Saham: LPCK - PT. Lippo Cikarang Tbk

$DMAS pada fokus ke $LPCK karena ada Meikarta jadi rusun subsidi, saya sih lebih melirik DELTAMAS

(Swing Trading)

$LPCK
Short Term Trend : Bullish
Medium Term Trend : Bullish
Trading Buy : 810
Target Price 1 : 935
Target Price 2 : 1035
Stop Loss : 690

$ANTM
Short Term Trend : Bullish
Medium Term Trend : Bullish
Trading Buy : 4080
Target Price 1 : 4500
Target Price 2 : 4750
Stop Loss : 3660

$LPCK
Investasi di Kabupaten Bekasi terus tumbuh pesat, menjadi tertinggi di Jawa Barat. PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk (LPCK) menangkap peluang ini dengan memperluas proyek hunian dan komersial untuk mendukung permintaan yang meningkat dan memperkuat kinerja perusahaan.

📊 ANALISIS TEKNIKAL — $LPCK (Daily)

1. Tren Utama 📈
Kondisi tren: Uptrend jangka menengah
Struktur harga: Breakout kuat dari base panjang, diikuti pullback sehat
➡️ Bias: 🟢 Bullish
📌 Higher low terbentuk di area 780-an setelah lonjakan

2. Moving Average (MA) 📐
Posisi harga:
🟢 Di atas MA pendek
🟢 Di atas MA menengah
🟢 Di atas MA panjang
Susunan MA:
MA pendek > MA menengah > MA panjang
➡️ Bullish alignment valid
📌 Area MA penting: 780 – 800

3. Momentum ⚡
Bollinger Band:
Harga kembali menekan upper band setelah konsolidasi
➡️ Momentum kembali menguat
RSI:
±60
➡️ Bullish sehat, belum overbought
MACD:
Masih di atas garis nol, histogram mulai mengecil negatif
➡️ Momentum sempat koreksi, berpotensi lanjut naik jika histogram balik positif

4. Volume 📊
Lonjakan volume saat breakout awal sangat signifikan
Pullback diiringi volume mengecil
➡️ Pola koreksi sehat
Volume mulai meningkat lagi saat rebound
➡️ Ada akumulasi lanjutan

5. Money Flow Index (MFI) 💰
MFI: ±56
➡️ Aliran dana masih relatif masuk
➡️ Belum overbought
📌 Mendukung kelanjutan tren selama bertahan di atas support

6. Support & Resistance 🧱
🟢 Support:
800
780
760
🔴 Resistance:
900
960
1.050

7. Skenario Harga 🧭
🟢 Skenario bullish:
Bertahan di atas 800
➡️ Uji 900 → 960
🟡 Skenario sideways:
Range 780 – 900
➡️ Konsolidasi sebelum arah berikutnya
🔴 Skenario gagal:
Break <760
➡️ Potensi koreksi lebih dalam ke 700-an

8. Strategi Entry 🎯
🟡 Buy on Weakness:
Buy: 780 – 810
SL: <760
TP: 900 – 960
🔵 Buy on Breakout (Konfirmasi):
Buy: close >900
SL: <830
TP: 960 – 1.050
🔴 Buy Agresif:
Buy: 830 – 850 saat volume meningkat
SL: <800
TP: 900 – 960

9. Manajemen Risiko 🛡️
⚠️ Sudah naik signifikan dari base panjang
📉 Waspadai rejection di area 900
✂️ Disarankan ambil profit parsial di resistance terdekat
❌ Hindari entry jika volume tidak mendukung saat breakout

10. Kesimpulan 🧠
🟢 $LPCK masih dalam struktur uptrend menengah
📈 Pullback tergolong sehat dan berpotensi lanjutkan kenaikan
✅ Menarik untuk swing trader selama bertahan di atas 780

DYOR

$IHSG

🔬 STOCKBOT QUANTUM ANALYTICS
║ Institutional Grade Market Insight ║

🔥 MARKET PULSE: $BRPT
📅 Data per: 12 Februari 2026 | 🚦 Status: BEARISH-STABILIZING ⚠️📉🛡️ (Post-Crash with Buyback Floor)

📰 INTELEJEN BERITA (Radar 1 Bulan Terakhir - 2026)
🗞️ Headline Kunci:
"BUYBACK RAKSASA Rp1 TRILIUN (4 Feb - 3 Mei 2026) untuk Stabilisasi Harga" - 3 Februari 2026

"CRASH BRUTAL: -25% dalam 10 Hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb), Tertinggal Saham Grup Barito" - 8 Februari 2026

"Insider Buying: Prajogo Pangestu Borong 3M Saham @ Rp2.830 + 442K @ Rp2.560" - 15-23 Januari 2026

"IHSG Trading Halt -8% (28 Jan), MSCI Freeze FIF/NOS Indonesia" - 27-28 Januari 2026

"JP Morgan Upgrade to Neutral, Target Price Rp870" - Desember 2025

💡 Dampak Fundamental:
Sentimen MIXED LEANING CAUTIOUS—ini adalah classic panic sell dengan buyback lifeline. BRPT crash -25% dalam 10 hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb) bersama grup Barito (BREN -28%) akibat IHSG trading halt + MSCI freeze. TAPI management + insider response AGRESIF: buyback Rp1T (4 Feb - 3 Mei) + Prajogo accumulate 3,44M shares @ avg Rp2.788.

