$PYFA #DISCLAIMER ON!!

I want to share my personal opinion about PYFA. Feel free to correct me if I make some mistake. Cheers!!!

According to recent news, which has been circulating since December 2023,
PYFA, through its subsidiary PYFA Australia Pty Ltd, has signed a Scheme Implementation Deed to acquire Probiotic Limited. Probiotic Limited is a well-known manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals listed under the ticker PBP on the ASX. The price per share for the acquisition could be around AUD3, with 100% ownership representing a valuation of IDR 2.5 Tn.

I noted my view as follows:

1. Let's look back to 2021, when the controlling shareholder of PYFA changed, with Rejuve Global Investment (RGI) and PT Starindo Kencana Sejahtera (SKS) acquiring 53.85% of the shares from Pyridam Internasional (PYI) for IDR 222 billion, equivalent to IDR 770 per share. In September 2020 - October, Rejavu Global Investment conducted a tender offer as the requirement. The tender Offer price was the same as the acquisition price. PYFA's market price rose more than six times in just two months, from IDR 200 in May 2020 to IDR 1.575 in July 2020.

2. Probiotic Limited is a profitable company, while PYFA has been incurring losses for the past three quarters in 2023. However, the consolidation of Probiotic Limited could help PYFA's books show a profit.

3. Currently, Probiotic Limited's market capitalization is AUD 234,21 million, equivalent to IDR 2.5 trillion (AUD/IDR: 10.450). For a company that could make AUD11 Million in 2023, the P/E Ratio is 22.15, and the acquisition price for Probiotic Limited is considered fair enough.

4. PYFA is set to issue new shares, up to a maximum of 16 billion and revised up to 38 billion, in line with the acquisition plan. This amount is more than 32-76 times the current shares.
WOW, a Big Sale !!! 🧐 🧐 🧐
If the company aims for a valuation of IDR 2.5 - IDR 3 billion, then the execution price could be around IDR 156 - IDR 187 (if the issued shares are max 16 bio) or IDR 65 – IDR 78 (if the issued share is max 38bio). This price is much lower than the current market price of IDR 1.170. To be honest, if they issue 38 billion with targeted capital IDR 2,5 – 3 billion, it seems to be unfair. This is my personal view, though. HAHA
The combination of debt and direct or indirect equity contribution will fully fund this. Debt will contribute less as PYFA's debt ratio has reached 2.49x, given the restriction on taking on too much debt.

Additionally, I assume that a new controlling shareholder will enter the company. 🥳 🥳

5. As PYFA Australia Pty Ltd takes over 100% ownership, Can I say It is more likely a backdoor listing scheme in the Australian Market, with PYFA Australia Pty Ltd listed legally under the ticker PBP (ASX), isn’t it? Question is why take whole ownership ? to be Going Private Company is on the plan ? 🧐 🧐 🧐 I have no clue haha

The question remains: WHO WILL BE THE NEW CONTROLLING SHAREHOLDER OF PYFA ??
😵 😵 😵