$EMTK

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF
✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp1.190–Rp1.220
(Alasan teknikal singkat: Area support EMA9/21 dan MA14 daily, sideways bottoming, candle bullish kecil & doji reversal di range bawah, support EMA daily valid, volume bertahan di bawah, Stoch RSI dan RSI mulai rebound, pressure selling melandai).​​

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp1.220–Rp1.250
(Alasan teknikal: Entry agresif di atas breakout EMA9/21, risiko fake break tinggi, perlu candle hijau & volume >30% rata-rata, konfirmasi trading aktif pagi/hari Senin. Cocok scalping momentum & follow breakout, validasi spread dan bandarmology 5m/15m.)​​

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: Rp1.265
(Alasan singkat: Upper BB & pivot minor distribusi mini, area swing short-term, valid target swing I jika candle hijau break & volume break-hour.)​​

TP2: Rp1.320
(Alasan singkat: Weekly EMA50/pivot upper & distribusi besar sebelum breakout besar Oktober, valid untuk target swing medium.)​

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):
SL: Rp1.150
(Alasan: ATR ±40, di bawah support MA50/BB middle & pivot doji, SL = Entry – ATR, proteksi fake breakdown retest doji support.)​​

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE
Dari Entry Ideal (Rp1.205):
TP1: +5.0% (hitung: (1,265-1,205)/1,205100)
TP2: +9.5% (hitung: (1,320-1,205)/1,205100)
SL : -4.6% (hitung: (1,205-1,150)/1,205*100)

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp1.235):
TP1: +2.4% (hitung: (1,265-1,235)/1,235100)
TP2: +6.9% (hitung: (1,320-1,235)/1,235100)
SL : -6.9% (hitung: (1,235-1,150)/1,235*100)

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis:

Laba bersih Q3 2025 melonjak 1.361% YoY ke Rp6,43 triliun (naik signifikan akibat efek one-off gain); revenue naik 65% YoY ke Rp8,80 triliun, profitabilitas didorong sektor digital, akuisisi SCMA, pipeline Superbank IPO, valuasi fundamental PBV 2,2x di bawah peer rata-rata.​

Akuisisi mayoritas SCMA (naik jadi 79,04%) sebagai katalis inti, prospek IPO Superbank Q4 2025 dan ekspansi digital business ecosystem.​

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Laba one-off, tekanan nett sell asing sebulan terakhir (Rp56 miliar), risk profit taking setelah news rally & IPO rumor; spread lebar setelah swing, need volume break untuk naik kuat.​

Sentimen digital/globals risk: tech selloff cepat jika profit taking institusi global terjadi pada waktu bersamaan.​

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Forum retail swing, heatmap scalping batch bawah aktif, scaling batch kecil valid, dominasi buy on weakness; institutional wait & see post-news, consensus target swing 1.320–1.400.​

🔥 TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama yang dianalisa: Daily & 15m

5m: Sideways base, candle kecil, volume scaling batch, trigger awal breakout.

15m: Range 1,190–1,220, volume tipis, bullish mulai muncul pada candle hijau.

Daily: Konsolidasi bottom EMA14/21, EMA9~EMA21, RSI 46.6, Stoch RSI 51.9 (rebound), MACD flat, OBV stabil, ATR ±40, BB sempit doji, VPVR HVN 1.265, CCI 51.9, ADX flat.​​

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m/15m.

Rules entry: Konfirmasi candle hijau breakout support EMA/MA, batch limit/buy on break, exit setelah gagal break/whipsaw.

TP/SL & sizing: Batch 1 = 40% target TP1, batch 2 = 30%, trailing 30% jika break 1.265.

Contoh order: Limit pullback base, Stop Market SL ATR, trailing >4% gain.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: Daily/H4.

Rules entry & scaling in: Entry batch kecil konsolidasi EMA14/21, scaling breakout dan volume close di atas 1.250, scaling batch pada swing pivot.

Trailing stop: ATR(+40), exit batch TP1/TP2, trailing break SL candle merah/high volume outflow.

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Ada momentum naik short-medium di area base support, indikator mulai rebound, support EMA kuat, news IPO Superbank & hasil Q3 jadi katalis, tetap butuh volume konfirmasi untuk rally sustain.

SINYAL:
🚀 Sinyal (Scalping/Swing):

Scalping: Buy batch di base EMA/MA, TP1 5%, TP2 9.5%, SL ATR; trigger candle hijau dan volume.

Swing: Entry batch kecil konsolidasi, scaling on breakout, trailing ATR, exit TP1/TP2; trigger EMA/MA cross dan IPO news.

Trigger: EMA cross up, volume breakout, candle doji reversal, RSI & Stoch RSI naik.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping & Swing — batch kecil, momentum basis EMA/volume, risk profit taking cepat/whipsaw news.

✨ Confident:

Nilai confidence: 78%

Faktor utama: Fundamental Q3 bagus, area base EMA kuat, sentimen IPO + akuisisi, risk volume belum penuh, fundamental one-off.

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:

Daily & 15m (bottom reversal & scaling breakout scalping/swing)

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA9/21, MA14/50, ATR14, MACD(12,26,9), RSI14, Stoch RSI, OBV, Bollinger Bands(20,2), VPVR, CCI(14), ADX(14)

Alasan: Base support valid, signal rebound/EMA cross, risk control, distribusi map.

📚 RINGKASAN – [04 Nov 2025]
EMTK rebound setelah Q3 laba melonjak 1.361% dan katalis corporate action besar; base area 1.190–1.220 valid entry, prefer batch kecil, scaling di breakout, disiplin TP/SL — risk volume/whipsaw tetap besar pasca news rally.

DISCLAIMER:
Bukan nasihat keuangan. Selalu gunakan manajemen risiko, position sizing, dan disiplindan disiplin TP/SL.

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