Does history repeat itself? Some reminiscing and observation (and mostly ramblings).

For those who have been in the stock market (Bursa) long enough would remember, the last we’ve seen $BURSA / 1818 (BURSA MALAYSIA BERHAD)’s stock price breaching to RM9.00 levels were back in 2020, coincidentally in the Jul-Sept Q3 period. Also, $NOTION / 0083 (NOTION VTEC BERHAD) back then had 3 days limit up in a row, with 1 day of suspension in between. It was a time when the glove and vaccine craze was going on. $MAHSING / 8583 (MAH SING GROUP BERHAD) also ventured into glove, like how they announced that they want to venture into data centres recently (cough). Back in 2020, it was also the year of the U.S. Presidential Election…
One could draw so many parallels… that it is somehow eerily coincidental?

Bursa’s participation in terms of volume and value are nowhere near 2020 levels yet, but the trend seems to be able to surpass 2022 and 2023 levels. The OPR rate back then was only 1.75% in Jul’20 – Apr’22 and now it has returned and maintained at 3.00% since May’23. We have also been consecutively having more than 30 IPOs per year for the past 2 years.

Of course, that was then, this is now. There are also many things that have evolved and are changing:
- On the local scene, there’s a change of ruling party which implemented various measures and policies such as EPF withdrawals, discontinuation of subsidies and price controls on chicken, targeted diesel subsidy, SST rate from six percent to eight percent, implementation of e-invoicing, selling land for data centres… etc.
- On the international front, there are multiple major wars on-going and with US sanctioning Russia and weaponizing the dollar, there has been a gradual shift towards using non-dollar currencies, driven by desire to reduce dependency on the dollar.
- Freight logistics and supply chains are being severely disrupted also because of the aforementioned.
- FCPO price remains elevated at RM3-4K levels and has not gone back to pre-pandemic levels (RM2-3k levels)
- Countries are putting more emphasis on green energy and thus EV Cars, solar energy, etc are gaining traction

The million-dollar question is: how would 2H 2024 play out… or rather how would you play the cards in 2H 2024 for 2025?

Some leading questions to start off with:
- Are we in an optimistic or pessimistic market? Risk-on or risk-off mode?
- Are some sectors already overheated/undervalued? How are the risk vs reward for each investment?
- Reshuffling of portfolio: how would you allocate your capital to various asset (bonds / equities / MMF / cash / currency / property, etc…)?