Sebenarnya drop in revenue di $IPTV and $MSKY are expected. Few years ago pak HT sudah menjelaskan bhw mrk decide to partner with FTTH provider ketimbang mengelar jaringan optik sendiri. Sy rasa peak of this decision is when they cancel the acquisition of Linknet.
Sy rasa it is a correct decision on few fronts:
1. Internally YoY growth broadband division dr MNC sangat lambat. (meskipun mereka 3rd largest in Indonesia from FTTH point of view) i.e. customers cuma +/-300K while home passes mereka mencapai 1.5 Juta (under-utilized). Jadi ROI dari FTTH is not good enough. Compare to satellite-based pay tv yg QoQ terus meningkat.
2. Excess capacity dari FTTH bisa di lease lebih murah. (even PLN develop ini, jadi kompetisi dari FTTH ini bakal naik, not only from telco company)
3. Dari content delivery infrastructure aspect, telco company (Telkom, Indosat, XL, Fren) dan Media company hanya ada 2 outcomes, partner atau competitor. Content delivery itu cuma 2, via satellite atau internet. Selama ini satellite dari MNC itu lease dari Telkom dan perusahaan lain.
4. Mengelar fiber optic is capital intensive dan depresiasinya bakal sangat gede (i.e. look at depreciation dari telco company. Even telco company start to lease or partner rather than build their own capacity). kalau gak bisa fully utilized seperti MNC maka investmentnya bakal sangat unproductive.
Jadi lebih bagus kalau MNC focus on content production (drama, anime, etc), content aggregation dan focus mengembangkan aspect entertainment yg lain seperti games, outdoor entertainment dari pada focus on the infrastructurnya.
Dari aspect revenue pasti bakal menurun tp harga yg di bayar Indosat is reasonable 875.86M untuk +/-300K subscribers, kurang lebih revenue 1 tahun. Dan 2.42T untuk 1.5M home passes to Asianet dan clientnya masih tetap di MNC play.
This drop in revenue will impact revenuenya $BMTR tp mereka sudah capitalize on this.
Dan untuk IPTV to expand to data center itu lebih reasonable karena internally MNC media can utilized it, and it is more scalable, less capex compared to FTTH.
The issue with MNC Media is still the advertising business of $MNCN dan $MSIN. Mereka need to move faster for other avenue to offset the decline in advertising revenue. Market of advertising industry is not growing faster enough tapi kompetisi is increasing.