INSTITUTIONAL ANALYST REPORT
$FPNI vs $TPIA
Post-LCI Operational Era (2026 Outlook)
Pre - CAP2 TPIA

1. Executive Summary

FPNI (PT Lotte Chemical Titan Indonesia) is entering a structural earnings expansion phase driven by the launch of Lotte Chemical Indonesia (LCI).
For the first time, FPNI’s effective integrated capacity approaches the scale of Indonesia’s market leader, TPIA (Chandra Asri).
Despite this, FPNI trades 1.5–2.1X forward PER, versus TPIA at 20–60×.
This report presents a full comparison, focusing on valuation, capacity, profitability, and strategic positioning.

2. Industry Overview

Indonesia’s petrochemical sector remains undersupplied, importing >1.5M tons of polymers annually.
Domestic demand is growing due to manufacturing expansion, EV automotive investment, packaging sectors, and downstream industrialization.

Both TPIA and FPNI stand to benefit, but the market undervalues FPNI despite near-equal capacity post-LCI.

3. Capacity Comparison (2026F)

#FPNI + LCI (Lotte Group)
Ethylene:1.0M Tons
PE/PP: 1.1–1.2M tons
Total Integrated: 2.0–2.2M tons

#TPIA (Chandra Asri)
Ethylene: 1,0 - 1.3M tons
PE/PP: 1,1 Tons
Total Integrated: 2.2–2.7M tons

Capacity Ratio

FPNI = 75–95% of TPIA total capacity
FPNI slightly exceeds TPIA in PE/PP volume

4. Financial Metrics (2026F)

#FPNI
Revenue: 8.1–8.3T
EBITDA: 2.9–3.0T
Net Income: 1.6–1.8T
EPS: 300–410
ROE: 22–27%
Net Margin: 20–26%

#TPIA
Revenue: Significantly higher but spreads lower
EBITDA Margin: 10–18%
ROE: 5–9%
More sensitive to naphtha cycles

Conclusion:
FPNI outperforms on profitability and efficiency metrics.

5. Valuation Comparison

#FPNI
Forward PER: 1.5–2.1x
EV/EBITDA: 1–2x
Market Cap: Deep discount vs capacity
Free Float: 7.5% → high price elasticity

#TPIA
Forward PER: 20–60X ( premium multiple)
EV/EBITDA: 10–20x
Market Cap: 600T

Interpretation
The market prices TPIA as a mature petrochemical leader while FPNI remains valued as a distressed cyclical, despite having comparable scale.

6. Strategic Analysis

#FPNI Advantages
Fully integrated feedstock via LCI
Modern plant technology and lower operating cost
Automotive-grade resin potential (EV demand growth)
High operational leverage
Lotte global R&D support

#TPIA Advantages
Strong legacy ecosystem
Wide customer base
Elastomer + aromatics value chain

Conclusion:

FPNI gains structural uplift
TPIA retains diversification advantage.

7. Turnaround Thesis: FPNI

The turnaround is driven by:
1. Normalization of plant utilization
2. Stable supply chain from LCI
3. Margin expansion from improved spreads
4. Lower reliance on external feedstock
5. Recurring related-party revenue

This improves earnings quality and reduces volatility.

8. Risk Assessment

Key Risks for FPNI
Petrochemical cycle volatility
Group allocation changes (related-party sales)
Low float → higher volatility
Commodity pricing risks

Key Risks for TPIA
High CAPEX requirements
Slower earnings growth due to scale
Spread compression risk

9. Valuation Scenarios (FPNI)
Base Case: EPS 300; PER 12× → 3,600 target
Bull Case: EPS 410; PER 20× → 8,200 target
Ultra Bull (Equal to TPIA multiple): PER 28× → 11,480 target


FPNI holds one of the strongest re-rating potentials in IDX

10. Final Conclusion 😎

FPNI’s valuation is disconnected from its fundamental trajectory.
With scale approaching TPIA and margins surpassing peers, FPNI represents the largest mispricing in Indonesia’s petrochemical sector.
The stock offers asymmetric upside driven by structural improvements and operational integration with LCI.

Strong Buy
Rationale: deep value, structural catalyst, high ROE, capacity at par with TPIA, and EV-fueled demand growth.

Disclaimer On
DYOR 🔬
This is not an investment Advice ✅
Rantag $ESSA

"La haula Walakuata illabillah"