$HMSP

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF
✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp690–Rp705
(Alasan teknikal singkat: support MA50/EMA21 daily, window konsolidasi, volume buy muncul, candle bullish reversal di area demand, pantulan Stoch RSI mulai recovery, BB lower band support)

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp710–Rp720
(Alasan teknikal: entry saat candle hijau breakout di atas EMA9/MA20, risk lebih tinggi jika volume belum sustain, harus ada konfirmasi candle reversal dan volume spike di TF 15m atau 1h)

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: Rp750
(Alasan: pivot resistance, level distribusi spekulan, area psikologis, dan upper BB/ATH minor)

TP2: Rp800
(Alasan: resistance major, supply zona Q3 dan swing trader, area distribusi besar dan konsensus target swing])

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):
SL: Rp680
(Alasan: ATR(14) ±10pt, cluster MA50/EMA100 daily, breakdown support window demand. SL = entry ideal - ATR = 690 - 10 = 680)

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE
Dari Entry Ideal (Rp697):
TP1: +7.61% (hitung: (750-697)/697100)
TP2: +14.78% (hitung: (800-697)/697100)
SL : -2.44%  (hitung: (697-680)/697*100)

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp715):
TP1: +4.90%
TP2: +11.89%
SL : -4.90%

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis:

Semester I 2025: penjualan turun 4,57% ke Rp55,17T, laba bersih anjlok 35,83% ke Rp2,13T, margin tertekan kenaikan cukai & volume turun tajam, katalis: wacana penundaan kenaikan cukai rokok 2026, BlackRock akumulasi di September, proyeksi net profit FY25 naik 6% jika tak ada kenaikan cukai.

Dividen konsisten dan arus kas sehat, namun NPM & GPM rendah, valuasi PBV 2.6x (overvalued), earning stagnan, volume ekspor heat-not-burn naik 190% YoY di Q3.

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Risiko profit-taking & distribusi besar pasca rally, volume sales tembakau turun 8% YoY (lebih buruk dari industri), margin ditekan expense dan cukai. Kalau revisi cukai gagal, downside risk kembali besar.

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Komunitas dan heatmap aktif window pivot buy Rp690–710, distribusi besar selalu di Rp750-800, euforia swing trader dan institusi pada momentum breakout, forum ramai short-term bounce swing.

🔥 TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama dianalisa: 15m & Daily

5m: Sideways, bounce kecil, volume konsolidasi window.

15m: RSI & Stoch oversold, konfirmasi volume muncul, harga mendekat ke window buy pivot.

Daily: Struktur potential HL bullish reversal, candle di MA50/EMA21, volume buy, BB lower band, OBV stabil, ATR naik, MACD bear flatten.

(Indikator utama: EMA9/21>MA50, RSI=48.9, MACD flatten, BB lower band as support, atr tinggi, OBV sideways.)

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m–15m

Entry window buy/pivot Rp690–705, konfirmasi candle hijau & volume spike, TP1 50% modal, batch 2 trailing ke TP2 atau sell jika breakout gagal.

Order: limit buy support pivot, trailing sell ATR/candle merah spike.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: Daily–Weekly

Entry batch kecil di window support, scaling out pada breakout dan volume valid. Trailing stop ATR/EMA cross, exit di TP atau jika berita cukai/tekanan volume muncul.

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Momentum naik valid short-term, window support buy kuat, katalis cukai, BlackRock akumulasi, risiko sell-off jika penundaan gagal.

SINYAL:
🚀 Sinyal Scalping/Swing: Entry window buy pivot MA50/EMA21 Rp690–705, TP di cluster distribusi Rp750–800, trailing SL wajib.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping-Swing batch kecil, tidak cocok hold tanpa risk trailing.

✨ Confident:

Nilai confidence 73% — buy window valid, volume & katalis cukai mendukung, risk downside jika triggered.

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:

15m & Daily

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA9/21/50, MA50/100, BB(20,2), ATR(14), RSI(14), Stoch RSI, VWAP, MACD, OBV

📚 RINGKASAN – [08 Okt 2025]

HMSP valid scalping/swing window buy pada katalis cukai & volume buy, risk trailing wajib karena tekanan earnings & margin lemah.

$MSIE $RELI