Harga Rp2.200 saat ini = -22,3% from Prajogo's last buy Rp2.830—ini adalah DISCOUNT to insider price.

MEGA RED FLAG #1 - Crash Brutal -25% dalam 10 Hari:
BRPT ambles >25% dari 27 Januari hingga 6 Februari 2026 —ini adalah WORST performer bahkan vs BREN yang turun -28%. Crash ini triggered by:

IHSG trading halt -8% pada 28 Januari (first halt in years)

MSCI freeze FIF/NOS untuk Indonesia di February 2026 review —NO passive inflows from ETFs

Global risk-off sentiment + local panic selling

Grup Barito menjadi sasaran utama profit-taking karena valuasi tinggi + foreign ownership heavy.

MEGA CATALYST #1 - Buyback Rp1 Triliun (ACTIVE NOW):
BRPT announce buyback Rp1 triliun pada 3 Februari, mulai 4 Februari - 3 Mei 2026 (3 bulan).

Detail Buyback:

Dana: Rp1 triliun max (bertahap)

Sumber: Excess cash internal, NOT mengganggu operasional

Durasi: 4 Feb - 3 Mei 2026 (3 bulan, masih ongoing 1 minggu++)

Broker: PT Sucor Sekuritas

Tujuan: Stabilisasi harga + optimalisasi struktur modal

Buyback Rp1T dengan saham @ Rp2.200 = potential buyback ~454 juta saham (0,48% dari 93,75 miliar shares outstanding) —ini adalah STRONG demand floor Rp2.000-2.300.

CATALYST #2 - Insider Buying MASSIVE (Prajogo Pangestu):
Prajogo Pangestu (Komisaris, pemilik 71,36%) AGRESIF accumulate di tengah volatility:

15 Jan 2026: 3 juta saham @ Rp2.830 = Rp8,49 miliar

23 Jan 2026: 442.600 saham @ Rp2.560 = Rp1,13 miliar

Total: 3,44 juta saham, avg price ~Rp2.788

Kepemilikan naik dari 66,898 miliar → 66,901 miliar saham (71,36% → 71,363%) —ini adalah STRONGEST insider buying signal: owner dengan 71%+ masih accumulate aggressively.

Harga current Rp2.200 = -21,1% DISCOUNT vs Prajogo's last buy Rp2.788—ini adalah CHEAPER than insider price.

Minor Positive #1 - JP Morgan Upgrade (Dec 2025):
JP Morgan upgrade BRPT dari Underweight → Neutral dengan target price Rp870 hingga Des 2025 —target 1-year old tapi masih +39,5% from current Rp2.200.

Rationale:

Ekspansi ke kawasan industri via anak usaha Griya Idola

Pefindo rating idA+ (Single A Plus) dengan outlook Stable

Diversifikasi portofolio beyond petrochemical

Minor Positive #2 - Fundamentals Solid 2024:
FY2024 Performance:

Revenue: Rp2,387 miliar (vs Rp2,760M di 2023 = -13,5% YoY decline)

Laba bersih: Rp56,48 miliar (vs Rp26,12M di 2023 = +116% YoY growth)

Gross margin improvement despite revenue decline

H1/2025 (latest available):

Total revenue: Rp40,47 triliun (Q2/25 data)—WAIT, ini suspicious, kemungkinan typo atau rupiah → dollar confusion

Net income Q2/25: Rp8,63 triliun—data inconsistency, need clarification

Red Flag #2 - Revenue Decline 2024:
Revenue drop -13,5% YoY (Rp2,387M vs Rp2,760M) di 2024 —ini adalah headwind dari petrochemical cycle weakness.

Red Flag #3 - Negative Cash Flow from Operations:
Cash from operations: -Rp110,18 miliar (2024) —ini adalah concerning, meski buyback didanai dari excess cash.

