$MAPA

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF

✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp750–Rp765
(Alasan teknikal singkat: support EMA9/21/50 (751/718/679), pola base HH konsolidasi 4–6 hari, candle bullish continuation, volume harian & OBV >40K, RSI 70,3 berlanjut, Stoch RSI 72,8 mendukung swing bullish, orderbook bid kuat 39K lot area 755–765.)​

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp770–Rp785
(Alasan teknikal, risiko, kondisi konfirmasi yang dibutuhkan: break all-time high, momentum strong continuation setelah rally >10 hari beruntun, risiko overbought RSI 70 jika pullback di rejection 790–800, entry valid jika close 15m >785 & volume spike >150K, candle bullish engulfing required.)

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)

🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):

TP1: Rp820
(Alasan singkat: resist minor supply high hingga histori, TP scalping pada all-time high breakout psikologis, VPVR HVN up area, fast swing retail.)

TP2: Rp860
(Alasan singkat: resist utama psikologis/target all-time high swing top, TP optimal jika Q4/outlook akhir tahun konsumsi musim tutup buku/rebound ritel.)

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):

SL: Rp730
(ALASAN: support MA50 + base swing minor, ATR(14) ~18, buffer ~25 pt di bawah entry ideal, antisipasi rejection pullback bila volume drop tajam.)

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE

Dari Entry Ideal (Rp758):

TP1: +8.18% ((820-758)/758100)
TP2: +13.44% ((860-758)/758100)
SL : -3.70% ((730-758)/758*100)

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp778):

TP1: +5.40%
TP2: +10.54%
SL : -6.16%

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR

Fundamental & Katalis:

Q3 2025 MAPA membukukan laba bersih Rp1,16T naik 5,5% YoY, revenue Rp5,2T (+13,6% YoY), gross profit +12,3%, laba usaha naik 10,9% ke Rp726M, EBITDA naik 15,1% ke Rp2,1T.​

Konsensus JP Morgan & analis domestik “overweight”, proyeksi pertumbuhan H2 tinggi driven seasonal demand akhir tahun, manajemen konsolidasi toko & efisiensi biaya, pipeline Foot Locker mulai generate sales.​

Kinerja kuat ditopang pertumbuhan volume ritel “Back-to-School”, Hari Kemerdekaan, inventori mulai turun, manajemen normalisasi stock, net margin stabil di atas 6,5%, proyeksi Q4 rebound. SSSG masih moderat, laba usaha dan pendapatan didukung digital ritel..​

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

SSSG 2Q25 sempat negatif, rasio inventori masih relatif tinggi (>190 hari); risiko distribusi profit-taking jika gagal breakout 800/825.​

Margin gross bisa turun di Q4 jika diskon/promosi besar, spread makin lebar jika retail selling di puncak, risiko berita konsolidasi belum 100% diseluruh jaringan.​

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Forum Stockbit, TradingView sangat bullish, “breakout 800 swing hold ke 860-900”, heatmap bid kuat, retail aktif entry di 770–785. Volume retail tinggi 372K lot, orderbook bid naik, konsensus fast swing up ke 800–820 dalam 2 minggu.​​

Konsensus analis institusi maintain buy/hold, target konsensus 820–900 sampai Q4.​

🔥 TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama: 15m & Daily

5m: Bullish continuation >775, volume >60K, trailing support EMA9/21, momentum masih valid, pola candle hijau dominan.

15m: Sideways bullish uptrend, Stoch RSI 72,8 OB, EMA9 cross up support, RSI 70.3 strong, orderbook bid 39K volume.

Daily: Struktur HH/HL kuat, EMA9>EMA21>MA50, RSI 70 OB namun pattern continuation, OVB naik, Accum/Dist tren naik, VPVR HVN all-time high di 820–860.

Indikator: EMA9/21/50 bullish, RSI 70.3, Stoch RSI 72.8, ATR ~18, OBV/Accum naik, BB(20,2) trending upper, VPVR uptrend.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m/15m

Aturan entry: pullback ideal 750–765 candle reversal hijau+volume >50K, TP1 820 batch1 (50%), TP2 860 trailing EMA9 batch2, SL limit 730.

Agresif: breakout close >785 + vol >150K, scaling all-in, trailing SL EMA9 15m, batch exit jika rejection candle merah dua sesi.

Termasuk scale-in di batch setiap breakout >800/vol up.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: Daily/4H

Batch1 35% pullback EMA9/21 & base, batch2 30% breakout >785 vol >150K, trailing ATR-based 1.3x, exit TP1 820/TP2 860, scaling up jika Q4 digital ritel/FootLocker outperform.

Exit jika candle harian top reversal 2 sesi berturut/trailing EMA breakdown.

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Ada momentum untuk naik? Ya, struktur HH/HL + EMA bullish, volume ritel/opini analis positif, Q3 profit naik +13,6% YoY, sentimen retail/institusi mendukung swing breakout.

SINYAL:

🚀 Sinyal (Scalping/Swing): Bullish breakout EMA9/21, trigger candle hijau vol >100K, trailing stop EMA9, scaling up bertahap tiap level breakout, all-time high target TP.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping & Swing (momentum continuation, sentimen news & technical breakout).

✨ Confident:
82% (indikator EMA bull, OBV stabil, Q3 profit growth, pattern continuation high, downside -18% jika heavy profit-taking fail breakout, news Q4 risk.)

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:
15m & Daily

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:
EMA9/21/50/100, RSI14, Stoch RSI, ATR14, OBV, BB(20,2), VPVR.

📚 RINGKASAN – [11 Nov 2025]
MAPA bullish continuation, HH/HL EMA uptrend, Q3 profit tumbuh 13,6%, retail sentiment + konsensus swing up, entry ideal 750–765 TP1 820, TP2 860, confident 82%, scalping swing momentum.

DISCLAIMER:
Bukan nasihat keuangan. Selalu gunakan manajemen risiko, position sizing, dan disiplinisiplin TP/SL.

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