$BUVA

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF

✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp860–Rp890
(Alasan teknikal singkat: Support EMA21/50 daily, zona pullback pasca koreksi dari ATH 935, akumulasi institusi Happy Hapsoro, volume demand stabil, pola HH-HL bullish masih intact, rights issue momentum ex-date 4 Nov selesai.)​

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp900–Rp920
(Alasan teknikal, risiko, kondisi konfirmasi yang dibutuhkan: Entry harga sekarang/agresif usai rally +1.410% YTD & rights issue period. Risiko volatilitas tinggi post-rights issue, RSI overbought 63, Stoch RSI 94. Konfirmasi wajib: candle bullish reversal 1H/daily + volume >10K lot, hindari entry tanpa konfirmasi karena risk whipsaw & profit taking institusi.)​

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)

🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):

TP1: Rp1.000
(Alasan singkat: Resistance minor psikologis 1.000, zona distribusi cepat pasca ATH Oktober, target scalping retail FOMO.)​

TP2: Rp1.130
(Alasan singkat: Resistance krusial mendekati ATH Oktober 2025 (peak 1.130), supply zone & peak swing terakhir, target swing bullish jika momentum pariwisata lanjut.)​

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):

SL: Rp840
(Alasan: Struktur swing low support EMA50/100, buffer ATR(14) ~11.8, SL ditempatkan 2x ATR di bawah entry ideal; cutloss wajib jika breakdown momentum atau gap negatif post-rights issue adjustment.)​

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE

Dari Entry Ideal (Rp875):

TP1: +14.3% ((1.000–875)/875100)
TP2: +29.1% ((1.130–875)/875100)
SL : -4.0% ((875–840)/875*100)

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp910):

TP1: +9.9% ((1.000–910)/910100)
TP2: +24.2% ((1.130–910)/910100)
SL : -7.7% ((910–840)/910*100)

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR

Fundamental & Katalis:

Kinerja Q3 2025 solid: revenue Rp288,70M (+6,1% YoY), laba bersih Rp108,58M (+661,7% YoY), margin meningkat signifikan didorong pemulihan pariwisata nasional—wisatawan mancanegara 11,43 juta (Jan-Sep 2025), +10,22% YoY.​

Rights issue untuk akuisisi aset properti/villa baru di destinasi wisata unggulan (ex-date 4 Nov 2025 selesai), katalis ekspansi jangka menengah-panjang mengikuti target pemerintah 14–16 juta wisatawan 2025.​

Akumulasi besar Happy Hapsoro & institusi, rally +1.410% YTD (ATH 935 Oktober 2025), sentimen sangat kuat.​

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Post-rights issue harga perlu adjustment teoritis, volatilitas tinggi ATR 11.8, RSI overbought 63-75, Stoch RSI 94—risk profit taking & koreksi tajam sangat besar, terutama jika gagal bertahan di atas 860.​

Valuasi sudah tinggi, spekulatif momentum pariwisata, jika target wisatawan meleset atau ada shock ekonomi global, risk koreksi dalam.​

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Retail & institusi FOMO tinggi, volume masif 13K lot avg, diskusi forum ramai "Hapsoro play & pariwisata boom". Heatmap bid tebal 880–920, institusi mulai scaling out di resistance 1.000–1.130; mayoritas trader swing spekulatif news-driven & rights issue arbitrage.​

(Indikator utama & interpretasi: EMA9>EMA21>EMA50>EMA100 (bullish kuat), RSI(14) daily 63-75 (overbought), Stoch RSI 70-94 (overbought ekstrem), MACD(12,26,9) bullish histogram 16-26, OBV naik tajam, ATR(14)=11.8 (volatilitas tinggi), ADX(14)=43 (trend sangat kuat), BB expanding, VPVR HVN di 880–920.)

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m, 15m (utama scalping momentum pariwisata)

Rules entry: Buy on pullback 860–890 + candle bullish reversal atau breakout >920 volume spike >10K lot. TP cepat 970–1.000, SL <840.

TP/SL & sizing: Batch 1 40% TP1, batch 2 30% trailing EMA9–15m, sisanya scaling TP2/exit breakdown.

Contoh order: Limit buy 875, stop buy 925, trailing/scaling sell resistance.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: Daily/1H

Rules entry & scaling in: Entry batch kecil retrace 860–890, scaling up jika close >950 + volume institusi, scaling out TP area 1.000–1.130.

Trailing stop method: ATR(14)/close <840.

Exit plan: scaling profit di TP atau breakdown/news negatif pariwisata.

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Ada momentum naik—trend bullish sangat kuat, Happy Hapsoro akumulasi, pemulihan pariwisata solid, rights issue ekspansi. Namun risk profit taking/overbought ekstrem sangat besar.

SINYAL:

🚀 Sinyal (Scalping/Swing): BUY on WEAKNESS pullback 860–890 atau breakout lanjut >920+volume spike. Signal valid jika MA bullish alignment, candle reversal, dan volume >10K lot.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping & swing agresif pariwisata/Hapsoro play—tidak cocok untuk hold lama tanpa scaling karena volatilitas & overbought ekstrem.

✨ Confident:

Nilai confidence: 73%.

Faktor: Fundamental Q3 kuat, pemulihan pariwisata solid, akumulasi Hapsoro, rights issue ekspansi, trend bullish kuat; namun risk overbought ekstrem, volatilitas tinggi, profit taking institusi, valuasi spekulatif.

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA(9/21/50/100/200), VWAP, MACD(12,26,9), RSI(14), Stoch RSI, ATR(14), OBV, ADX(14), VPVR (880–920), BB(20,2), CCI(14).

📚 RINGKASAN – [12 Nov 2025]
BUVA rally masif +1.410% YTD dengan fundamental Q3 solid dan pemulihan pariwisata nasional, struktur bullish sangat kuat post-rights issue. Entry terbaik buy pullback/support dengan disiplin TP/SL ketat mengingat overbought ekstrem & risk profit taking sangat besar.

DISCLAIMER:
Bukan nasihat keuangan. Selalu gunakan manajemen risiko, position sizing, dan dis disiplin TP/SL.

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