$CMRY

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF
✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp5,275–Rp5,400
(Alasan teknikal singkat: support EMA21/SMA20 daily, base konsolidasi volume dan candle bullish continuation, pola HH-HL; volume spike pada breakout pola flag dan BB squeeze)​​

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp5,400–Rp5,475
(Alasan teknikal: follow momentum breakout EMA9 dan BB upper H1-daily, risiko false breakout di supply, konfirmasi volume >100k dan Stoch RSI >55 diperlukan untuk entry valid)​​

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: Rp5,650
(Alasan singkat: pivot resistance BB upper/VPVR HVN, zona distribusi spike swing intraday/daily, serta potensi push pasca dividen interim)​​

TP2: Rp5,800
(Alasan singkat: supply zone BB upper weekly, area distribusi all-time high monthly, VPVR HVN top dan range akumulasi asing/retail besar)​​

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):
SL: Rp5,125
(Alasan: base support struktur weekly dan ATR(14)~90; SL=Entry Ideal-ATR=5,275–90=5,185, dibulatkan Rp5,125 untuk mengantisipasi whipsaw pada noise volatility)​​

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE
Dari Entry Ideal (Rp5,337):
TP1: +(5,650-5,337)/5,337100=+5.87%
TP2: +(5,800-5,337)/5,337100=+8.70%
SL : -(5,337-5,125)/5,337*100=-3.97%

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp5,438):
TP1: +(5,650-5,438)/5,438100=+3.89%
TP2: +(5,800-5,438)/5,438100=+6.67%
SL : -(5,438-5,125)/5,438*100=-5.75%

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis:

CMRY bagikan dividen interim Rp793,46 miliar (cum: 17 Okt, payment: 30 Okt) — yield kecil, namun positif untuk sentimen yield hunting Kalender Q4​

H1 2025 laba bersih naik 23,8% YoY ke Rp993,8 miliar, pendapatan tumbuh solid +16,5% YoY, margin operasional dan efisiensi membaik; produk konsumsi tumbuh +31,83% YoY dorong penjualan, dividen interim 79,8% dari laba​

Sektor F&B forecast growth 12–15% pada 2025, CMRY masuk proyeksi top growth dan defensive consumer, PER premium (28.4x, peers 12.13x); capital inflow asing kuat dan ekuitas tinggi (https://cutt.ly/8r5uqlmc, SimplyWall 28 Okt)​

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Valuasi relatif mahal di premium sector, potensi dividend trap pasca pembayaran 30 Okt, risk profit-taking di atas supply BB upper, didukung oleh euforia dividen dan tekanan volume​

Produk susu (yoghurt, UHT) stagnan, risk penurunan penjualan segmen dairy, margin pressure pada persaingan industri konsumer padat​

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Komunitas retail dominan swing buy menjelang dividen, heatmap volume aktif 5,275–5,400, distribusi mulai muncul di atas 5,475–5,650, forum diskusi ramainya strategi scalping/swing; konsensus positif pada kinerja, waspada reversal short term Q4​

🔥 TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama: 15m, Daily

5m: Konsolidasi base 5,325–5,375, konfirmasi clean bullish rally, volume naik 3 sesi.

15m: EMA9>EMA21, Stoch RSI >70, RSI14=71, volume akumulasi, support kuat di range lower flag 5,300–5,400.

Daily: Struktur HH-HL, breakout flag, EMA9/21/50 up, RSI 98.5, MACD bullish hist, OBV naik, BB squeeze break out, supply BB upper zone di 5,650; VPVR HVN 5,650–5,800​​

(Indikator utama: EMA9/21/50, SMA20/50/100/200, VWAP, MACD 12,26,9, RSI14~98.5, ATR14~90, Stoch RSI up>55, OBV naik, VPVR HVN, BB 20/2, ADX14>30 bullish, CCI14>100 extrem.)

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m, 15m, 1h

Rules: Entry limit/base, trigger bullish volume/candle, batch TP1 40%, batch TP2 30%, trailing batch 30% SL ATR

Order: Limit di konsolidasi support, market confirm breakout, trailing ATR x 1.15

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: 1h, Daily, Weekly

Entry batch saat price di area MA21/flag, scaling breakout volume di BB upper/EMA9/21, scaling out bertahap TP1–TP2

Trailing ATR atau EMA cross, exit jika muncul candle reversal bearish atau news/earning Q4 negatif

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Momentum naik “kuat”, didukung breakout bullish flag, volume akumulasi, sentimen dividen dan capital inflow asing, indikator EMA/BB squeeze confirm; risiko profit-taking di supply tetap perlu diwaspadai.

SINYAL:
🚀 Sinyal (Scalping/Swing):

Scalping: Entry base/breakout di 5,275–5,400, konfirmasi volume/candle bullish, TP1 di 5,650, trailing SL ATR.

Swing: Akumulasi batch MA21/breakout flag, scaling jika BB upper 5,475–5,800, scaling-out TP2.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping & Swing (reward-risk sehat, sektor defensif, capital inflow kuat; tidak cocok long hold tanpa trailing).

✨ Confident:

Nilai confidence 80%
Faktor: Kinerja Q2-Q3 kuat, dividen, inflow asing, breakout flag valid, risiko premium dan profit-taking high.

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:

15m & Daily

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA9/21/50, SMA20/50/100/200, VWAP, MACD 12/26/9, RSI14, ATR14, Stoch RSI, OBV, VPVR, BB 20/2, ADX14, CCI14

Fokus MA cross, BB squeeze, volume candle, ATR SL, VPVR HVN TP.

📚 RINGKASAN – [31 Okt 2025]

CMRY Q3: Breakout bullish flag, dividen interim cair, sentimen positif dan inflow asing tinggi; strategi scalping/swing valid, disiplin profit-taking dan SL wajib.

DISCLAIMER:
Bukan nasihat keuangan. Selalu gunakan manajemen risiko, position sizing, dan disiplin TP/SL.

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