Red Flag #4 - Market-Wide Panic:

IHSG trading halt -8% (28 Jan)

MSCI freeze FIF/NOS = NO passive inflows

Grup Barito jadi target selling (BREN -28%, BRPT -25%)

🔗 Korelasi Makro:
Petrochemical Cycle: Weak demand, oversupply concerns

MSCI Downgrade Risk: Freeze FIF/NOS = foreign selling pressure

IHSG Volatility: Trading halt trauma, risk-off sentiment

Lotte Chemical Indonesia: Rp59,37T project start production Mar 2025 = competition

Government Support: Petrochemical as National Strategic Project (under review)

📈 BEDAH TEKNIKAL (Chart & Price Action)
📊 Tren Utama:
SEVERE DOWNTREND Post-Crash. Harga crash dari Rp2.000 base (Sep 2025) → Rp2.340 peak (late Jan 2026) = +17% → COLLAPSE to Rp2.000 low (early Feb) = -14,5% → bounce weak ke Rp2.200 saat ini.

🧱 Key Levels:
Support Kuat (Lantai):

Rp2.000-2.100 (Support Immediate - CRITICAL FLOOR, buyback zone, recent low, psychological level)

Rp1.870-1.970 (Support Major - pre-rally base, jika tembus = panic extreme)

Rp1.700-1.800 (Support Critical - mid-2025 consolidation, last stand)

Resistance (Atap):

Rp2.200-2.280 (Resistance Immediate - CURRENT PRICE, bekas support broken, mini supply)

Rp2.340-2.366 (Resistance Medium-Term - recent peak, heavy selling wall)

Rp2.500-2.830 (Resistance Major - Prajogo buy zone, strong psychological + insider cost basis)

🕯️ Pola Candlestick & Volume:
RSI 14: Di level 40.4 - approaching oversold (sub-40), masih ada room turun tapi nearing bottom

MACD: Deep negative (-259.90, massive divergence), histogram merah panjang—momentum bearish EXTREME tapi potentially exhausted

Volume: 160.49M hari ini, elevated—panic volume masih tinggi

Accumulation/Distribution: Net selling -966.04M—ini DISTRIBUTION CLIMAX, strongest selling pressure

Price Action: Red candle -3,51% dengan volume 160M + net sell -966M = capitulation ongoing tapi approaching exhaustion

Pattern: "Right Shoulder", "Triangle" annotated—Head & Shoulders completion + descending triangle = double bearish pattern

⚡ STRATEGI STOCKBOT (Keputusan Final)
REKOMENDASI: WAIT & SEE / CONTRARIAN BUY (SMALL SIZE) ⏸️💎 (Knife Still Falling, But Floor Visible) | Risk Profile: HIGH-SPECULATIVE

🚨 PERINGATAN KERAS - CATCHING FALLING KNIFE WITH GLOVES:
DO NOT buy big size sampai capitulation complete. BRPT adalah post-crash stabilization dengan conflicting signals:

BEARISH FACTORS (60% weight):

Crash brutal -25% dalam 10 hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb)

Net selling -966M hari ini = DISTRIBUTION CLIMAX ongoing

MACD -259.90 = momentum bearish extreme

Head & Shoulders pattern complete

Revenue decline -13,5% YoY 2024

Cash flow operations negative -Rp110M

MSCI freeze FIF/NOS = NO passive inflows

Petrochemical cycle weak (oversupply concerns)

BULLISH FACTORS (40% weight):

Buyback Rp1T active (4 Feb - 3 Mei) = floor support Rp2.000-2.300

Insider buying: Prajogo accumulate 3,44M shares @ avg Rp2.788 = current -21% DISCOUNT

RSI 40.4 = approaching oversold <40

Laba bersih +116% YoY 2024 (Rp56,48M vs Rp26,12M)

JP Morgan target Rp870 (+39,5% from current)

Pefindo rating idA+ Stable

Net Assessment: 60% bearish vs 40% bullish = CAUTIOUS WAIT, tapi setup contrarian emerging IF support holds.

📊 SKENARIO PROBABILITAS:
SCENARIO A - Further Flush (50% Probability):

Target drop: Rp1.970-2.100 (retest absolute low, panic final wave)

Trigger: IHSG break 8.000, foreign selling continues, Q4 results disappoint

Action: This is BEST BUY zone IF buyback active + volume spike >250M

SCENARIO B - Sideways Grind (30% Probability):

Range: Rp2.000-2.280 selama 4-8 minggu

Buyback absorb selling, tapi momentum weak

Action: AVOID—dead money trap, volatility tinggi

SCENARIO C - V-Shape Recovery (20% Probability):

Catalyst: IHSG stabilize >8.500, buyback aggressive, insider add more

Target bounce: Rp2.500-2.830 (+14-29% from current)

Low probability tanpa catalyst major

❌ CONDITIONAL ENTRY (CONTRARIAN PLAY - HIGH RISK):
IF MUST SPECULATE (MAX 2-3% of portfolio):

Entry 1: Rp 2.000-2.100 (50% porsi) - ONLY IF daily volume >200M + net buying positive (capitulation reversal signal)

Entry 2: Rp 1.970-2.050 (30% porsi) - Absolute low retest dengan buyback confirmation

