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$SMGR

ENTRY IDEAL & AGRESIF
βœ… ENTRY IDEAL: Rp2.815–Rp2.845
(Alasan teknikal singkat: Support EMA21/50, base cluster sideways 2 minggu terakhir, volume rebound aktif di bawah MA stack, candle reversal sering muncul, scaling batch kecil konfirmasi candle hijau di area demand; validasi by bid/volume aktif di 2815–2845)

πŸ”° ENTRY AGRESIF: Rp2.850–Rp2.880
(Alasan teknikal: Entry saat breakout MA stack, risiko fakeout bila gagal sustain volume breakout, konfirmasi wajib candle hijau + volume breakout di atas MA20/50, scaling kecil, cut jika kembali breakdown ke bawah EMA21)

TAKE PROFIT (TP) & STOP LOSS (SL)
πŸ”₯ TAKE PROFIT (TP):
TP1: Rp2.900
(Alasan singkat: Resistance minor & supply upper BB, area distribusi scalping dan pivot distribusi terakhir, fibo retrace mini)

TP2: Rp2.960
(Alasan singkat: Swing high September, supply upper BB & cluster distribusi utama sideways, target swing TP ketika momentum rebound lanjut)

🚫 STOP LOSS (SL):
SL: Rp2.765
(Alasan: Support EMA100, ATR(14) Β±36; SL: Entry Ideal - ATR β‰ˆ 2.815–36 β‰ˆ 2.779, dibulatkan ke 2.765 untuk buffer demand base bawah)

πŸ“Š RISK-REWARD PERSENTASE
Dari Entry Ideal (Rp2.830):
TP1: +(2.900-2.830)/2.830100 β‰ˆ +2,47%
TP2: +(2.960-2.830)/2.830100 β‰ˆ +4,6%
SL : -(2.830-2.765)/2.830*100 β‰ˆ -2,30%

Dari Entry Agresif (Rp2.865):
TP1: +(2.900-2.865)/2.865100 β‰ˆ +1,22%
TP2: +(2.960-2.865)/2.865100 β‰ˆ +3,32%
SL : -(2.865-2.765)/2.865*100 β‰ˆ -3,49%

πŸ“° ISU, BERITA & SENTIMEN PASAR
Fundamental & Katalis:

Kinerja Q2/2025 tertekan: revenue semester I/2025 turun 5% YoY ke Rp15,6T, net profit cuma Rp40M (net profit margin super tipis), EPS Rp5,88, debt/equity moderat (0,61x), PBV sangat rendah (0,36x), val. murah namun bottom line rapuh.

Penjualan domestik turun 7,7%, namun penjualan regional (ekspor) naik 18,7% YoY ke 4,3 juta ton; ekspor jadi penopang utama Q3–Q4, didukung stabilitas macro dan inisiatif distribusi baru.

Dividen tunai Rp96,22/saham distribusi tahun ini, yield moderat ~3,4%.

Risiko & Sentimen Negatif:

Valuasi PER trailing 426,9x (super premium, efek anomali bottom line), ROE cuma 0,08%, profitabilitas dan daya beli domestik lemah, risiko utama: MMME/minim katalis pembalikan fundamental s.d. akhir 2025; banyak analis rekomendasikan SELL hingga harga di bawah Rp2.500.

Sentimen Komunitas/Market:

Sentimen retail & trader masih dominan batch scalping/rebound di support bawah, distribusi aktif di 2.900–2.960, heatmap orderbook menunjukkan minat beli/sell berimbang di range sideways; diskusi forum cenderung wait & see, bukan trending sector.

πŸ”₯ TEKNIKAL & MOMENTUM (per-timeframe)

Timeframe utama yang dianalisa: 15m, Daily

5m: Sideways, reversing candle sering muncul di 2.820–2.850, scalping mini batch.

15m: EMAβ‰ˆflat, BB squeeze, volume flat, sideways volatilitas kecil.

1h: Konsolidasi demand, support base di 2.820.

4h: Range konsolidasi, pola reversal sideways, doji candle sering muncul.

Daily: EMA/MA21/50/100 stack, ATR(14): 36, RSI(14): 52.81, CCI oversold, BB squeezing, OBV stabil, trend sideways lebih dari 1 bulan, resistensi kuat 2.900–2.960.

Weekly: Medium-term sideways, tidak ada strong trend up.

(Indikator utama: EMA9/21/50/100/200, MA50/100/200, RSI(14), ATR(14), BB(20,2), MACD, VWAP, OBV, ADX/CCI moderate.)

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Scalping)

Timeframe: 5m, 15m

Rules entry: Batch kecil di support valid 2.815–2.845, konfirmasi candle reversal & spike bid volume, TP ketat di resistance, trailing SL close di bawah demand.

TP/SL & sizing: Batch 1=60% modal TP1, batch 2 scaling breakout, trailing 20% modal TP/SL.

Contoh order: Limit order di support, scaling breakout, exit fast jika reversal merah besar muncul.

✨ STRATEGI TRADING (Swing/Hold)

Timeframe: 1h, Daily

Rules entry & scaling in: Entry batch kecil base konsolidasi, scaling up pada break MA stack (2.885+), trailing SL ATR-based EMA cross.

Exit plan per TP/tekanan berita: Exit batch di resistance swing, trailing pada breakdown volume/tidak sustain.

πŸ“ˆ MOMENTUM NAIK/TIDAK?

Kesimpulan: Momentum naik terbatas, sideways panjang, volatilitas mengecil, TP minimal untuk scalping/swing batch kecil, mix sinyal sideways dan tidak trend-follow.

SINYAL:
πŸš€ Sinyal Scalping: Entry batch kecil demand base, TP di resistance 2.900/2.960, trailing SL ketat.
πŸš€ Sinyal Swing: Entry batch kecil side range, scaling up breakout 2.880+, trailing SL ATR-based.

βœ… Cocok Untuk: Scalping atau mini-swing β€” sideways, bukan trend up.

✨ Confident:

Nilai confidence: 58% β€” sideways tebal, volatilitas flat, value murah tapi profit lemah, risk reward hanya cocok batch kecil disiplin.

✨ TIMEFRAME UTAMA:

15m, Daily

πŸ“Š INDIKATOR UTAMA:

EMA9/21/50/100/200, MA50/100/200, RSI(14), ATR(14), MACD, VWAP, BB(20,2), OBV, ADX, CCI.

πŸ“š RINGKASAN – [01 Okt 2025]

SMGR sideways dengan trend flat, support MA stack, fundamental ditekan konsumsi domestik, profit tipis, batch kecil beli hanya untuk scalping & mini swing; trend major belum muncul, rekomendasi batch kecil & exit ketat.

STRATEGY: Entry di MARKET OPEN (pagi)

Tunggu 1–3 candle awal konfirmasi volume & reversal, entry batch kecil di demand, scaling breakout, trailing SL, exposure ≀40%.

$MPOW $ANJT

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