$HMSP

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF
✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp895–Rp910
(Alasan teknikal singkat: Support MA21, EMA9 daily, konfirmasi candle bullish 3-bar hingga volume orderflow naik di base range; price bertahan di atas MA utama, struktur HH/HL konsisten, BBands ikut mengarah uptrend.)​​

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp915–Rp925
(Alasan teknikal: Entry di atas resisten minor BBands upper dan swing pivot high harian; risiko false breakout tinggi tanpa konfirmasi candle hijau >2 bar dan volume spike, hindari jika bid-offer lebar.)​​

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: Rp960
(Alasan singkat: Resistance volume cluster dan pivot upper BBands, top area orderbook dan distribusi heavy ritel di offer book.)​​

TP2: Rp1.040
(Alasan singkat: Supply zone weekly, volume profile HVN, target upper BBands dan swing high September 2025.)​

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):
SL: Rp885
(Alasan: ATR(14) sekitar 8, SL = Entry Ideal - ATR = 895–8=887; diambil pada support MA50, cluster demand intraday.)​​

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE
Dari Entry Ideal (Rp902):
TP1: +(960-902)/902100 = +6.43%
TP2: +(1.040-902)/902100 = +15.28%
SL : -(902-885)/902*100 = -1.89%

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp920):
TP1: +(960-920)/920100 = +4.34%
TP2: +(1.040-920)/920100 = +13.04%
SL : -(920-885)/920*100 = -3.80%

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis:

Laba bersih Q3-2025 Rp4,51 triliun, turun 13,6% YoY, penjualan net juga -5,34% YoY Rp83,74 triliun, namun penjualan produk tanpa asap meningkat 49% dan gross margin stabil.​

Katalis makro: proyeksi revenue 2026 sektor tembakau Indonesia +9.1%, HMSP diperkirakan tumbuh +7.9% EPS; dampak kebijakan cukai tidak lagi mencekik.​

Cash flow tetap sehat dan ekuitas tinggi, HMSP investasi Rp500 miliar di Patriot Bond sebagai aksi korporasi ESG bond.​

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Downtrend gross profit dan penjualan utama SKM, SKT, SPM, bearish pada volume ritel jika volume tidak sustain; aksi profit-taking sering di pivot high.​

Komunitas ritel heatmap mixed, institusi wait & see, switching reaktif pada harga psikologis.​

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Forum ritel ramai bottom entry, heatmap mixed scalping dan scaling, bid-offer book tebal high demand, volume naik di area konsolidasi.​

🔥 TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama yang dianalisa: 15m & Daily

5m: Uptrend micro di base, candle bullish berturut, volume bid naik pagi, valid untuk scalping entry TP1.

15m: Konsolidasi di base MA21/EMA9, RSI/Stoch RSI overbought, volume naik perlahan, aksi scaling aktif.

Daily: Struktur HH/HL uptrend, EMA9>EMA21, RSI14 = 70.3 (overbought strong), MACD bullish, OBV naik, BBands open up, VPVR HVN di 910–960.
(Indikator utama: EMA9/21/50, SMA100/200, RSI14, ATR14, MACD, BBands, VPVR, Stoch RSI.)

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m–15m

Rules entry: Candle bullish >2 bar, volume naik di area base, exit quick TP1 batch, trailing ketat ATR.

TP/SL & sizing: batch 1=50% TP1, batch 2=30%, scaling drag trailing.

Contoh order: limit area 902–910, exit scaling batch TP1.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: Daily–Weekly

Rules entry & scaling in: Batch kecil di base EMA9/MA21, scaling closing di atas pivot swing 925, trailing ATR atau sell candle merah reversal.

Exit: TP1 batch scaling, TP2 stagger, trailing SL di volume breakdown.

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Momentum naik, didukung all bullish indikator uptrend dan katalis revenue projected; risiko pada aksi profit-taking di resistance dan switching volume.

SINYAL:
🚀 Sinyal (Scalping / Swing): Scalping: Entry base bullish, scaling exit TP1, trailing rapid ATR. Swing: batch entry scaling breakout closing, trailing SL ATR dan sell breakdown pattern.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping & swing aktif — rekomendasi untuk trader trend following, TP/SL wajib disiplin.

✨ Confident:

Confidence 83% — didukung uptrend, indikator bullish, volume orderflow naik, fundamental prospek positif makro; risk switching tetap perlu antisipasi.

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:

15m & Daily

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA9/21/50, SMA100/200, RSI14, ATR14, MACD(12,26,9), VWAP, OBV, VPVR, BBands, Stoch RSI.

📚 RINGKASAN – [05 Nov 2025]
HMSP uptrend kuat dan all time high volume di base EMA, didukung katalis revenue/tarif cukai serta respons positif komunitas, TP1/TP2 valid, rekomendasi scalping/swing scaling, trailing SL wajib.​​

DISCLAIMER:
Bukan nasihat keuangan. Selalu gunakan manajemen risiko, position sizing, dan disiplin TP/SL.

$CHEM $TALF