$COIN

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF
✅ ENTRY IDEAL: Rp3.250–Rp3.440
(Alasan teknikal singkat: cluster support MA3021/2890, konsolidasi atas di atas breakout, candle hijau doji-close di resistance, RSI overbought (74.45), risk reward baik jika entry di pullback volume support; scaling entry batch kecil jika price-action base bertahan di area 3.250–3.440, konfirmasi volume hijau.)

🔰 ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp3.450–Rp3.620
(Alasan teknikal: entry break di atas high konsolidasi atas, candle hijau-breakout plus volume; risiko false breakout dan distribusi bandar, wajib scaling kecil dan trailing stop ketat jika candle reversal merah body besar muncul.)

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)
🔥 TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: Rp3.750
(Alasan: resistance swing-high minor sebelum distribusi, psikologis dan area target breakout rally IDR.)

TP2: Rp4.200
(Alasan: target ekstensi/next swing upper, gap-up setelah IPO dan resistance utama channel rally terakhir.)

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):
SL: Rp2.900
(Alasan: support ATR(14) ≈ 300–350, pullback ke bawah MA2890, breakdown area base konsolidasi, exit kalau closing <2.900.)

📊 RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE
Dari Entry Ideal (Rp3.345):
TP1: +12.14% ((3750-3345)/3345100)
TP2: +25.56% ((4200-3345)/3345100)
SL : -13.33% ((2900-3345)/3345*100)

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp3.535):
TP1: +6.08% ((3750-3535)/3535100)
TP2: +18.82% ((4200-3535)/3535100)
SL : -17.96% ((2900-3535)/3535*100)

📰 ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis:

COIN (Indokripto Koin Semesta) emiten kripto pertama BEI, laba Q2 2025 Rp71,2M dengan revenue 1H25 naik >200%, IPO Juli oversubscribed 180x, bisnis berkembang di aset kripto, derivative, dan custody [Infobank, Kontan, https://cutt.ly/Fr1vej2E, 1 Okt].

Ekspansi belum selesai: aktif launching derivatif aset kripto, memperkuat lini CFX & ICC; approval OJK untuk model bisnis & platform digital multi-sektor baru [Kontan 26 Sep].
Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Distribusi bandar sangat besar (-Rp124,8M), volatilitas ekstrem (252% YTD); net buy asing masih moderat, saham bagger (+3.400% IPO–Okt 2025) rawan panic profit taking cepat, sudah 2x suspensi bursa dalam sebulan [https://cutt.ly/Ir1vekft 25 Sep].
Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Euforia retail tinggi di breakout IPO, heatmap selalu hijau volume base, swing trader menahan posisi lebih banyak di area support, spekulasi altcoin musiman & crypto ETF pendukung sentimen global (Pintu/CryptoRank/Oktober historical bull).

🔥 TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama: 15m & Daily

5m: Konsolidasi atas range sempit, quick scalp di spike pullback-mini, volume tracking.

15m: Trend HH/HL, konsolidasi atas, area base 3.250–3.440 valid.

1h: Konsolidasi squeeze, bullish break jika close tembus 3.450+ volume tinggi.

4h: Uptrend sustain, base support kuat di area MA3021–3.250.

Daily: EMA/MA di bawah harga, konsolidasi atas, overbought strong (RSI74.45), candle close hijau, OBV tipis naik, distribusi bandar masih aktif.

Weekly: Rally bagger ekstrem, konsolidasi sehat, reversal hanya jika close <2.900.

(Indikator utama: EMA9/21, MA2890/3021/3440, RSI14 (74.45), ATR(14) ≈ 300, OBV, VWAP, Volume Profile HVN 3.000–3.440, MACD pozit.)

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m & 15m

Rules entry: Buy limit di support base (pullback mini rally), volume hijau, TP on spike top, trailing batch fast.

Sizing: Batch 1 = 40% support base, batch 2 breakout, trailing batch jika rally follow through.

Order: Limit buy support/pullback, exit TP batch fast.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: 1h, 4h, Daily

Rules entry: Batch kecil di base support, tambah size breakout valid >3.450+volume, trailing stop ATR, exit bawah 2.900/ATR.

Exit: TP bertahap, scaling-out jika euforia berkurang/distribusi bandar makin ekstrem.

📈 MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Momentum sangat kuat (bullish euforia), namun swing/hold sangat berisiko tanpa TP/SL mutlak karena volatilitas dan distribusi tinggi.

SINYAL:
🚀 Sinyal (Scalping / Swing): Buy di area base support konsolidasi, scalping quick TP, swing breakout only jika volume besar sustain dan candle body kuat di 3.450+.

✅ Cocok Untuk: Scalping & swing euforia batch, tidak cocok hold mid/long tanpa trailing SL dan disiplin TP.

✨ Confident:

Nilai confidence: 66% — momentumnya kuat, growth & katalis digital besar, namun distribusi, euforia & suspensi berulang membatasi.

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:

15m & Daily

📊 INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA9/21, MA2890/3021/3440, RSI14 (74.45), ATR14 (300), OBV, VWAP, MACD

📚 RINGKASAN – [02 Okt 2025]
COIN bagger IPO +3.400%, bullish konsolidasi area 3.250–3.440, euforia kuat tapi distribusi bandar serta volatilitas super tinggi. Cocok scalping & swing short-term, trailing stop dan disiplin TP mutlak, batch kecil, confidence 66%.

STRATEGY: Entry di MARKET OPEN (pagi)

Amati 1–3 candle 5m, konfirmasi scalping base, limit order di base, batasi batch awal 40%.

DISCLAIMER:
Bukan nasihat keuangan. Selalu gunakan manajemen risiko, position sizing, dan disiplin TP/SL.

$AMMN $TLKM