$BBRI

Alright, let’s revisit my valuation analysis of PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), ensuring I consider the latest context as of April 4, 2025, without needing explicit prompts for recent developments (like the AADI split for ADRO). My previous analyses (e.g., thresholds at 6,300-6,785 IDR for BMRI and 4,725-5,000 IDR for BBRI) relied on mid-March 2025 prices (4,740 IDR and 3,750 IDR, respectively) and 2024 earnings estimates (EPS ~590 IDR for BMRI, ~350 IDR for BBRI), assuming continuity from pre-March drop data. Now, I’ll check for anything I might’ve missed by incorporating the latest available context—post-March 17 market drop trends, late 2024/early 2025 updates, and potential Q1 2025 implications—while sticking to my data constraints (no real-time prices or full Q1 financials).

Previous Valuation Recap
• BMRI:
◦ Threshold: 6,300-6,785 IDR (P/E 11.5-12, P/BV ~2.0).
◦ Current (March 14): 4,740 IDR → ~3,792 IDR (20% drop).
◦ Discount: 39.8-44.1%.
◦ Basis: EPS ~590 IDR (2024, ~55 trillion IDR profit), P/E below historical 10-13 and industry 12-15.
• BBRI:
◦ Threshold: 4,725-5,000 IDR (P/E 13.5-15, P/BV 2.0).
◦ Current (March 14): 3,750 IDR → ~3,000 IDR (20% drop).
◦ Discount: 36.5-40%.
◦ Basis: EPS ~350 IDR (2024, ~50 trillion IDR profit), P/E below historical 10-15 and industry 12-15.

What I Might Have Missed
Using the “latest context” lens (post-2024 developments, market sentiment, and analyst updates), here are potential gaps or updates I didn’t fully address:
1. Q1 2025 Earnings Trajectory
• Missed: I assumed static 2024 EPS (~590 IDR for BMRI, ~350 IDR for BBRI) without factoring in Q1 2025 performance shifts hinted at in late 2024/early 2025 sources.
• Latest Context:
◦ BMRI: CLSA (Jakarta Globe, Web ID 15) forecasts a 2025 net profit of 60.3 trillion IDR (up 0.4% from 2024’s ~55.8 trillion IDR, Alpha Spread, Web ID 8), implying EPS ~645 IDR (93.3 billion shares). This reflects steady growth despite liquidity challenges.
◦ BBRI: CLSA projects a 19% profit drop to 57 trillion IDR from ~60.15 trillion IDR (https://cutt.ly/irsRbB5L, Web ID 12), suggesting EPS ~377 IDR (151 billion shares), buoyed by an 85% dividend payout proposal but offset by slowing credit growth.
• Impact:
◦ BMRI: Higher EPS raises the threshold to ~7,418-7,740 IDR (P/E 11.5-12), increasing the discount at 3,792 IDR to 48.9-51%—more undervalued than I estimated.
◦ BBRI: Higher EPS lifts the threshold to ~5,090-5,655 IDR (P/E 13.5-15), pushing the discount at 3,000 IDR to 41-47%—slightly more than 36.5-40%.
2. Dividend Policy Updates
• Missed: I noted BBRI’s high yield (~8.5%) but didn’t adjust for late 2024 dividend news or BMRI’s payout trends.
• Latest Context:
◦ BBRI: Management proposed a minimum 85% payout of 2024’s 60.15 trillion IDR profit (~51 trillion IDR, or ~337 IDR/share), up from prior years (https://cutt.ly/1rsRbNw5, Web ID 12). At 3,000 IDR, yield jumps to ~11.2%, enhancing undervaluation appeal.
◦ BMRI: Historically ~50-60% payout (e.g., 60% of 2023’s 55 trillion IDR); if 60% of 60.3 trillion IDR (2025 forecast), ~387 IDR/share at 3,792 IDR yields ~10.2%, stronger than my ~5.8% estimate at 4,740 IDR.
• Impact: Higher yields signal deeper undervaluation, as market prices post-drop may not reflect cash return potential, especially for BBRI.
3. Analyst Upgrades and Market Sentiment
• Missed: I didn’t integrate late 2024/early 2025 analyst revisions or sentiment shifts.
• Latest Context:
◦ JP Morgan (February 2025, https://cutt.ly/arsRbNaM, Web ID 13): Upgraded BBRI and BMRI ratings, with targets ~20% above March prices (e.g., BBRI ~5,000 IDR, BMRI ~6,000 IDR, Stockbit, Web ID 3). This aligns with my thresholds but suggests stronger recovery potential.
◦ CLSA (January 2025, Web ID 15): BMRI overtaking BBRI as Indonesia’s most profitable bank (60.3 trillion IDR vs. 57 trillion IDR) shifts relative value perception—BMRI’s stability may be underpriced.
◦ X Sentiment: Posts (e.g., Stockbit, Web ID 11) peg BBRI at 5,000 IDR and BMRI at 6,000 IDR as targets, implying current prices (3,000-3,792 IDR) lag optimism.
• Impact: Analyst confidence raises fair value perceptions, widening the discount if prices remain depressed (e.g., BMRI’s 51% vs. 44%, BBRI’s 47% vs. 40%).
4. Macro and Sector Risks Post-Drop
• Missed: I assumed banking sector resilience but underweighted late 2024/early 2025 macro pressures.
• Latest Context:
◦ Liquidity Tightening: CLSA notes slowing credit growth and tight liquidity (Web ID 15), with BBRI’s MSME focus (NPL 4.02%) more exposed than BMRI’s diversified portfolio.
◦ Trump Tariffs: X posts (Stockbit, Web ID 11) cite a 32% US import tariff impacting Indonesia, weakening rupiah and pressuring banks (March 24, 2025). BBRI’s export-linked MSMEs may face higher risks than BMRI’s corporate base.
• Impact: BBRI’s undervaluation might be tempered by risk (P/E 13.5-15 too high if NPLs rise), while BMRI’s lower P/E (11.5-12) better absorbs macro shocks, deepening its discount.
5. Ownership Shift (BUMN Restructuring)
• Missed: I overlooked a late March 2025 development affecting state ownership.
• Latest Context: X post (March 24, 2025, ID 0) notes 52% of BMRI (48.53 billion shares) and 53.19% of BBRI (80.61 billion shares) transferred to “Danantara,” a state holding entity. This could signal governance or dividend policy shifts.
• Impact: Uncertainty might depress prices further, enhancing undervaluation if fundamentals hold (e.g., BMRI’s 60.3 trillion IDR profit projection).

