🤖 STOCKBOT INTELLIGENCE LOG
📡 SUBJECT: $SGER

📅 TIMESTAMP: 23 November 2025, 22:04 WIB
📊 LAST PRICE: Rp440 | 🚦 SYSTEM TREND: Bearish Correction Attempt Support

⚡ STOCKBOT CALCULATED ENTRIES (PRIORITAS):

✅ ENTRY IDEAL (Conservative Mode)
Range Beli: Rp430 – Rp440
Analisa Sistem: Support MA21 daily & supply demand block, harga mendekati area demand EMA mingguan, RSI harian rendah (44), Stoch daily menuju oversold, tanda potensi pantulan teknikal setelah penurunan terus-menerus; volume konsolidasi mulai meningkat.​
🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF (Momentum Mode)
Range Beli: Rp441 – Rp454
Analisa Sistem: Buy on spike breakout 15m/1H, trigger candle valid pada volume >2x rata-rata, momentum konfirmasi jika berhasil break 460, risiko gagal reversal jika penembusan support 426.

🎯 PROJECTED TARGETS & RISK MANAGEMENT:

🔥 TAKE PROFIT (UPSIDE POTENTIAL)
TP1: Rp477 (Minor Resistance supply Fibonacci retrace)
TP2: Rp489 (Major Resistance high daily/weekly)
🚫 STOP LOSS (DOWNSIDE PROTECTION)
SL: Rp403 (Daily/ATR multi support bottom)
📊 RISK-REWARD CALCULATION (Berdasarkan Entry Ideal Rp435)
🟢 TP1 Gain: +9.66% ((477-435)/435100)
🟢 TP2 Gain: +12.41% ((489-435)/435100)
🔴 SL Risk: -7.36% ((403-435)/435*100)
(Berdasarkan Entry Agresif Rp448)
🟢 TP1 Gain: +6.47%
🟢 TP2 Gain: +9.15%
🔴 SL Risk: -10.04%

📰 MARKET SENTIMENT & INTELLIGENCE DATA:

📢 Katalis Utama (Korporasi): SGER telah menyelesaikan obligasi Rp283,1M sebagai penguatan modal kerja, target diversifikasi dari ekspor batubara (90% revenue ekspor, sisa domestik) ke mineral & EBT, terus optimasi kontrak baru ekspor ke China/Vietnam/Bangladesh. Fundamental: Pendapatan 2024: Rp14,76T, Net profit: Rp658,7M (TTM), dividen yield 1,8%; 2025 ekspansi smelter nikel & EBT tetap dilanjutkan.​
🌍 Katalis Sektoral/Makro (Dynamic): Harga batubara batangan Newcastle range USD104–111/ton (stabil rendah akhir November), sektor batubara nasional masih oversupply, ekspor Asia didukung China restocking, namun harga risk global tetap downside.
⚠️ Risk Factor: Risiko tekanan harga global, restriksi China/Vietnam pada kontrak ekspor, sentimen bearish batubara masih dominan Q4–Q1, sensitivitas bottom jika demand Asia turun.
🌡 Community Heatmap: StockBot deteksi: Ramai forum fokus bottom-picking & swing, diskusi sentimen reversal, arus dana belum dominan, wait & see mode.

⚙️ ALGORITHMIC TRADING STRATEGY:

✨ MODE SCALPING (Fast Execution)
Timeframe: 5-Min/15-Min
Trigger: Breakout 450 dengan volume spike, sizing mini <1,5% portofolio, SL fast di bawah candle trigger, TP di 470–477.
Order Type: Market/trailing ATR mini; scaling out jika breakout gagal.
✨ MODE SWING (Trend Following)
Timeframe: Daily/Weekly
Trigger: Buy on Weakness area demand block 430–440, trailing stop ATR/EMA, scaling in kecil bertahap jika reversal valid, exit jika closing <403 atau terjadi distribusi abnormal.
Trailing Stop: ATR daily & supply structure trailing.
Exit Plan: Tutup jika support Major 426–403 gagal hold, atau news ekspor batubara turun signifikan.

🏁 FINAL STOCKBOT VERDICT:
📈 MOMENTUM CHECK: NEGATIVE REVERSAL BIAS
Reasoning: Harga batubara tertekan global, tapi support teknikal kuat di area daily/weekly, fundamental masih tumbuh, ekspor dominasi revenue, risk reversal terbuka dengan disiplin trailing stop.
🚀 PRIMARY SIGNAL: SWING WAIT ✅ RECOMMENDED FOR: Bottom-picker, tactical swing risk
⭐ SYSTEM CONFIDENCE SCORE: 66%
Logic: +Support major kuat, +Pendapatan triliunan, +Diversifikasi ekspor, -Bearish sektor batubara, -Volatilitas tinggi, +Forum diskusi reversal
📚 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY "Berdasarkan analisis StockBot, SGER berada dekat area bottom support kuat, prospek reversal terbuka jika volume dan trigger breakout konfirmasi. Algoritma fokus pada risk trailing, dengan strategi entry konservatif di demand block dan scaling mini saat reversal valid. Kesimpulannya, StockBot merekomendasikan swing bottom entry hanya untuk profil risk-taker dengan money management ketat, sambil memantau perkembangan tren harga batubara & ekspor Asia."
⚠️ Disclaimer: Analisis ini dihasilkan oleh StockBot AI berdasarkan probabilitas statistik & data historis. Bukan nasihat keuangan mutlak. Do Your Own Research (DYOR).

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