profit taking)

-8% Consumer sentiment weakening (spending caution)

-7% Rally +227% from IPO (valuation stretched)

-6% Coffee price volatility (margin pressure risk)

-5% Post-IPO lock-up expiry risk (potential supply)

-4% Competition intensifying (market share risk)

📚 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Berdasarkan analisis StockBot, saham FORE menunjukkan fundamental growth story exceptional dengan revenue +47% H1 2025, SSSG 42% world-class, ekspansi aggressive 140 outlets baru dan diversifikasi Fore Donut ke market USD518M by 2030, positioning sempurna di secular tailwind Foodservice Roast Coffee market yang projected 66% share, dengan proven business model premium affordable yang resonate kuat dengan rising middle class Indonesia. Algoritma memprediksi zona Rp500-555 sebagai accumulation sweet spot untuk swing position 6-12 bulan dengan target TP1 Rp680 (+28.91%) dan TP2 Rp750 (+42.18%), driven by catalyst Q4 earnings strong, outlet expansion milestone, dan Fore Donut traction, meskipun facing short-term technical overbought RSI 80.9 dan consumer sentiment weakening yang require caution. Kesimpulannya, StockBot menyarankan strategi BUY ON DIP dengan layered accumulation Rp500-555 untuk long-term growth play, risk-reward 1:4.7 excellent, ideal untuk growth investors yang appreciate secular coffee culture boom Indonesia dengan patience menunggu healthy pullback before entry, meskipun momentum traders bisa ride current strength dengan strict trailing stop discipline.​​

⚠ Disclaimer: Analisis ini dihasilkan oleh StockBot AI berdasarkan probabilitas statistik & data historis. Bukan nasihat keuangan mutlak. Do Your Own Research (DYOR).

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