😎 The importance of probabilistic thinking is probably the most useful now.

What we as investors do over the next few months will likely impact greatly our next several years of returns.

I think the reactions from both camps of the bulls and bears are overblown, bond outflow is not excessive and while some problems persist, encouraging signs from some macro data and company results is present. But it's still a time of the survival of the fittest and a lot won't make it in full shape, while others would be in better shape.

With that being said, some of these cos are down a lot and still not attractive though (i'm talking about the fundamental ones). Some others that are more resilient or even antifragile are not down (or just slightly down) over the past several months but is still more attractive than those. Some catalysts are really clear and imminent with limited downside risks.

So it's not only a matter of when, but also which one.

$LQ45 $IHSG $IDX30