Celebi Hava - $CASS
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Celebi Hava (Turkey)
1. Business Growth:
Celebi continues to expand its global operations in ground handling and airport services. In 2024, its revenue and profitability improved, driven by rising international travel and strategic market entries. However, Turkish lira volatility and higher operational costs remain notable risks.
2. Competitive Advantage:
Celebi's competitive edge lies in its geographical diversity and advanced operational capabilities. Long-standing airline partnerships and investment in automation technology bolster its standing against competitors. Nevertheless, market dynamics in Europe and Asia could lead to margin pressure due to competitive pricing and higher energy costs.
3. Valuation:
Celebi’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 10-12x, a level that reflects moderate undervaluation compared to peers in the aviation services sector, which generally range between 15-18x. Its inclusion in indices like S&P Global BMI underscores market confidence. While the valuation is attractive, geopolitical risks and currency fluctuations in Turkey necessitate cautious entry for investors.
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Cardig Aero Services (CASS, Indonesia)
1. Business Growth:
CASS has sustained robust revenue growth of 27.45% in 2023, reflecting recovery in Indonesia's aviation and tourism sectors. Key revenue drivers include its diversified services such as ground handling, cargo, and catering operations.
2. Competitive Advantage:
CASS benefits from its dominance in Indonesia’s aviation services market and localized expertise. Its diverse service offerings provide resilience against sector-specific downturns. However, competition from international players entering Indonesia remains a potential challenge. Also will be an interesting year in 2025 is maneuvre from injourney and its subsidiaries.
3. Cash Position and Debt Ratio:
CASS's cash reserves are stable, covering short-term liabilities and 1.2B definitely more than enough to maintain sufficient liquidity for operations. Its debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, at approximately 0.45, reflecting disciplined financial management. This level is manageable and supports further expansion while maintaining financial stability.
4. Valuation:
CASS trades at a P/E ratio of 10.93, reflecting a fair valuation relative to growth potential and industry averages. Given its 135.42% stock price gain over the past year, future performance will depend on its ability to sustain growth amid macroeconomic pressures.
At a market price of IDR 1,730 as of November 2024, CASS offers an upside of approximately 43.2%, with a projected intrinsic value of IDR 2,476 based on discounted cash flow models. This reflects investor confidence in sustained growth and sector recovery. However, its valuation also highlights the need for cautious optimism given macroeconomic uncertainties even though BPS datas on YoY tourism-aviation/airport data showing strong growth both for local and foreign tourists.
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Expert Opinions
Experts regard both companies as strong performers in the recovering aviation sector. Celebi’s global presence offers resilience and steady growth, while CASS benefits from Indonesia’s dynamic market. However, geopolitical risks for Celebi and potential competition for CASS warrant attention.
Concluding my perspectives
CASS is a robust domestic play with manageable debt levels, adequate cash flow and strong cash to support growth. Its moderate debt ratio provides flexibility for expansion while safeguarding financial health.
Celebi is a globally diversified investment offering moderate valuation upside. Its relatively low P/E ratio compared to peers provides an opportunity for value-oriented investors. However, its reliance on the Turkish market's stability remains a key risk.
Investors with a higher risk appetite might find Celebi attractive for global exposure, while CASS offers more on domestic play & growth within a rapidly expanding domestic market. Being aware of domestic investment alternatives are shrinking as we see a fucking jokes & clashes on politics , government budgets, corruption, ugly development strategy and inefficient government structure & bureaucracy, i think strong sectoral growth in tourism surely makes CASS as a rare investment opportunity.
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