Entry 3: Rp 2.200-2.280 (20% porsi) - Breakout above current with volume >250M (reversal confirmation)

Target Profit (Speculative - 3-6 bulan):

TP1: Rp 2.500 (+13-27% from entry) - Prajogo cost basis, psychological resistance

TP2: Rp 2.830 (+28-43%) - Insider buy zone retest, IF buyback + fundamentals support

TP3: Rp 870 (JP Morgan target, +39,5%, 12-18 bulan) - VERY UNLIKELY tanpa fundamental catalyst strong

🛡️ Proteksi (Stop Loss STRICT):
WAJIB CUT LOSS jika:

Daily close di bawah Rp 1.970 (breakdown absolute support = flush to Rp1.700-1.800)

Buyback stop or suspend (management give up stabilizing)

Prajogo SELL any holdings (would be shock, very low probability)

Q4 2025/Q1 2026 results disaster (revenue decline accelerate >-20% or net loss)

IHSG break 7.500 (systemic risk, all stocks flush)

Net selling sustains >800M for 5 consecutive days (distribution not exhausted)

🎯 FOR CURRENT HOLDERS:
Action 1: IF avg cost >Rp2.500, cut loss 50% at Rp2.200-2.280 bounce (reduce risk)

Action 2: IF avg cost Rp2.000-2.200, HOLD with SL Rp1.970 strict (buyback support)

Action 3: Average down ONLY at Rp1.970-2.050 IF volume spike >250M + net buying positive (max 20% additional)

📝 INSTRUKSI CHIEF (KESIMPULAN):
"BRPT adalah textbook 'when elephants fight, the grass suffers'—crash -25% dalam 10 hari (27 Jan - 6 Feb) terseret IHSG trading halt -8% + MSCI freeze FIF/NOS + grup Barito panic selling (BREN -28%), TAPI management + insider response WARRIOR MODE: buyback Rp1T aktif (4 Feb - 3 Mei, baru 1 minggu jalan) + Prajogo Pangestu (71,36% owner) borong 3,44M saham @ avg Rp2.788 pada 15-23 Jan = current Rp2.200 adalah -21% DISCOUNT to insider price. Net sell -966M hari ini, RSI 40.4 approaching oversold, MACD -259.90 extreme bearish, volume 160M panic—ini adalah CAPITULATION zone tapi belum complete. Fundamentals mixed: laba +116% YoY 2024 (Rp56M vs Rp26M) tapi revenue -13,5%, cash flow operations negatif -Rp110M. JP Morgan target Rp870 (+39,5%). Strategy: DON'T catch knife NOW—WAIT for net buying positive + volume >250M + daily close >Rp2.100 (stabilization confirmation). CONTRARIAN entry Rp1.970-2.100 IF capitulation complete dengan stop loss STRICT Rp1.970. This is 50% probability further flush vs 20% V-recovery = ODDS NOT in your favor yet. Buyback Rp1T adalah lifeline tapi need 2-4 weeks absorb selling. When insider buys at -21% premium to you AND buyback active, it's NOT value trap—it's TIMING trap. Patience wins. BRPT at Rp2.200 with Rp1T buyback + Prajogo @Rp2.788 = asymmetric setup IF you can stomach -10% more downside to Rp1.970. Cash is king until dust settles." ⏸️💎⚠️

⚠️ Disclaimer: Riset ini disusun oleh Algoritma StockBot berbasis data real-time 12 Februari 2026. BRPT berada dalam fase post-crash capitulation dengan risk/reward UNFAVORABLE for aggressive entry (50% further flush risk vs 20% V-recovery). This is knife falling with buyback gloves—buyback Rp1T (4 Feb - 3 Mei) providing floor Rp2.000-2.300 BUT need time (2-4 weeks) to absorb -966M net sell per day. Insider buying Prajogo @ Rp2.788 (15-23 Jan) vs current Rp2.200 = -21,1% discount, strong signal BUT timing early (bought before -25% crash). MSCI freeze FIF/NOS + IHSG trauma + petrochemical cycle weak = macro headwinds persist. Revenue -13,5% YoY + cash flow ops negative = fundamental concerns despite laba +116%. 50% probability retest Rp1.970-2.100 before sustainable recovery. ONLY contrarian trade at Rp1.970-2.100 with capitulation signals (volume >250M + net buy positive) with MAX 2-3% portfolio + SL strict Rp1.970. Keputusan investasi tetap di tangan Anda. DYOR (Do Your Own Research). When panic selling is -966M/day and RSI only 40.4 (not <30), knife still falling. Wait for blood in streets to dry before buying.

$LPCK $KIOS

LPCK

Lippo Cikarang Tbk

815

-20

(-2.40%)

1.41 M

4.76 M

Company Background