@kr13l Bila menggunakan DCF berikut adalah perhitungan nilai $TUGU di masa mendatang:

Below is a concise financial analysis summary for Tugu Insurance (TUGU) based on its 2024 annual financial statements and how the key figures feed into a DCF valuation:
Overview of 2024 Financial Performance
Revenue & Earnings:
– The company generated substantial revenue from insurance premiums, with the 2024 report indicating premium income of approximately IDR 8.54 trillion (in thousands).
– Profitability from continuing operations was reported at around IDR 750 billion, although the 2023 period featured a large one‑off litigation gain (approximately IDR 940 billion) that has been excluded in normalized DCF analyses.
Asset & Equity Base:
– Total assets stood at roughly IDR 26.35 trillion, while total liabilities were approximately IDR 15.84 trillion.
– Total equity attributable to the parent was about IDR 9.77 trillion.
– These figures illustrate a sizable asset base with moderate leverage.
Cash & Liquidity:
– Cash and cash equivalents were reported at around IDR 358 billion.
– While a simple “cash minus debt” approach (using external debt estimates of roughly IDR 475 billion) might yield a modest net debt, some adjusted models incorporate additional cash balances—resulting in a strong negative net debt (i.e. cash surplus) that significantly boosts the equity value in DCF models.
Operating Cash Flow:
– The statement of cash flows shows operating cash flow of approximately IDR 414 billion.
– After deducting capital expenditures (around IDR 185 billion), a preliminary FCFF (Free Cash Flow to the Firm) is estimated in the vicinity of IDR 229 billion for 2024.
– For normalized DCF analyses, prior periods (e.g., 2023) are adjusted to remove non‑recurring items and to capture underlying earning power. For example, one model uses an adjusted base FCFF of about IDR 1,760 billion (with a multiplier applied to normalized net income) as the starting point.
DCF Valuation Inputs and Results
Using the normalized inputs—excluding the 2023 one‑off litigation gain—and assuming:
FCFF Growth: 8% per annum for the next 5 years, then a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Shares Outstanding: 3.56 billion.
Net Debt Adjustment: A strongly negative net debt (reflecting a large cash surplus) of approximately –7,354.6 billion IDR is assumed in one scenario.
Tax Rate: 22%.
Two scenarios were modeled based on beta assumptions:
Low‑Beta Scenario (Beta = 0.18):
– Using a cost of equity of about 7.99% and a WACC of roughly 7.86%, the projected FCFF stream (starting with an adjusted base FCFF of 1,760 billion IDR) grows to yield a total enterprise value of about 46,378 billion IDR.
– After adding the (negative) net debt, the resulting equity value translates to an estimated fair value of approximately 15,093 IDR per share.
Mid‑Beta Scenario (Beta = 0.8):
– With a higher cost of equity (11.4%) and a WACC near 11.0%, the lower discounting results in an enterprise value of about 27,855 billion IDR, and a corresponding fair value of roughly 9,888 IDR per share after net debt adjustments.
A sensitivity analysis further demonstrates that changes in WACC and terminal growth can materially impact the per‑share valuation, with a broad range emerging from different assumptions.
Conclusion
Based on the 2024 financial statements and the refined DCF model:
Tugu Insurance appears significantly undervalued.
Under the low‑beta assumption, the model suggests an intrinsic value of roughly 15,093 IDR per share, while the mid‑beta scenario yields about 9,888 IDR per share.
Both estimates are markedly higher than the current market price (around 1,000 IDR per share), implying a potential upside of between 890% and 1,409%.
Key Drivers:
A strong normalized operating performance once non‑recurring items are removed.
A robust asset base and favorable cash/liquidity position that result in negative net debt.