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What’s the impact if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?

Ed Hirs, an energy expert and professor at the University of Houston in the US, says the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a significant effect on global oil prices.

As we’ve been reporting, Iran’s IRINN news agency reported that Esmail Kosari, a member of the Iranian parliament’s security commission, said the country was seriously reviewing the possible closure of the Strait in response to Israel’s attacks.

“The Strait carries between 18 and 20 million barrels per day, so almost 20 percent of the global oil market passes through the Strait of Hormuz,” Hirs told Al Jazeera. “There is no real easy alternative route out of that area for Saudi Arabia, for Kuwait.”

Cutting that traffic by half, Hirs explained, “would lead to a global oil price spike [of] probably over $120/barrel – that impact would hit everyone across the world very quickly.”

Closing the strait could give Trump – who has kept up tough rhetoric against Tehran but said he wants the conflict with Israel to end – “an excuse to attack Iran”, Hirs added.

“Attacking the global economy, attacking the US economy directly by cutting off the flow of oil to the global market, [that] would probably be the catalyst necessary to engage the US directly against Iran.”

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