Ke mana arah IHSG setelah ini?

Rasanya masih baru saja IHSG bullish. Dari pertengahan Agustus di 7300an (sama seperti di awal tahun) tiba2 sampai ke 7900 di pertengahan Sept. Gara2 nya apa lagi kalau bukan Fed yg mulai cut rate pada awal Sept. Bukan cuma IHSG saja, tapi semua Emerging Market. Ketika bunga di AS turun, dana dari AS ramai2 mengalir ke EM.
Tapi sejak Trump menang Pilpres, keadaan berbalik. Dari 7800an sekarang IHSG sudah jadi 7100an, sudah dibawah level awal tahun. Gara2 nya secara singkat sbb:
1. Trump akan turunkan pajak perusahaan AS => nilai perusahaan naik => harga saham naik => dana AS pulang kampung utk ikut menikmati kenaikan harga saham ini
2. Trump ancam akan kenakan bea masuk 60% utk barang China dan 10% utk barang dari negara lainnya => menurunkan ekonomi negara2 dunia. Terutama EM yg banyak tergantung export ke AS.
3. Bea masuk barang import akan naikkan inflasi => Fed kemungkinan harus naikkan suku bunga lagi
4. No 1-4 sebabkan USD menguat => Biasanya USD naik maka IHSG akan turun

Bagi yg sudah TP di puncak, ya congratz! sekarang dah punya amunisi utk nanti serok bawah.

Utk bbrp wkt ke depan kira2 bgmn? IHSG terus tertekan utk jangka waktu lama, atau ini sudah siap2 mau rebound?
Menurut saya jawabannya tergantung efek mana yg akan bertahan lebih lama: efek kenaikan EM sejak Agustus atau efek Trump. Mari kita bedah.

Kenaikan EM sejak Aguistus terutama dipicu Fed cut rate. tTapi bukan itu saja penyebabnya. Menurut Lazard Asset Management ada faktor2 lain juga. Berita lengkap di sini https://cutt.ly/VeJDa5tX
https://cutt.ly/JeJDa5Eo
Poin2 penting sbb
- EM outperformance accelerated in the final week of the Q3 as China unleashed a series of stimulus measures
- In our view, EM equity is one of the most mis-priced asset classes globally, with valuations remaining very inexpensive compared to Developed Market (DM) equity 😎
- forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.6x, compared to 18.6x for developed markets and 21.5x for the United States.
- “Over time, this nearly 40% valuation discount relative to DM, compared to a 25% historical average discount, may narrow due to stronger EM earnings growth, recovering EM profitability, attractive free cash flow yield and dividend yield, and a widening economic growth premium in EM’s favor" 😎
- Our outlook is constructive for emerging markets (EM) equities due to higher economic growth, improving corporate earnings, global monetary easing, and steep valuation discounts 😎
- Looking ahead, Fed easing and potentially more stimulus from China should be positive forces for EM equity markets, along with expectations for higher economic growth and corporate earnings growth in EM
- Efek bea masuk AS: Countries with high US exposure but less replaceable products, such as commodities, could be spared, including Chile, South Africa, and Indonesia
- EM economic growth, driven by all regions and not just China, is now starting to move higher towards 4.0% in 2024 as DM growth slows to 1.6%
- earnings growth expectations have moved higher for EM compared to DM, including the United States, over 2024 and 2025. Consensus earnings growth2 for EM in 2024 and 2025 is over 15% and nearly 16%, respectively, compared to just 7% and 11% for DM and 11% and 14% for the United States
- Key EM central banks have already begun to ease monetary policy this year
- EM remains an under-owned asset class: Global portfolios are 5.3%4 allocated to EM equities. A reversion to a 20-year average allocation of 8.4% would represent inflows of $910 billion, or about 58% of current EM assets under management 😎

Jadi banyak faktor2 lain yg positif utk EM selain Fed cut rate.

Apa saja efek Trump? saya ambil dari https://cutt.ly/teJDa5Yx dan https://cutt.ly/ZeJDa6gP
poin2 penting sbb
- If the US imposes further and perhaps much larger tariffs, the case for renminbi depreciation is urgent
- Currencies across Asia will fall in tandem with the renminbi 😥
- Commodity prices also will tumble for two reasons. First, markets will see a tariff war and all the instability that comes with it as a negative for global growth. Second, global trade is dollar-denominated, which means emerging markets lose purchasing power when the dollar rises. Financial conditions will which will also weigh on commodities. That will only add to depreciation pressure on the currencies of commodity exporters 😥
- elevated geopolitical risk is making commodity prices more volatile, increasing the incidence of economic shocks
- Fed has limited room to cut interest rate because inflation will increase 😥
- The US dollar is expected to maintain its strength
- Chinese companies have adapted, with many no longer heavily dependent on exports
- initial fears about Trump's impact might be overblown, based on experiences from his first term 😎
- The Chinese government is likely to increase efforts to boost domestic growth, and emerging markets continue to benefit from several structural growth drivers, including increased global industrial capital expenditure, ongoing technological revolution, and improving shareholder returns 😎

Jadi tidak semuanya doom and gloom gara2 Trump. Ketergantungan China dan negara2 EM lainnya pada export ke AS sudah berkurang dibandingkan periode 1 Trump. Bea masuk juga kemungkinan gertak sambal saja. Secara umum sy kira jatuhnya IHSG hanya sementara. Seperti wkt Oct 23 dan Juni 24. Dua2 nya, IHSG rebound bbrp wkt kemudian dan bahkan naik lebih tinggi. Kenaikan bea masuk AS tidak akan separah yg ditakutkan. Thesis bahwa aset EM murah masih valid. China kemungkinan akan terus stimulus.

Semoga bermanfaat

$IHSG $JPFA $DMAS $SMDR $PBSA