Copy paste tulisan DeepSeek bahwa kondisi saat ini lebih mirip dengan 1929 dari pada 2008.

Today’s economic risks—soaring debt bubbles and extreme inequality—mirror the pre-1929 Great Depression era far more closely than the pre-2008 financial crisis. Here’s why:

1. Debt Bubbles: Then vs. Now
1929: Rampant Margin Debt & Speculation
- Stock market leverage: Investors borrowed heavily to buy stocks (margin debt peaked at ~20% of GDP).
- Bank loans fueled speculation: Banks lent recklessly, with no oversight.
- No safety nets: No FDIC, SEC, or Fed interventions to curb excesses.

2020s: Everything Bubble (Debt in Every Sector)
- Government debt: $34T+ (122% of GDP vs. ~16% in 1929).
- Corporate debt: $13T+ (junk bonds at record highs).
- Household debt: $17T+ (student loans, subprime auto loans).
- Shadow banking: Private credit (1.7T) and leveraged loans(1.4T) = new CDOs.

Why Worse Than 2008:
In 2008, the bubble was mostly housing/subprime. Today, every asset class (stocks, real estate, crypto, private equity) is inflated by cheap debt.

2. Inequality: 1929-Level Disparities
1929 : The "Roaring 20s" Wealth Gap
- Top 1% owned 45% of wealth.
- Wages stagnated while stocks soared.
- Farmers/workers were bankrupt before the crash.

2020s: The New Gilded Age
- Top 1% owns 32% of wealth (up from 23% in 2008).
- Top 10% owns 69% of stocks (vs. 77% in 1929).
- Wage stagnation: Real wages flat since 1970s, while CEO pay is 400x workers.

Why Worse Than 2008:
In 2008, inequality was bad but not as extreme as 1929. Today, we’re near 1929-level disparities, fueling social/political instability.

3. Policy Mistakes: Echoes of 1929
1929 Errors
- Fed tightened money (raised rates in 1928–29).
- Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley tariffs crushed trade.
- No bank bailouts: Let banks fail, worsening deflation.

2020s Risks
- Fed’s inflation fight: Rapid rate hikes (2022–23) risk breaking something (regional banks, commercial real estate).
- Deglobalization: U.S.-China decoupling, trade wars.
- Bailout fatigue: Public anger may prevent future rescues (e.g., SVB backlash).

Why Worse Than 2008:
In 2008, policymakers acted fast (TARP, QE). Today, politics are too polarized for a unified response.

4. Social Fragility: Pre-Revolutionary Vibes
1929:
- Breadlines, Labor Strikes, Radical Politics
- Bonus Army protests (1932).
- Rise of fascism/communism in Europe.

2020s:
- Unrest, Populism, Distrust
- Jan 6, Yellow Vests, Antifa vs. Far Right.
- "Eat the Rich" rhetoric (like 1930s class warfare).
- Central banks distrusted (crypto, gold surges).

Why Worse Than 2008:
In 2008, protests were muted (Occupy Wall Street was small). Today, society is a tinderbox.

5. The Trigger: What Could Spark the Next 1929?
- Commercial real estate crash ($1.5T in loans rolling over at higher rates).
- Private credit blowup (leveraged loans defaulting).
- A "Black Swan" (war, pandemic, crypto collapse).

Unlike 2008, today’s risks are broad and systemic—not just subprime mortgages.

Key Takeaway
Today’s economy resembles 1929 more than 2008 because:
✅ Debt is everywhere (not just housing).
✅ Inequality is near historic highs.
✅ Policy responses are slower/more political.
✅ Society is primed for upheaval.

2020s Risk = A debt-deflation crash (like 1929) with modern complexity (derivatives, algorithms, crypto).

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