chatgpt projection on $IHSG monday market reaction
You bet—let's weave in the recent rupiah depreciation into our risk-adjusted IHSG scenarios. Here's the updated and sharper outlook for tomorrow's session:
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Rupiah’s Slide: Adding Fuel to Market Volatility
Recent data underscore how the weakening rupiah is compounding risk perception in local markets:
The rupiah dropped nearly 1% and the IHSG tumbled over 2% amid escalating protests. The currency hit its weakest levels since early August at around IDR 16,475–16,495 per USD.
Bank Indonesia (BI) has responded swiftly, pledging active intervention across spot, offshore, and NDF markets, and stepping up government bond purchases to stabilize the rupiah.
Research indicates a near 1:1 correlation between rupiah depreciation and stock market returns—each 1% rupiah weakening can knock ~0.9% off aggregate index returns. Banking and mortgage sectors are particularly vulnerable.
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Scenario Forecasts: Rupiah Risk Amplified
1) Contained — But Rupiah Still Weak (30% Probability)
Narrative: Protests are cooling; BI’s interventions calm FX markets; rupiah stabilizes modestly.
IHSG Behavior:
Open: -1.8% to -2.5% (deeper gap due to rupiah drag)
Close: -1.0% to -1.8% (partial recovery if confidence returns)
Watch: Sectors like consumer staples, telcos, and exporters (in USD terms) hold better; banks and mortgage finance under pressure due to FX exposure.
2) Choppy & Prolonged Unrest + Rupiah Treads Lower (45% Probability)
Narrative: Protests persist or expand; rupiah remains under pressure; sentiment remains fragile despite policy responses.
IHSG Behavior:
Open: -3.0% to -4.0%
Close: -2.2% to -3.5%
Impact: Foreigners continue selling; real estate, banking, infrastructure, consumer cyclical sectors under fire; defensive plays less hurt but still down.
3) Sharp Escalation — Rupiah Cracks Wider (25% Probability)
Narrative: New outbreaks of violence or flashpoints; rupiah resumes sharp freefall; BI intervention seen as reactive, not sufficient.
IHSG Behavior:
Open: -4.5% to -6.0% (circuit breaker risk)
Close: -4.0% to -6.0% if halted or severe panic selling continues
Outcome: Broad sell-off across all sectors; only deep-USD-linked exporters or major defensives might outperform slightly.
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Key Real-Time Indicators to Watch Ahead of Open
1. Rupiah Moves: Any additional weakening overnight hints at deeper downside in IHSG. If IDR breaches new levels (e.g., ~IDR 16,600), scenario 2–3 likelihood increases.
2. FX Intervention News: Aggressive BI support (e.g., larger-than-expected bond purchases or reserve usage) can attenuate the impact and tilt toward scenario 1.
3. Foreign Capital Flow Cues: Reports of continued foreign bond/equity outflows will likely drag sentiment further.
4. Headline Flashpoints: Arrests, new protest violence, or disruptions to critical infrastructure will amplify risk; calming signals (e.g., official investigations, arrests of key perpetrators) could help.
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Tactical Takeaways
Open Level Rupiah Trend Suggested Strategy
≤ −2%, rupiah weakens further Continued FX stress Hold cash; avoid high-β sectors; hedge FX
~ −2% but rupiah stabilizes Central bank calming FX Selective entries into defensives/FX earners
−3%+ or halted session Sharp FX depreciation Sideways; await clarity
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without rupiah depreciation :
Here’s an updated, news-calibrated take for the next IHSG session (Mon, Sept 1, 2025, Jakarta time) based on today’s reporting:
Tone of risk: Clearly elevated. Protests have turned violent in several cities; vandalism and arson of public facilities (incl. multiple TransJakarta stops) and attacks on politicians’ homes (incl. the finance minister’s) are reported. The president scrapped an overseas trip, security presence is up, and some platforms curtailed live streams—yet parties also conceded by revoking certain MP perks. Net effect: near-term stress with partial policy salve, but not fully de-escalated.
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IHSG scenarios for Monday (updated)
1) Contained but tense (40% probability)
Narrative: Violence tapers overnight; gov’t messaging + perk rollback cool tempers; no fresh flashpoints.
Tape: Gap down, stabilizes as locals buy dips; foreigners still net sellers but smaller.
Range: Open -1.5% to -2.2%; close -0.7% to -1.5%.
Relatively resilient: staples, telco, healthcare; exporters if IDR stays soft.
2) Choppy & prolonged unrest (45% probability)
Narrative: More scattered vandalism or confrontations; images circulate; police/military posture stays high.
Tape: Foreign outflows resume; IDR wobbly; beta and small/mid caps underperform.
Range: Open -2.5% to -3.5%; close -1.8% to -2.8%.
Weak: banks, property, infra, discretionary retail.
Flags to watch pre-open: any overnight fatalities, arson, or major road closures; further platform restrictions.
3) Sharp escalation (15% probability)
Narrative: New fatal incidents or high-profile attacks; comparisons to past crises dominate global headlines.
Tape: Disorderly risk-off in rupiah assets; potential trading curb if losses compound.
Range: Open -4% to -5%; close -3.5% to -5% (halts possible intraday).
Everything sells; only high-quality defensives and USD earners hold up.
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Flow & FX tells (for your pre-open read)
Foreign net sell risk is high given Friday’s moves and headlines; IDR pressure tends to amplify equity drawdowns. If early wires note sizeable perk rollbacks and quieter streets, that nudges us toward Scenario 1; any overnight violence swings it to Scenario 2–3.
Tactical (concise)
If open ≤ -2% and headlines improve: scale into large-cap defensives; stagger entries.
If open < -3% with worsening headlines: prioritize cash; avoid high-beta banks/property/infra; hedge IDR if possible.
Intraday tell: narrowing losses + easing IDR = buy-the-dip window; fresh flashpoints = sell strength.
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