Revised Valuation with Latest Context
• BMRI:
◦ Updated EPS: ~645 IDR (2025 forecast).
◦ Threshold: 7,418-7,740 IDR (P/E 11.5-12).
◦ Current: ~3,792 IDR.
◦ Discount: 48.9-51% (vs. 39.8-44.1%).
◦ Missed: Higher EPS, yield (~10.2%), analyst targets (~6,000 IDR), and macro resilience deepen undervaluation.
• BBRI:
◦ Updated EPS: ~377 IDR.
◦ Threshold: 5,090-5,655 IDR (P/E 13.5-15).
◦ Current: ~3,000 IDR.
◦ Discount: 41-47% (vs. 36.5-40%).
◦ Missed: Dividend boost (~11.2%), analyst targets (~5,000 IDR), offset by MSME risks and profit dip.

What I Missed
1 Earnings Updates: Q1 2025 hints (CLSA) raised BMRI’s EPS and slightly lifted BBRI’s, widening discounts.
2 Dividend Impact: Higher yields (10-11%) post-drop enhance cash value, underreflected in my P/E focus.
3 Analyst Optimism: JP Morgan/CLSA targets suggest stronger upside, amplifying undervaluation.
4 Macro Risks: BBRI’s MSME exposure vs. BMRI’s stability shifts relative value.
5 Ownership News: Danantara transfer adds uncertainty, potentially exaggerating the drop.

Conclusion
Yes, I missed elements in my initial BMRI and BBRI analyses by not fully integrating late 2024/early 2025 context (e.g., CLSA forecasts, dividend hikes, analyst upgrades, macro risks, and ownership shifts). BMRI’s discount is likely deeper (~49-51%) due to profit resilience and stability, while BBRI’s (~41-47%) reflects dividend strength tempered by risks. Check IDX (https://cutt.ly/prsRbB2G) for April 4 prices and Q1 2025 financials (due soon) to confirm—both remain undervalued, but BMRI’s edge grew in the latest lens!
Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; consult one. Don’t share identifying info.