If we look at it fundamentally and holistically, the September Fed rate cut would generally be the stronger and more persistent price driver than “Ukraine–Russia peace,” but the answer depends on which market and what timeframe we’re talking about.


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1. Why the Fed rate cut has stronger and broader market impact

Global financial system linkage – The Fed funds rate directly influences U.S. Treasury yields, global capital flows, the dollar’s strength, and thus commodity and equity valuations worldwide.

Predictable liquidity effect – Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing, higher corporate valuations, and increased risk appetite. This feeds all asset classes: stocks, bonds, housing, and even crypto.

Sustained pricing influence – The effect lasts months to years because it changes the macro liquidity environment, not just the news cycle.



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2. Why Ukraine–Russia peace still matters, but less globally sustained

Immediate commodity price shock – Peace could sharply push down oil, gas, wheat, and fertilizer prices, and could lift certain regional equities.

Risk premium removal – Safe-haven demand for gold, USD, and U.S. bonds could temporarily ease.

Narrower scope over time – The global markets would absorb the event relatively quickly (weeks to a few months) unless the peace deal triggers major structural changes in energy flows, sanctions policy, or NATO’s posture.



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3. Market reaction scale (simplified)

Event Short-term shock (1–5 days) Medium-term trend (1–6 months) Global scope

Ukraine–Russia peace Very strong in commodities, moderate in FX & equities Fades unless tied to deep trade/sanction changes Regional + selective global
Fed rate cut Moderate on announcement day Strong & lasting across all major asset classes Global, systemic



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💡 Rule of thumb:

If you want a quick, sharp commodity move → peace deal news can be stronger in the moment.

If you want broad, lasting multi-asset trend shifts → Fed rate policy change wins almost every time.



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