MRCB - A prospective beneficiary of Budget 2024 with the chance to win contracts for the Penang LRT and MRT 3

$MRCB / 1651 (MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORPORATION BERHAD), with its successful track record in projects like the Light Rail Transit 3 (LRT3) and other railway initiatives such as the Mass Rapid Transit 2 (MRT2), is well-positioned to potentially secure upcoming railway projects like the Penang LRT and MRT3.

According to RHB Investment Bank analyst Adam Mohamed Rahim, this optimism is grounded in his recent visit to the LRT3 depot in Johan Setia, Klang, where he personally assessed the project's progress. He noted that the LRT3 project has reached approximately 60% completion, implying that once the project is finished, MRCB stands to gain around RM4.7 billion in revenue.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the overall progress of the LRT3 construction route is approximately 86.5%, and it is anticipated to be completed by March 2025. Therefore, it is estimated that the remaining work for LRT3, accounting for 13.5% or roughly RM1.6 billion, along with a net profit of RM48 million (assuming a net margin of 3%), will be recognized by MRCB from the third quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2025.

Adam explained that in a previous joint venture with $GKENT / 3204 (GEORGE KENT (MALAYSIA) BERHAD), MRCB was initially appointed as the project delivery partner (PDP) by Prasarana Malaysia Bhd for the construction of the 37-kilometer LRT3 in September 2015, with an initial allocation of RM9 billion, excluding land acquisition costs at that time. He highlighted that the RM9 billion figure did not cover other costs, such as the PDP fee of 6%, additional consulting fees, operational and overhead costs, and interest payments during the construction, resulting in a cost overrun of RM31.7 billion.

Nonetheless, in July 2018, the cost of the LRT3 project was significantly reduced by about 47% to RM16.6 billion. Following the cost reduction, the PDP model was restructured into a fixed-price contract in November 2018, with the MRCB-George Kent joint venture serving as the turnkey contractor valued at RM11.9 billion. Subsequently, in September 2021, MRCB acquired George Kent's 50% stake in the joint venture company established to build the LRT3 for RM53 million, thereby taking full ownership of the project.

Adam further noted that the cost reduction in the LRT3 project in July 2018 resulted in the cancellation of six stations. He revealed that Prasarana had initiated discussions with MRCB in the fourth quarter of 2022 regarding the potential reinstatement of five previously canceled stations, excluding the Persiaran Hishamuddin station, which could amount to RM1 billion in value.

RHB Investment Bank continues to maintain a 'buy' recommendation for MRCB shares, setting a target price of RM0.55. A near-term re-rating catalyst would be securing flood mitigation projects, particularly in Selangor, which MRCB was pre-qualified for worth RM500 million.

Additionally, UOBKH also maintains an optimistic outlook for MRCB's future. As of the end of the second quarter of 2023, MRCB's unbilled outstanding order book remains robust at RM16.4 billion, providing long-term earnings visibility. It's worth noting that the order book would be reduced to RM2.7 billion if the RM10 billion Bukit Jalil Sentral project (which had been inactive in the past) and other fee-based contracts were excluded. Furthermore, MRCB boasts a substantial tender book of around RM30 billion, primarily consisting of projects like MRT3, Iskandar Malaysia Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), a power plant in Kulim, and various smaller projects. Given MRCB's proven track record in railway projects and its solid balance sheet capable of meeting Private Funding Initiatives (PFI) requirements, it is considered a strong contender for MRT3 packages.