$NICK
ENTRY IDEAL: Rp1.260–Rp1.310
Alasan teknikal singkat: Entry level ini berada di zona support-resistance yang telah tertest multiple times (Oct 16-24: high Rp1.260, low Rp1.170–Rp1.190). Consolidation phase Oct 20-26 membentuk akumulasi base sebelum breakout ke Rp1.345 (Oct 27) dan spike ke Rp1.675 (Oct 28). Entry mid Rp1.285 adalah confluence zone dari: (a) previous resistance Oct 14 high (Rp1.425), (b) EMA9/21 likely crossover area, (c) volume profile HVN dari 320K-843K volume days (Oct 14-15 earnings announcement spike). Konfirmasi diperlukan: (1) Candle close & hold >Rp1.300 dengan volume >50K, (2) Pin bar atau hammer di zone Rp1.260–Rp1.280, (3) RSI bounce dari 40–50 (neutral zone), (4) Next daily close >1.310 confirm reversal strength.
ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp1.200–Rp1.260
Alasan teknikal, risiko, kondisi konfirmasi yang dibutuhkan: Entry agresif menargetkan support level Rp1.200 (tested Oct 13 low Rp1.140 → Oct 20+ consolidation floor). Risk lebih tinggi karena lebih dekat ke breakdown zone (~Rp1.075 Oct 15 gap low). Cocok untuk aggressive scalper jika pullback terjadi dari peak & volume spike reversal terdeteksi. Konfirmasi MUTLAK diperlukan: (1) Strong volume spike >100K pada bounce dari Rp1.200, (2) Bullish engulfing atau reversal candle di support, (3) Daily close >Rp1.260 dengan next day momentum, (4) Earnings catalyst (Q3 positive result Oct 26) sustained buying narrative. Setup ini valid mengingat strong fundamental tailwind (Q3 profit Rp83.4B, PER 9.49x attractive).
TP1: Rp1.400
Alasan singkat: Level ini adalah resistance intraday dari Oct 14 high (Rp1.425). Area Rp1.395–Rp1.425 adalah supply zone dari profit-taking pada earnings rally. Breakout TP1 dengan volume confirmation akan target swing ke TP2. Ideal untuk scalp profit-taking batch 1 atau partial exit strategy.
TP2: Rp1.500
Alasan singkat: Intermediate resistance & psychological level. Jika breakout TP1 sustained (volume + candle confirmation), swing akan target ke Rp1.500. Area ini represents 25% recovery dari peak Rp1.675 & natural fibonacci retracement zone. Excellent untuk swing trade menengah (3–5 hari).
TP3: Rp1.600
Alasan singkat: Approaching previous peak zone (pre-Oct 28 high). Breakout TP2 dengan momentum akan target recovery ke Rp1.600–Rp1.675. Setup jangka medium untuk hold position menggunakan trailing stop, target fundamental-driven move jika company announces synergy/expansion plan.
SL: Rp1.150
Alasan: Level ini berada ~10.5% di bawah entry ideal (Rp1.285), memberikan safety margin reasonable. Support structure analysis menunjukkan hard floor di Rp1.100–Rp1.140 (Oct 13 low Rp1.140, Oct 15 gap low Rp1.075). SL di Rp1.150 adalah buffer zone memberikan room untuk natural pullback tanpa whipsaw, tapi firm enough jika breakdown benar-benar terjadi. Jika SL hit, next support jauh di bawah (~Rp1.000), indicating major reversal.
ATR-based alternative: Daily ATR ≈ Rp85–Rp120 (dari volatility Oct 14-28). Conservative SL = Entry - 1.5×ATR = 1.285 - (1.5×100) = Rp1.135, namun fixed SL Rp1.150 lebih praktis untuk swing trading dengan discipline exit.
ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis (Bullish):
Q3 2025 Earnings Explosion: +529% YoY Profit, Rp83.4B Net Income [26–27 Oktober 2025]
PT Charnic Capital (NICK) mencatat lonjakan DRAMATIS di Q3 2025: Laba bersih Rp83,37 miliar (vs rugi Rp19,42 miliar Q3 2024)—profit swing +529% YoY!
Pemicu: Pendapatan investasi portofolio efek berbalik positif ke Rp93,36 miliar (dari rugi Rp19,85 miliar Q3 2024). Perseroan mulai catat penjualan baru Rp4,73 miliar.
Dampak positif: Trigger rally massive Oct 14-15 (volume spike 320K–843K), market enthusiasm HUGE terhadap turnaround story. Investor confidence pada management & capability untuk generate returns meningkat sharply.
Attractive Valuation & Strong Fundamentals Improvement [26 Oktober 2025]
PER hanya 9.49x (sangat undervalued untuk investment holding company dengan diversified portfolio).
ROE 29.12%, ROA 28.51% (exceptional efficiency metrics). Net Profit Margin 81.6% (outstanding untuk financial services).
Debt/Equity 0.02, Debt/EBITDA 0.08 (fortress balance sheet, virtually zero leverage).
EPS Rp128.05 (strong per-share earnings, supports dividend potential).
Fundamental transformation: Dari chronic loss (-3 tahun berturut-turut per sebelumnya) → profitability achieved. Narrative "hidden value unlock" resonates dengan value investors.
Portfolio Rebalancing & Strategic Divestiture (Sep 2025)
PT Indovest Central (62.64% controller) melakukan portfolio optimization: divest Rp21,99 miliar dari FUJI stocks (54.98M shares), reduce NICK stake slightly (12M shares sold Rp18B Sep 22).
Signal: Manajemen executing disciplined capital allocation; reallocate gains into higher-opportunity assets; demonstrate conviction pada NICK fundamentals despite share sales (parent still holds 57.6%).
Risiko & Sentimen Negatif (Bearish/Caution):
Massive +31% Rally dalam 2 Hari (Oct 27-28: Rp1.345 → Rp1.675 High) [28 Oktober 2025]
Peak Rp1.675 merupakan 54x rally dari IPO level Rp200 (May 2018)—extremely parabolic move. Current price Rp1.285 masih +23% pullback dari peak, tapi tetap 542% naik dari 52w low Rp50—over-extended.
Red flag: Peak Rp1.675 likely reached on low volume (consolidation cap), potential exhaustion setup. If sentiment shift, bisa retest Rp1.200–Rp1.100 rapidly (previous support).
Trading Suspension History & Regulatory Risk [Juni 2025]
NICK suspended trading June 25, 2025 → lifted June 26, 2025 (likely due to rumored acquisition/material news delay). Suspension history shows regulatory scrutiny & potential future halts if material delays announced.
Risk: Jika earnings momentum jebol atau guidance disappointment, halt bisa terjadi again, locking in losses.
Valuation Stretched vs Historical, Profit Sustainability Uncertain [26 Oktober 2025]
PER 9.49x attractive BUT absolute price Rp1.285 represents 544% gain from IPO—bubble risk. Q3 profit spike dari portfolio gains (Rp93.36B) — one-time nature possible, recurring earnings unclear.
Risk: Jika investment portfolio performance tepid di Q4 2025 atau market correction, profit revert to historical low levels → re-rating brutal turun ke Rp600–Rp800 range.
Sentimen Komunitas/Market:
Bullish retail (momentum traders): Forum Stockbit shows "buy setup after earnings, TP 1500–1600" sentiment—FOMO entries saat gap up Oct 27.
Value investor bullish: PER 9.49x + ROE 29% attract contrarian buyers; some analyst view Rp1.285 as accumulation zone jika pullback lanjut.
Cautious analyst: Valuation bubble concern, profit sustainability unproven, small cap liquidity risk. Setup "sell on strength" approach recommended.
