@jiaming8yap I think you miss the illegal cigarettes market, which form a big slice in the pie

FYI, the revenue erosion of BAT since 2016 is due to the expansion of illegal cigarettes. If I remember correctly, 50% of the total cigarette market in Malaysia is captured by illegal cigarettes. This rendered the brand ranking (i.e. no.1, no.2) irrelevant since the ranking can't consider the illegal cigarettes due to the lack of data

Why illegal cigarettes can be so strong? generally, it is the high tax imposed on legal cigarettes; specifically, there are hanky-panky behind the scenes, if you know you know

story:
BAT's traditional cigarettes segment are already mature and shall remain stagnant unless the government effectively regulates the illegal cigarettes industry or reduces the tax on legal cigarettes. Both are pretty unlikely.

$BAT / 4162 (BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (MALAYSIA) BERHAD) 's growth story focuses on the new e-cigarettes segment pioneer by its Vuse brand. However, this segment face intense competition from other brands such as Relx (China), Philip Morris (Malboro & IQOS), Mevius (Japan). On top of that, there are illegal e-cigarettes too, which tend to be cheaper than its legal counterpart.

Additionally, assuming one is not a smoker, and don't have any channel to access to the latest development in the cigarette industry, it will be hard for the one to evaluate the customers experience and competitive strength of BAT.

Given the unpredictability, I don't know how to evaluate BAT and will move on to other investment opportunities I know how to evaluate