IHSG akan segera naik?

Sejak Sept/Oct 2024 IHSG terus trend turun. Dari mendekati ATH pada level hampir 8,000 hingga sekarang sekitar 6,800. Gara2nya salah satu adalah terpilihnya Trump sbg presiden AS. Trump dari awal sudah bilang akan buat kebijakan tarif. Barang2 dari luar yg masuk ke AS dipajaki. Tentu hal ini akan mengganggu perdagangan dunia. Makanya pasar saham dunia, terutama negara berkembang turun. Selain itu kebijakan tarif akan naikkan inflasi di AS. Ditambah lagi Trump juga bilang akan deportasi penduduk ilegal, yg akan membuat AS kekurangan pekerja dgn upah murah, yg akan juga naikkan inflasi. Kenaikan inflasi akan menunda penurunan suku bunga oleh Fed, sehingga negatif utk pasar saham negara2 berkembang. Sebaliknya pasar saham AS sedang ATH, karena Trump katanya akan turunkan pajak korporat, dan akan hapus banyak regulasi. Dana asing di seluruh dunia langsung balik ke AS, menyebabkan penurunan pasar saham engara2 berkembang termasuk IHSG.

Akhir2 ini mulai muncul suara2 bahwa tarif yg katanya akan dikenakan oleh Trump kemungkinan skalanya jauh lebih kecil dari yg ditakutkan. Atau mungkin malah tidak jadi dikenakan. Contohnya keputusan Trump mengenakan tarif 25% ke Kanada dan Meksiko, yg sebelum jalan malah ditunda 30 hari oleh Trump sendiri. Mungkin nanti2 juga nggak jadi. Kalau betul AS tidak jadi berlakukan tarif, atau skalanya ternyata kecil saja, maka dana asing yg Oct 2024 balik ke AS akan kembali lagi ke pasar negara2 berkembang. Karena memang pasar saham negara2 berkembang masih murah dibandigkan paasar saham AS. Berita lengkap di sini https://cutt.ly/breHigLH

Point2 penting sbb
- Investors are warming up toward Asian emerging-market stocks as the dollar’s rally pauses and US President Donald Trump’s initial tariff onslaught proves less punishing than earlier envisaged 😎
- Money managers snapped up more than $700 million of shares in Asian developing nations outside China in the five days through Friday (21 Feb), ending seven straight weeks of outflows 😎
- An MSCI index of regional equities excluding China handed investors a return of 1.8% last week, trimming its decline over the past six months to about 12%
- signs the tide may be turning for regional equities after they underperformed their global peers last year due to the strengthening dollar and concern they would suffer from global trade tensions
- MSCI Asia EM ex-China Index still looks relatively cheap, trading at some 15 times its one-year forward earnings estimates, versus 22 times for the S&P 500 Index 😎
- “With slower and smaller ‘Trump Tariffs’ than expected, sentiment in these markets will likely improve and spur some rebound. Less barriers to trade, coupled with a weaker dollar and rate cuts, sets up a more pro-growth global environment.”: Han Piow Liew, fund manager Maitri Asset Management Pte 😎
- Investors are increasingly taking the view that the tariff threats announced by Trump are mainly negotiating tactics
- Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar has dropped more than 3% from its high in early February as tariff fears have cooled
- “Reduced trade tensions, even if not fully eliminated, can create a more stable environment for businesses and investors in emerging markets. Moderation in tariffs would likely ease trade tensions, benefiting Asian economies heavily reliant on exports.”: Manish Bhargava, chief executive officer at Straits Investment Management 😎
- For now emerging-Asian stocks are attracting buyers. William Yuen, an investment director at Invesco Hong Kong Ltd., said he’s added exposure to some Asean markets such as Indonesia and Philippines 😎

Demikianlah kiranya, kita harapkan saja memang benar bahwa tarif di AS tidak jadi diberlakukan. Sebelum Oct 2025 IHSG lumaya bullish. Mungkin setelah kekhawatiran tentang tarif mereda, IHSG akan kembali bullish. Kita harapkan saja.

Semoga bermanfaat 🙂

NB: Bagi pendukung Trump di forum ini, sy tidak Pro atau Kontra sm Trump. Sy tidak peduli sm dia. Bukan presiden saya juga. Sy cuma perhatian sm kebijakan2 dia yg bisa mempengaruhi porto saya. Setiap komentar harap dibatasi hanya tetang ekonomi.

$IHSG $SPTO $MLBI